Chief Geek Down On Bucs
September 5th, 2017
Anti-Bucs geekery.
These stat nerds are an absolute trip sometimes.
Take this Mike Clay character on BSPN. He recently typed a list of NFL teams he believes will let fans down. His No. 1 team on this list? The Bucs.
The Buccaneers are a popular breakout team this season, but I see a franchise whose offseason additions makes them an average team at best. There are some stars in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Brent Grimes and Gerald McCoy. But the list of liabilities is even longer and includes a poor offensive line, a shaky running back situation and voids and/or depth issues at defensive end, linebacker, defensive back, safety and kicker.
Now Joe isn’t saying all Clay typed here is bogus, just 95 percent.
So a team with a winning record that added DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard, Chris Godwin, T.J. Ward and in a roundabout way, J.R. Sweezy, got worse? Someone’s gonna have to have a helluva long sitdown with Joe to sell that pitch. Really?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The stat geeks are so immersed in hate over Donovan Smith and Sweezy they can’t see straight. Point taken.
Depth issues at linebacker? Nice research there, Mikey. Hey Mike, want to get your head out of your spreadsheets once in a while, eh?
To be fair, Clay has an absolutely correct point about running backs. Joe will have a bit more on that in a few minutes.
Naturally, Clay, formerly one of the high priests of the PFF tribe, has his No. 1 surprise team to be the Titans.
(Has anyone else noticed a pattern whereby the statgeeks seem to universally walk around with a bulge in their crotch over Marcus Mariota yet always grumble about America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston?)
September 5th, 2017 at 8:05 am
I saw that yesterday Joe. I couldnt agree more with u and less with him. Even looking at it from the point of view of the bucs not being my true love. Basura as pablo says. Go Bucs
September 5th, 2017 at 8:25 am
Mike Clay’s prediction is pretty much on a par with the spaghetti models showing where Hurricane Irma is going. Anyone’s guess is as good as anyone else’s at this point in the season.
September 5th, 2017 at 8:26 am
@darin
Speaking for Pablo
“Pablo does say basura….but Pablo has another word for this stat geek…..mierda. Pablo’s Bucs will be great this year…..Pablo has finally recovered from Aguayo’s meltdown….Pablo is good to go”
September 5th, 2017 at 8:33 am
Picking the Titans as the “breakout” team might be a good pick actually!!! I read that they have the softest schedule in all of the NFL, if not the second softest!!!!!
September 5th, 2017 at 8:35 am
It’s cool. I like Mariota but I don’t get all the love for the Titans, maybe cuz their division is in shambles and the NFC South being the best in football affects Clay’s mind. Jameis is one of three players to start their career with 4Kyd passing seasons. We are blessed and have a guy players rally around. Geezus just look at how gruden drools over him. Our linebacker depth is solid and we beefed up the slime with Baker. Zeke is suspended as of now so does Dallas have a shady running situation? Who’s even gonna be the Pats rb yet they’re favored to win again. Seattle? What about the teams who all just cut seasoned vets at kicker? Every team has a couple issues. If adding Desean and TJ Ward along with OJ, evans, and beckwith in the draft was wrong, I don’t want to be right.
September 5th, 2017 at 8:41 am
Offensive and Defensive End are real legit worries for this team. But you know what the salary cap is meant to ensure no team is perfect at every position.
Up to the coaches to hide the defencies as best as possible. At worst this is a 8 win team at best 10 or 11.
Defense needs to play well from week 1 and not just for 5 or 6 games like last season and Jameis needs to make that jump we all hope he does. Because, if he doesn’t then the team won’t reach it’s potential
September 5th, 2017 at 8:44 am
Why do people always generalize about the offensive line? Yes, we have some big questions at tackle but the interior of the line is very good and will only get better as the season progresses.
September 5th, 2017 at 8:46 am
Hah! What an idiot Clay is!
September 5th, 2017 at 8:49 am
Clay will be our biggest cheerleader come week 3.
