Numbers Tell The Story

December 12th, 2018

Impressive numbers.

There are some who believe the difference in the Bucs defense under ousted defensive coordinator Mike Smith and current defensive shot-caller Mark Duffner is just a mere coincidence.

The numbers suggest otherwise.

In the five games Smith ran the defense this season, every opponent (including the Dan Marino of our time, Mitch Trubisky) threw for over 300 yards passing.

In the eight games Duffner has taken over, a Bucs opponent has yet to throw for over 300 yards in a game. And that includes the likes of Drew Brees, pouty Cam Newton, Baker Mayfield and Alex Smith.

Further, in five of those games, Duffner’s Bucs-led defense held foes to under 200 yards passing.

Does that make anyone think the stars just magically aligned for the Bucs at the very time Smith was jettisoned?

Of course not.

33 Responses to “Numbers Tell The Story”

  1. teacherman777 Says:

    Keep Koetter!

    We have never and will never have the #1 offense in the NFL without him!

    He is an offensive mastermind!

    He will win Super Bowls with Aaron Rodgers if we fire him!

  2. Lamarcus Says:

    Duffner gets credit but this team always had good defense at home. Let’s wait and see what happens on the road.

  3. Alaskan Abdominal Snowman Says:

    Dudfner’s defense has been markedly better but at this point does it really matter? I know there are 3 games left but I don’t see how any of these coaches or GM will be here in a few weeks.
    Then it will be the off-season of hope, then the offseason of excuses, then the offseason of a coach on a hot seat, coach fired… rinse repeat.
    Only question is, will it ever end?

  4. DislocatedBucsFan Says:

    Koetter will stay. The D is much better. Offense up until jameis got hurt was stout against the saints. There after his accuracy went to hell. That led to drew being on the field with way too much time. I’m a big Jameis hater. I dislike his character and his on field performance hasn’t done anything to change my overall perspective. That being said, he’s been very good the last few weeks and if the trend were to continue he’s worth the 5th year deal. Too fragile of a moment to jettison the HC. Duff is coaching a. Maligned d very well and the team outside of ST is looking improved. Just need to find an effing RB. I’d even say let’s get Bell. He’s worth a monster chunk 2 yr deal at least.

  5. Bucsfaninchina Says:

    Even with an improved D Koetter has to WIN to keep his job.

  6. BurntOutBuc Says:

    Since 2004 (When I was old enough to watch football and grasp the fundamentals of sports) I’ve gone through terrible Head Coach to Terrible Head coach (John Gruden may be excluded). I’m sick of it and just want one more year of Koetter to prove it. Give him another chance, worst case scenario we just have to wait another year for playoffs. I don’t even remember the last time we went to the playoffs folks.

  7. Day1BucFan Says:

    We have never had an offense this good. Keep Koetter, keep Duffner, fire Licht.

  8. Gruden4President Says:

    @teacherman777 the only way Koetter wins Superbowls with Rogers would only be as an offensive coordinator.

  9. Rod Munch Says:

    Alex Smith was literally horrible, and as for those numbers keep in mind he was missing wide open guys, in particular a wide open Vernon Davis who was running completely uncovered down the field.

    Also Baker Mayfield had a bad first half, but if my memory serves right (and perhaps I’m remembering it wrong) after the Browns made halftime adjustments he was much much better and moved the ball at ease against the defense.

    So for those two I really don’t see how that’s much of an argument if the idea is to say the defense performed against two good QBs.

    As for Cam and Brees, those are legit arguments for sure. Cam was injured at some point in the game, and he had been playing bad going into the game, but still, they did what they needed to do and got a ton of turnovers.

    To me the one that is most impressive by far is Brees.

    What is more impressive overall is that guys keep getting injured and injured and injured, and yet the defense is playing the best they have all year. I think it’s pretty obvious the big change is the pressure from the defensive line – but those corners and safeties have mostly been better lately as well. It’s too bad it won’t end up mattering since the team will likely get blown up this offseason, but take this defensive line pressure we’re getting lately, then go into next year without Ryan Smith and Chris Conte on the team, and wow, huge massive upgrade.

