Data Claims O-Line Did Just Fine
May 3rd, 2018
Offensive line was not horrible.
Man, for the better part of the past year, dogs throughout the greater Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area howled half the night from the pain of listening to their masters scream virtually non-stop about how allegedly horrible the Bucs offensive line was.
Joe didn’t buy it then; doesn’t buy it now — though the recent health statuses of Demar Dotson and J.R. Sweezy has Joe deeply concerned.
As for the perceived horrible offensive line? Well, the data dug up and collected by FootballOutsiders.com shows that just isn’t so. Take the pass protection for example.
John Kinsley slaved over spreadsheets and tapes of games from the 2017 season and documents the Bucs had a slightly above-average offensive line when it came to pass protection.
For example, Kinsley’s data shows America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, threw from a clean pocket 70 percent of the time. That was 12th-best in the NFL.
That’s better than what Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott (Dallas!), Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady and Case Keenum had. The latter five each made the playoffs.
This is what Joe had been saying all along. Joe never suggested the Bucs were even remotely close to the 1976 Raiders, arguably the best offensive line in the history of the game. Joe thought the Bucs were average or maybe a bit better, and the line certainly was not the core reason the Bucs won but five games.
Of course, if someone’s standard for an offensive line is five pancake blocks on each and every play, then yeah, Joe can understand how someone would argue the Bucs’ front line was putrid.
May 3rd, 2018 at 5:31 am
Joe using football outsider’s data to support his point of view.
I thought that you didn’t trust football outsiders?
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unbelievable Says:
April 17th, 2018 at 11:18 am
Here we go again with misinformation claiming the broncos o line was the worst in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos o line was rated #9 last year in run blocking by football outsiders (an outfit that Joe respects and trusts).
#9 means they are top-10 in run blocking…..
JOE NEVER has written that he trusts the data and rankings from Football Outsiders. Joe has written many, many times that Joe respects their efforts and approach, and their willingness to analyze their own data with an open mind versus the PFF Tribe. But keep making things up.
unbelievable Says:
April 17th, 2018 at 3:17 pm
@St. Pete-
overall DEN o-line run blocking was ranked #9, TB ranked #16
But then if you dive a little deeper….
% of runs stuffed at or behind LOS:
DEN – #7, TB – #17
2nd level yards:
DEN – #18, TB – #31
So bottom line: they were better at run blocking than we were, while worse at pass protection. (These are all from Football Outsiders- which Joe trusts, NOT from PFF. In 2016 we graded out as the worst team at runs stuffed behind the LOS, so at least we improved on that…)
Again, ,JOE NEVER has written that he trusts the data and rankings from Football Outsiders. Joe has written several times that Joe respects their efforts and approach, and their willingness to analyze their own data with an open mind versus the PFF Tribe.–Joe
May 3rd, 2018 at 5:32 am
So you don’t trust them, but you still use their data to buttress your argument?
May 3rd, 2018 at 6:09 am
Reminds me of two quotes:
1. Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
2. Statistics are for losers.
May 3rd, 2018 at 6:54 am
The O-line was a better pass blocking unit with Sweezy but not so much at run blocking which he was known for. The run blocking seemed to improve toward
the end of the year after injuries to Sweezy and other starters. Jameis also seemed to be more comfortable in the pocket during this period..
May 3rd, 2018 at 6:57 am
So if your ‘data’ is correct Joe and we had an ‘above average’ OLine (at least in terms of pass protection), they why did the Bucs offense only scored 335 points (less 21 points from the defense scoring)? Are you gonna blame it all on Martin yet again (even though he only rushed 138 times all season)? Or is it Jameis’ fault for turnovers, inaccurate deep throws & poor decision-making at times? Or maybe Koetter for bad play-calling at times? Sorry, not buying the ‘above average’ OLine. WINNING is a TEAM effort. So is LOSING … and we were 5-11 last season. OLine was mediocre last year. That’s why Licht signed Ryan Jensen for a king’s ransom, and why he drafted Cappa. And why he’ll release Sweezy & sign at least 1 veteran before season starts.
May 3rd, 2018 at 6:58 am
Both OL & DL “should” be greatly improved this September and get even better as they settle down and become accustomed to playing with each other..
May 3rd, 2018 at 7:01 am
“pass protection” above average? Maybe! Run-blocking? Horr-A-BULL!!!
Overall? Pass-protect+run-blocking=Below average!
I’m hoping this is put to bed this year with the improvements.
May 3rd, 2018 at 7:12 am
My eyes and the teams record and jameis getting hurried and smacked around plus the running game being terrible all equal the OL is/was terrible, donovan smith is average at best as a LT, not to mention Licht passed on a franchise LT in Laremy Tunsil to get VH3, marpet was an abysmal failure at center, then the right side of the line was a turnstile….too bad we do not have robinson at Tennessee that is building a team in teh right way and not making these kooky licht moves, look at the titan line and backfield and defense……….other than that the play was great mrs lincoln
May 3rd, 2018 at 7:18 am
If the pass protection was good then why do so many JW jock huggers claim that his 15 fumbles were a result of him having to make plays under duress?
Not a hater but both can’t be true.
May 3rd, 2018 at 7:20 am
I think we will be better on the offensive line this with the addition of our new center. I also like the tackle we got in the draft.
May 3rd, 2018 at 7:49 am
Football Outsiders is an outfit Joe respects. He knows some of those guys and knows how they go about their business and they are not slaves to nor blind to stats only.
They are a far cry from the PFF tribe.
May 3rd, 2018 at 8:05 am
Joe above link takes you to deep ball project stats. Scroll down and you will see a chart for each range of yards. It pretty much shows Jameis’s strength between 16 and 24yards. as some have pointed out,only 14 attempts in the range where he had a 65.5 % efficiency compared to 51 attempt at 35 yards plus for 20 %
efficiency. Quite possible the shoulder affected this.
