Football Outsiders Predicts…

July 25th, 2018

Should fans start chugging Bud Light already?

It may be written, but will it be done?

The stat crowd that Joe respects,, has released its annual almanac on all things NFL which includes predictions.

No, Joe is too cheap to buy one (Joe does subscribe to many other publications and media outlets however, including SiriusXM Radio, and the Wall Street Journal). But, jet-flyin’, kiss–stealin‘, data-analyzin’, Bucs-film-studyin’, data-driven, limousine-ridin’ Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times does subscribe to the publication. And there, Bassinger reports (with a lot of other goodies) how the Football Outsiders crowd thinks the Bucs will play this year.

Better, but maybe not good enough.

Football Outsiders’ mean projection for the Bucs, calculated after simulating the season 1 million times, is … seven wins. The Saints had the highest projection in the NFC South at 9.4 wins, followed by the Falcons at 8.1 wins and the Panthers at 7.5 wins.

Football Outsiders gives the Bucs a 22.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, a 2.0 percent chance of reaching Super Bowl LIII and an 0.8 percent chancing of hoisting their second Lombardi Trophy.

No playoffs again? If that happens, that will be 11 straight years (and counting) of no postseason for the Bucs. Remember, the 14 straight seasons the Bucs missed the playoffs from 1983 to 1996 is considered one of the darkest holes in NFL history. If the Bucs miss the playoffs again this year, the team would be pushing to match that dreadful era.

Joe wonders if seven wins is enough to save jobs at One Buc Palace?

36 Responses to “Football Outsiders Predicts…”

  1. 813bucboi Says:

    the only way 7 wins is enough is if it came with a playoff appearance like the seahawks did years back….I remember they made it at 7-9 and won….

    playoffs are the key to everyone’s security… playoffs=fishing time!!!!!!


  2. Godeep66 Says:

    The real projections are conducted by the wiseguys Vegas. They have the Buccaneers at 80 to 1 odds of taking their second Super Bowl. They are tied with the Cleveland Browns. Only the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals have worse odds. There really isn’t much else to say. I project him as a 2-14 team

  3. Lunchbox Says:

    Mine is just a feeling, not based on any sound analysis, but I really feel like we have what it takes to surprise a lot of people this year, schedule be damned. It all hinges on the degree of improvement of 1) the defensive line, and by extension, the defense, and of course 2) the running game. A big part of my optimism is because of Ronald Jones. Some on here say they don’t like his upright running style. You know who else had a similar upright running style? Walter Payton. Don’t believe me? Go watch his highlights. And similar to Walter, Ronald seems to almost never go down with first impact. I believe he has the potential to be one of the top RB’s within a couple years. My guess is 9-7 or 10-6, and losing in the Wild card round of the playoffs, but saving a lot of jobs at OBP.

  4. Casey Morgan Says:

    10-6. Unlike last year, we have a kicker, we have a D line, and we have a running back.

  5. D-Rome Says:

    Seven wins is not enough. That would be a two year stretch under Irk Koetter that isn’t much better than the two years Lovie Smith was here. The thing is, the Bucs were far less talented under Lovie Smith due to the fact they were rebuilding. This isn’t a rebuild anymore.

  6. WestminsterCoBucsFan Says:

    Two key areas need to be drastically improved; scoring in the red zone and stopping 3rd down conversions on defense. I think the moves made this offseason will help both of those areas and the bucs will be eating w’s dipped in butter all the way to the playoffs. Of course this is my fantasy in which injuries don’t occur. Reality tells me that 7 wins and no playoffs is the more probable outcome. 7 wins enough? Maybe for 1 coach but probably not both.

  7. Godeep66 Says:

    Would it not be in the teams interest to tank after starting 1-5? Take a look at the schedule. The Browns “should be” the only win in the first 6. I say tank and take a QB at the number one pick and then have Fitzpatrick teach him on how to be a pro. In effect, let him sit for a year.

  8. Thisisouryear!! Says:

    This is our year. Defense wins championships and our D is going to be tough. With the line and linebackers our secondary is going to look great. We are going to figure out how to finish our drives this year. Jameis is one player. I don’t believe there will be much of a difference with or without him. 12-4 this year!!! Go Bucs!!!

  9. LargoBuc Says:

    With the season many in the national media are predicting, 7-9 would be a miracle.
    I see this team likely between 7-9 wins, with 6 as a worst case and 10 as a best case. Our secondary is suspect, but I like the additions Licht has made to the d line, to go with two really linebackers.
    I dont know what to make of the offense though. I dont know what the identity will be with Jameis, let alone the first three games with Fitz starting.

  10. Reality_43 Says:


    Nothing like throwing in the towel before the season even begins.
    They “SHOULD” win more than 1 game in the 1st 6.
    I mean come on.
    And the Browns could be the only team that kicks their A$$.

    You never know in this league.

  11. Doctor Stroud Says:

    Bud Light?! No way! More like Jai Alai IPA from Cigar City Brewing.

  12. destinjohnny Says:

    Seven wins is a stretch.
    Jason we need a bell cow running back, 3 offensive linemen and secondary help.

  13. 813bucboi Says:


    that’s the part that is comical….and we still have folks saying this team lacks major talent……everyone cant be a first and second round picks….

    well except for our starting dline, our secondary, QB, WR, TE, RB…..

    damn, we have a lot of 1st and 2nd rounders on the squad…..


  14. Pickgrin Says:

    This team is way too talented to only win 7 games.

    That’s my opinion and apparently one that is in the minority. But I see 9 or 10 wins for the Bucs this year – even with the Jameis suspension and tough schedule.

    If the Bucs don’t win at least 8 games this year – then the entire coaching staff’s jobs would rightfully be at great risk.