  10. Defense Rules Says:

    @teacherman777 … “Keep Koetter! We have never and will never have the #1 offense in the NFL without him! He is an offensive mastermind!”

    Sounds like you’ve been drinking Joe’s ‘Yardage is King’ water teacherman. POINTS SCORED matter. TURNOVERS matter. TIME OF POSSESSION matters. 3RD DOWN EFFICIENCY matters. YARDAGE? Not so much.

    In a very bizarre year for the NFL overall, the Bucs have put up 5,591 TOTAL YARDS so far this year, ranking #2 in the league. But we’ve only gotten 332 points out of all those yards, and rank #10 in POINTS SCORED. A huge reason IMO is that we also happen to lead the league in TURNOVERS (yup, we rank #1 there). Interestingly, we also rank #1 in 3RD DOWN EFFICIENCY (which is spectacular, UNTIL you notice the turnovers). We also rank #11 in TIME OF POSSESSION at 30:45 mins per game average.

    Compare us to the Kansas City Chiefs performance this year. Chiefs have put up 5,687 TOTAL YARDS so far this year, ranking #1 in the league (not quite 100 yards more than we have). But they’ve scored 471 points out of all those yards, and rank #1 in POINTS SCORED (139 points MORE than we’ve scored). They rank #9 in TURNOVERS (they’ve had 15 total while we’ve had 32). Interestingly, we also rank #4 in 3RD DOWN EFFICIENCY and #23 in TIME OF POSSESSION at 29:32 mins per game average.

    So there you have 2 teams with just almost the same TOTAL YARDAGE but much different season records (Chiefs 11-2 Bucs 5-8). The one (Bucs) with the better 3RD DOWN EFFICIENCY and TOP has far fewer POINTS SCORED (as in OVER 10 PPG fewer). Doesn’t seem fair, does it … UNTIL you look at TURNOVERS.

    And before folks scream ‘OUR DEFENSE SUCKS’ look at the Chiefs defense … It’s pretty much as bad as ours on the season. They’ve given up 5,325 TOTAL YARDS (and rank #30) and 351 POINTS ALLOWED (and rank #28 there). Nope, the biggest, most obvious difference is that they don’t turn the ball over at nearly the frequency that we do. TURNOVERS are not just drive killers; they’re GAME KILLERS.

  11. westernbuc Says:

    If this carries over, and Jameis continues to play well, you have to keep Koetter and Duffner, move on from Warhop, and build a run game and secondary. This team could be legit next season with a good rookie class and free agency.

    Fact: Licht fixed the d-line. He built a pass rush. Duffner and Buckner executed.

    Koetter and Monken have the best passing offense in the league. Licht brought them players. If our QB had a run game, and continues to cut down on his turnovers (meditation works) there’s no stopping the Bucs.

    For the first time, I’d be happy if the Bucs took a running back high next year.

  12. Bucsfanman Says:

    Defense Rules – preach! That offensive ranking is a mirage. If nothing else, watch the games. We can’t run and we don’t make in-game adjustments. We kick fgs instead of scoring tds. In between the 20s we’re fine. Get in the redzone, and we treat tds like they’re the Ebola virus!
    We’re not just playing from behind because the D can’t stop anybody, we don’t score on offense.

  13. El_Buc941 Says:

    Koetter ain’t cutting it,y’all bafoons think he’s gonna get is a Superbowl?!4yrs now and he can’t even get us to the postseason! him and keep Duffner and.the defensive squad. So far under Duffner we rank #5th in every category WITH 2ND AND PRACTICE SQUAD PLAYERS. Imagine what he can do with Hargreaves and Kwon back.

    Also let’s cut Desean Jackson since.hes owed $10m next season and go get Leveon Bell. Jackson ain’t working for us and we don’t have a reliable RB that can put fear in defenses.