May 3rd, 2018 at 8:11 am
correction: 66.5 %.
Agree Joe, many of their charts are worth analyzing.
May 3rd, 2018 at 8:12 am
If the line was so good, why did the Bucs have to get the highest paid center? why will there be a potential 3 new starts out of the 5 positions!!!!!!! And if Joe is touting that the pass-protection was so good, and Drug Martin was in the line up because of his pass-protection, then Joe now knows why drug martin was in the lineup!!!!!!!!!! Why was DD69 considered to have his best year when OJ Howard was next to him??????? Why did joe want a guard in the draft and had so many free-agent guards showcased if the line was so good????????
I like when someone see the “tea-leaves” and all the “signs” yet goes with a totally opposite conclusion!!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 3rd, 2018 at 8:15 am
When did Joe ever write the offensive line was “so good?”
Wrote countless times over the months it was average to slightly above average.
But to read what some folks thought of the line, the Bucs had five shadows blocking. smh
May 3rd, 2018 at 8:27 am
I feel last year we had an average oline and we had pretty big liabilities at both guard spots which failed to generate consistent push in the run game. I dont see anything wrong with people wanting us to upgrade that unit which I think we did. Jensen will be an upgrade at center and with Marpet will be a huge upgrade at guard. Hopefully Dotson stays relatively healthy and this should be a pretty solid unit.
May 3rd, 2018 at 8:32 am
Pass-pro was OK. But Run blocking? To most fans it seemed like crap. But i guess Joe places more blame on Doug Martin than the Oline.
May 3rd, 2018 at 8:39 am
“average to slightly above average.”
Oh sure – focus on the pass protection aspect which was indeed “average” (below average actually but I won’t press that point). The major problem with the Bucs Oline in 2017 was that neither starting Guard could run block worth a damn. The stat nerds all pretty much agreed on this. Sweezy was rated as one of the worst run blocking Guards in the league and Pamphile wasn’t far behind. Evan Smith was rated higher than both our “starters” – Pamphile and Sweezy – neither of whom will be with the team in 2018 – so what does that tell you??
It tells you both our starting Guards sucked – that 2/5th of our line was terrible last year and so thus – and that it’s pretty much impossible for our line to have been any good much less “average” when 2 out of the 5 guys up front were WAY sub par.
May 3rd, 2018 at 8:57 am
The problem is they did too much pass blocking. When you do it so much you’re gona improve. Need to get back to nasty run blocking. Which I think they agree signing Jensen and drafting Cappa. Pretty sure the defense will be improved but playing keep away is always a good idea.
May 3rd, 2018 at 9:19 am
Joe, the fact that the Bucs’ run game/run blocking was absolute buttcheeks last year was the reason fans were screaming that we had a bad O-line. I don’t recall anyone saying we had a bad O-line in general as in they couldn’t do anything right.
May 3rd, 2018 at 9:23 am
the picture used for offensive line fluff pieces should at least be the best player on the line…Marpet.
May 3rd, 2018 at 9:23 am
A good case for numbers can be made to say whatever you want them to say!!! Simple As That!
May 3rd, 2018 at 9:39 am
@NJBF
You’re right, the pic should be Ali……..but Joe has a huge chub for Donovan!
He’s just so gosh darn nice……and durable!
May 3rd, 2018 at 9:46 am
I agree with joe actually…..
I think the oline was average at best…..
I think the 2 things that made them look bad were the long developing plays and sticking with martin too long…..dirk has a lousy 4vert scheme and made a horrible decision by sticking with doug far too long….
everyone can agree that when Winston returned from injury and barber took over, the offense looked some what better….but the problem was still predictable play calling and long developing plays….
sure, the oline needed a few upgrades but so did every other position except for LB…..
the talent along the oline is better but it wont do them any good if dirk continues to run that predictable long developing 4vert scheme…..
run the ball out of our 2TE sets and play action off of that as well….keep the defense guessing…..
#NOEXCUSESIN2018!!!!!…#PRESSURESONTHECOACHES!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!!
May 3rd, 2018 at 10:58 am
I don’t think Data was watching the games.
May 3rd, 2018 at 11:52 am
Stats are for Losers. Isn’t that what we were last season?
May 3rd, 2018 at 12:28 pm
What makes it even more impressive is that the Bucs O-line never had the luxury of playing a game against the Bucs D-line like Matt Ryan did. Matt Ryan having worse protection than the Bucs is pretty sickening when you factor in the fact that Matty Ice was fortunate to play two games against a team that doesn’t usually even sniff QBs let alone pressure them.
May 3rd, 2018 at 12:42 pm
And my eyes tell a different story.
May 3rd, 2018 at 8:30 pm
If our pass blocking was so great why was Jameis injured last year. And every time he fumbled he was being tackled trying to pass. And why did all of us see Jameis running for his life so much? And why if we were so good at pass blocking why was D. Smith having to hold on pass plays to stop DEs who were getting past him? We have had to upgrade three positions on the OL and will likely have to get a LT by moving up in the draft next year. I would never put my faith in any so called experts trying to sell me on the Bucs being great pass blockers when all the evidence above tells me just the opposite.
May 5th, 2018 at 2:50 pm
Oh Joe, lol. This is the exact data I was posting days ago, as Blake pointed out.
Our pass blocking was okay. Ok = average (shouldn’t we want to be better than average???)
What we’ve been screaming about is the RUN BLOCKING
It’s been way below average, near the bottom of the league for the last 2 years. That’s what we’ve been screaming about.
Do you think the Bucs would have signed the highest paid center and drafted a mauling guard/tackle if the run blocking was average or above average?
Cmon man.