  15. SteveK Says:

    If the Bucs have a crap year, and decide to clean house then we need a new QB too.

    It would be a travesty to fire Koetter and keep Winston, when Jameis let his team down.

  16. Eric Says:

    We ran two Super Bowl winning coaches out of town with winning records in their last year. Dungy had them in playoffs year he was canned, Gru won the Division just one year prior.

    Now 7 is ok? Without playoffs during entire tenure?

    Wow. What happened to the stockholders?

  17. Mike Johnson Says:

    If these cinderella Bucs can somehow win 2 of there 1st 3 games? It could get interesting. They must go at least 5-3 their 1st half in order to generate fan enthusiasm. It can be done. But will it?

  18. TouchDownTampaBay Says:

    Hey GoDeep why dont you GFY you troll!

  19. TouchDownTampaBay Says:

    GoDeep = Troll

  20. fritz50 Says:

    “We ran two Super Bowl winning coaches out of town with winning records”

    LOL, Dungy was fired for ignoring the offense, 7-6 in the 4th, ending in a loss as often as a win, didn’t cut it in the end. Gruden refused to draft a franchise QB and ignored the defense. In the end, lack of balance cost them both their job. Dungy only got his Super bowl win cause he had a ready made Offense & could concentrate on the D. Gruden got his cause he could concentrate on the O. Just my opinion on that one.

  21. BucNole Says:

    Its playoffs or bust IMO
    This franchise can settle for nothing less.
    I dont want a rebuild – but I have to wonder what a creative coaching staff could do with this much talent.
    This team has some good talent to work with (on paper)
    Can this coaching staff get the most out of them???

  22. stpetebucsfan Says:

    We “tanked” to draft our current QB. I’m simply never in favor of tanking. Again the top draft picks have a 50-50 chance of making it.

    As for obtaining a QB we simply do NOT need to have a #1 pick or even a first rounder to find success.

    Brady of course is the ultimate example as a sixth round draft pick.
    Drew Brees was the top pick in the SECOND round.
    Aaron Rodgers was selected 24th

    How about our only SB winning QB? Brad Johnson was drafted by Minnesota in the NINTH round…the 227 player selected.

    I’m not gripping over Jameis…he makes it or he doesn’t…and I’m not gripping over who might replace him if he doesn’t work out…and I’m not enamored any longer about College QB’s with shiny resumes. Some work out…many do not.

    As D.R. has suggested balance is probably the best way to go. This is the most balanced Buc team I’ve seen in a long time.

  23. 813bucboi Says:

    I think harbaugh or schwarts could get us to 11-5 with this group of players but not this staff….


  24. Dapostman Says:

    Bills 100-1 to win Super Bowl > Made playoffs
    Eagles 50-1 to win SB > won SB
    Vikings 33-1 to win SB > Made playoffs
    Jaguars 100-1 to win SB > Made playoffs
    Titans 40-1 to win SB > Made playoffs
    Saints 40-1 to win SB > Made playoffs
    Rams 150-1 to win SB > Made playoffs

    2018 Bucs are now 66-1 to win SB. I bet them earlier to win NFC Championship at 40-1.

    #Get after it!

  25. Tony LA Says:

    7 wins is not enough. That is an absolute certainty.

  26. Dooshlarue Says:

    I’d rather go 0-16 if it meant not having to drink Bud Light.
    Who the F thinks that is beer?

  27. stpetebucsfan Says:


    You would hate me and my wife. We are not true beer drinkers…we hate the heavy tastes of most craft beers. We joke but you’d probably think it’s true.
    We say we like “water beer” so we drink Mich Ultra.

  28. Dooshlarue Says:

    I’ll make an exception for you two, 😉

  29. Bucsfanman Says:

    “water beer”!!! Hilarious! I’ve got to side with Doosh on that one though!

    D-Rome- You nailed it dude. 7 wins is a one-way ticket out-the door!!!

    I’m more optimistic but I hate predictions. Actually, my annual prediction EVERY year is 16-0 baby!!!! Woo-hoo!

  30. Angry Bucs Fan Says:

    The prediction folks are a joke

  31. Ptwalk Says:

    @813- Wow those are my 2 choices also if this staff is canned. I favor Harbaugh a little more than Schwartz though. But let’s give this staff another chance and hope for the best.

  32. Ptwalk Says:

    @Pickgrin, I agree

  33. feelthepewterpower Says:

    Godeep66 Says:
    July 25th, 2018 at 9:12 am
    The real projections are conducted by the wiseguys Vegas. They have the Buccaneers at 80 to 1 odds of taking their second Super Bowl. They are tied with the Cleveland Browns. Only the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals have worse odds. There really isn’t much else to say. I project him as a 2-14 team

    The Eagles were 40-1 at this time last season.

  34. gp Says:

    80-1, 66-1
    What are the odds of a perfect season?
    Better yet, what are the odds of going against Gruden and the Raiders in the super bowl?
    I like long odds, they pay better
    I’ve been waiting for that “perfect” season since 76
    No better time than the present!

  35. Trench War Says:

    What does that really say about a franchise historically? It seems the Buccaneers have done everything in their power to thwart the efforts of building a huge fanbase. Of course that’s not true ..or is it? So, one thing about us fans, we may whine (not like we don’t deserve it), we may be negative at times (again not), but we are as thick as thieves with rhino tuff skin. ..and we certainly been known to have short memories.

    It’s hard to believe the Bucs are going on a half a decade old. I think I can speak for most of us here and say, I would love to experience another Buc Super Bowl before I die.

    Just so I can make a peace sign on my way out 🙂

  36. Tampaspicer Says:

    SPBF I feel the same way about those “craft” beers. Natty man myself.