  14. El Buco Realisto Says:

    Does that make anyone think the stars just magically aligned for the Bucs at the very time Smith was jettisoned?

    It was the softer part of the schedule!!! That and all the new D-line rotation become a little bit more healthy!!!!

    To say that the defense is fixed now that Coach Smitty is gone, is the same as saying that the running game is fixed once then got rid of Drug Martin!!!!!!!!!!

    GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  15. Defense Rules Says:

    Realist, I thought I was the only one who noticed that (softer schedule, healthier DLine). Despite those 2 factors however, this defense is playing better across the board, and that’s what really counts. Unfortunately our offense can’t seem to take advantage of the opportunities the revived defense have presented them (more turnovers, etc). COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL seems to be non-existent in Tampa Bay.

  16. Defense Rules Says:

    Joe, just noticed something from Sunday’s boxscore … Chris Godwin was targeted 10 times, and had ONE reception for 13 yds (on which he fumbled). That’s bizarre; Chris has some of the surest hands for a young receiver that I’ve ever seen. Pretty much explains Jameis going 18-for-38 passing on the day all by itself. Is Godwin hurt?

  17. Bob in Valrico Says:

    The one thing different between Duffner and Smitty is we have more of a attacking defense. One thing Duffner has dealt with is the loss of two starting linebackers at times during his and an almost unrecognizable defensive backfield from the start of the season. So I give him credit for adjusting to deal with the rash of injuries better than Smitty did. Iwanted to give Smitty every chance,but
    coming out of the bye with no fixes to the defense did him in.

  18. Bob in Valrico Says:

    during his time

  19. bucanation Says:

    teacherman wants another 5 win season next year nothing will change but just another batch of reasons why.

  20. Colonel Angus Says:

    Defense Rules done broke it down, yards without points = dick without balls.

  21. Bob in Valrico Says:

    @ Defense Rules
    Good to see your early morning posts again. I noticed Godwin was not
    able to make an impact. Injury is a possibility. Also wonder if his confidence was
    rocked. He also had one game last year where he had mistakes in bunches.To
    his credit he came back and and has been a key contributor to our offense.
    Another good Cover Three with videos showing offensive plays in the second half
    that had very good coverage and no separation achieved by our receivers. Jameis had few options. It sure would be nice to have a back with receiving skills like Sims has to dump off passes to slow the rush down.

  22. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Koetter was very wrong twice……One, keeping Smith as DC for 2018. Two, for saying and thinking changing a coordinator in the middle of the season wouldn’t help.
    Duffner proved him wrong.

    Thanks again Defense for the time you take to make your points and backing them up with pertinent facts while many posters simply throw out wild baseless arguments.

  23. Defense Rules Says:

    @Bob in Valrico … Yup, been traveling (but nice to be back home in Valrico, for a short while at least … too cold north of here). Agree with you on Charles Sims, but when he got hurt earlier this year the Bucs had little choice but to move on. BTW, he’s tried out with a number of teams since recovering, but hasn’t hooked up with any of them yet. I credit the Saints’ more aggressive defense in the 2nd half for smothering our receivers. Combine that with our OLine peeing all over themselves and Jameis was out of options (could readily see that he was ‘frazzled’ … not the first time I’ve seen ‘happy feet’ out of him or many other QBs who were getting relentlessly pounded).

  24. Duthsty Rhothdes Says:

    Softer schedule equals better defense….this game sunday in bmore is going to be one of those ugly ugly ugly bucs losses like the ones in Oakland during the glory days. The ones where the players want to get back on the plane once they feel the 40 degree bmore chill in that nasty city will be the end of the licht and koetter ERROR

  25. El Buco Realisto Says:

    It’s funny to see the sheep, buy in to the false narrative that the DC sunk the season!!!!!! Here is a question, how was the season suppose to float, when the defensive roster was turned over 80%??????? What DC was going to have all those new guys playing at a high level right at the start of the season??????