September 5th, 2017 at 8:55 am
Just another nerd hiding in his Mom’s basement, writing about something he knows nothing about, namely sports, because the only sports he ever played was on a video game.
September 5th, 2017 at 8:56 am
Good one defense!
September 5th, 2017 at 9:19 am
Mike Clay is a joke.
September 5th, 2017 at 9:21 am
No depth at Linebacker baahahahahahahahahahahhahaha
September 5th, 2017 at 9:28 am
Funny because I fly Bucs flags on my ride every year. This is the first season I’ve had complete strangers try an tell me about what they think my team is about to be this season. Same wit co-workers attempting to stress what our record will be. What surprises me is how much knowledge of this team fans of other teams have. I always walk away smiling to myself saying “these mofos undoubtedly see us coming”.
September 5th, 2017 at 9:32 am
Mariota had better stats at the end of last year as before even after missing a game and was rated higher by the nfl then the bucs qb. Look at M.M. red zone %.. Bucs have better wideouts so maybe this year Winston is on target more .
September 5th, 2017 at 9:38 am
i swear these stat geeks love them some mariota just as much as they love to hate jameis i’m glad someone finally pointed it out. they just look at the stat sheet and never actually watch a single play from a game so it makes sense. i watched some of the titans preseason and i got to admit i wasn’t so impressed with mariota… he’s supposed to be the wildly accurate one but he was spraying balls all over the field high and low. i’m sure he will turn it around because i do believe he is a good qb just not better than mine. i do find it funny though how so many people just like to ignore jameis when talking about the young qbs in the league but if you bring up mariota or dak they talk about them like they are the next aaron rodgers and TB12
September 5th, 2017 at 9:38 am
Have you seen Jameis’ red zone stats?
September 5th, 2017 at 9:44 am
ben, I wonder if MM’s Red zone % would’ve been as high as it was if opposing teams didn’t have to honor (1) Titans’ big OLine; (2) Titans’ big RBs; and (3) MM being a threat to run. IOW, Titans’ run game (ranked 3rd in the NFL) was an even bigger threat in the Red zone than their passing game (and they scored more TDs rushing also). Meanwhile back at the ranch, Bucs’ run game didn’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of opponents. Perhaps that made defending against the pass easier for opposing defenses in the Red zone?
September 5th, 2017 at 9:47 am
At some point people are going to have to question Mariota’s ability to stay healthy. One of his strengths was his speed and ability to run the ball. That’s quickly going away as his body does not seem to be able to take the pounding.
His forte was as a spread QB not a dropback pocket passer.
Realist….please get out of here with that weak schedule stuff. 90% of the teams turn over so dramatically that there is no certain way to know which teams are as tough in the year as they “appear” in the off season.
I think it’s safe to say that NE is a really tough game on our schedule. After that…get back to me after the season and we’ll check the records of all the teams and then we’ll know who played a tough schedule and who got away easy.
For the Bucs IMHO the teeth are in our own division…and that Pats game. Our schedule couldn’t set up any better with a bye in the 11th week right before we start our playoff run with games against division rivals…first out of the chute will be the Falcons in Atlanta and then 3 of our last 4 games are at home.
Worrying about schedules is for the fearful not the confident.
September 5th, 2017 at 9:50 am
Spot on joe.
Ultimately it does not really matter good or bad what is said about the Bucs.
I am very confident in this football team
Of course they are not strong at the running back position, do not have good depth at OL or Corner and the Bucs pass rush is not that great.
However, the Bucs have a fantastic DT, great linebackers and a very strong starting secondary. Also, the Bucs have arguably the best WR and TE group in the league and a QB that I believe takes the step of becoming elite this year.
September 5th, 2017 at 9:52 am
:Jameis is one of three players to start their career with 4Kyd passing seasons.”
…………………
He is the ONLY one to ever do it.