    Sure seems like some of the local media just want to say that ” this one guy was the problem” and “what could have been” But do not want to say what really “sunk the season” Jw3 with poor play and off the field antics that lead to a suspension???????? Where are the articles on that?????? where is the poll on that???????? What happened to the high flying, high scoring offense when the backup QB (who we all know is subpar anyways) ??????????????? what could the offense do and be with just a “soild” and “accurate” QB???????????

    Why are the sheep not looking in the correct area’s????? Because they have been pointed in another direction!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  26. Alanbucsfan Says:

    Some of these posts are bizarro world

    Fitzpatrick was 2-5 as starter
    Jameis is 3-3
    Koetter was completely outcoached in the 2nd half Sunday in the most important game of the year- really a disgraceful show in front of home fans.
    Koetter is the one responsible for ruining DJax effectiveness this year.- He is a great punt returner (actually ran 1 back for td that was called back), yet Koetter wouldn’t use him last 7 games. Why?
    With DJax out of lineup- opponents secondary no longer respected deep ball, – Koetter’s scheme – Saints were able to disguise their coverages so well because they knew the deep ball was off the Bucs playbook
    Koetter does not consider run game important enough to make necessary coaching changes- he prefers throwing players under the bus

  27. Hodad Says:

    You people who want to see Koetter return are suffering from Stockholm syndrome. You know where the hostage starts to side with his captor. Koetter is the problem. Stop blaming the rest of HIS staff. He picked Smith, Warhop, and every other sorry coach. He sticks with Dotson, Benenoch, and every other poor player on the team. He’s the reason we have no running game, and R.Jones is in witness protection. It’s all on him. You’re all like abused wives who blame themselves for being beat. Get a clue. Koetter is what his record says he is, a LOSER!!

  28. El Buco Realisto Says:


    You better do some research son!!!!!! There are many coaches that were in place already when Head Coach Koetter was hired!!!!!!! The problem is not Koetter, but that it was a patch job from the disaster that was the loser lovie era!!!!!!!!! If you are going to judge the team, you need to go to the guy with the “jucie” and that is Licht right now!!!!!!!!!

    Now go back and try again “hodad”!!!!!! its 8:37 a.m. so now I just told you what time it is for the second time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  29. Troy Says:

    Duffner is doing his job. I’d like to see him stay just because I see this as the tip of the iceberg on how good he could make this defense. My issue is that Koetter isn’t a head coach so Duffner is going to get screwed because he coaches for a knucklehead.

  30. Duthsty Rhothdes Says:

    Realist right on…..koetter wasn’t given full control as the HC to hire his guys and got stuck with some horrible postition coaches and even worse personnel moves via LICHT who is top 2 worst gms in pro football

  31. Hodad Says:

    Koetter has say over who his coaches are. Koetter stuck with Smith waay to long even though he had the worst D in the NFL. Koetter hasn’t replaced Warhop even though we have one of the worst running games in the league. Koetter can’t adjust during games, and was completely out coached by Payton in the second half of last weeks games. Koetter will have back to back losing seasons. Koetter is what his record says he is, LOSER. Koetter is the one who said, if I knew how to fix things I would. You want that clown in charge of an NFL team? Then you’ll have a good seat in the stands next year, because you’ll be one of the few sheep to attend.

  32. 813bucboi Says:


    lol….give it up man….

    smitty sucks and the defense is playing better!!!!!!!!….simple as that….

    dirk sucks and will get replaced!!!!!!!….simple as that


  33. 813bucboi Says:

    and if dirk didnt like his coaching staff he shouldve fired them and hired new coaches….thats what competent coaches do….thats on him…..

    obviously he was satisfied with his staff….

    funny thing is, no one was saying, he’s stuck with a staff he didnt want in 2016….lol….

    but once the wheels fall off, the excuses pour in…….