September 5th, 2017 at 9:56 am
NOSBOS
I’m hearing the same kind of talk even way up here on Michigan’s UP.
The majority of visitors to our rocky little beach are from Wisconsin and the UP…both hotbeds of Pack fans. I find Pack fans to be very knowledgeable about the NFL. They are well aware of #3 and how much the Bucs have improved. They believe we’re going to give them a tough game.
BTW I did leave them out of our tough games…to me NE and GB are the two toughest games on our schedule.
September 5th, 2017 at 10:16 am
Mike Clay also said the Bucs would pass on OJ Howard if he was available at 19. Enough said guys a clown
September 5th, 2017 at 10:22 am
It is funny reading all these posts in different articles where people think we are going to the Superbowl sometime soon. We are at LEAST 2 or 3 years away from competing for a Superbowl appearance, if at all. You can tell allot from just watching the Preseason, like the Bucs have no depth and Jameis still makes the same mistakes he has been making the last 2 years. He throws the ball up for grabs as he is being sacked or throws into double coverage in the end zone for a pick. This team is ONLY going to go as far as Jameis can take them. The defense STILL can’t stop the run or put pressure on the QB so we are going to have to score 30 points in quite a few games this year. I am just as excited as the next person to see what the Bucs can do this year but I have to be realistic too.
When we were good when Dungy was here we would win like 3 games in the preseason because we had depth at more positions than we do right now. The King of Tulane was our backup in ’99 (as a rookie) and could come in and win by scoring late in the game. If Jameis goes down we will hurting because our backup QB’s are lucky that Tampa is willing to pay them. The Redskins had a 3rd string QB that looked better than Fitzpatrick does. Why didn’t he take the offer the Jets were wanting to give him last year? Bet he wishes he would have taken that deal now. Or, do you ALL
September 5th, 2017 at 10:52 am
Or, do you ALL think he is happy that he is playing with Jameis too. I am so tired of hearing what a great player/leader Winston is. He has yet to do anything except be average at best. His inflated stats are because he has a good OC that MOST rookie QB’s are NOT lucky enough to have. We will see if he has gotten any better this week, but the game is probably going to be in the rain and not going to be a whole lot of passing. Can’t wait until Jameis becomes the player you ALL are making him out to be, if he EVER does. I am tired of losing AND not making the Playoffs every year and it makes me want to believe in him too. Reality is, he hasn’t looked that great on HK’s with Dirk always getting on him still. Go BUCS!
September 5th, 2017 at 11:05 am
Well, he’s right about defensive end… and cornerback depth.
But that’s it. Pretty far reach in my opinion but haters gonna hate.
September 5th, 2017 at 11:19 am
SB
All good but Luck and Newton did it first in their first two years but amen brother, Jameis is the truth, just getting facts straight
September 5th, 2017 at 11:22 am
Stinky: our go said he’s the best leader he’s ever seen, Herm Edwards said similar but you would know, do you
September 5th, 2017 at 11:23 am
GM* Jason licht
September 5th, 2017 at 11:50 am
Joe, has it ever occurred to you that the RBs look bad BECAUSE of how bad some of the linemen are. You can’t have it both ways that fit your agenda.
September 5th, 2017 at 11:52 am
If you believe the offensive line was terrible, sure. Joe doesn’t subscribe to that theory, though.
Still doesn’t account for Martin having the worst yards-per-carry in the NFL.
September 5th, 2017 at 2:17 pm
@WhatTheBuc
Again with the leader chit, huh? We have got plenty of cheerleaders around One Buc and they don’t do ANYTHING to help us win. Leaders do just that, they lead by example. People follow them because they get the job done, NOT because of a pregame speech or saying you are going to score a TD on EVERY drive. Whenever he starts winning games on his own I will consider him a leader. Until then, he is just a glorified cheerleader trying to pump the team up. What has he really done to be this leader you ALL make him out to be? Joe Dirt is a leader too but will not end up making the team (I think) because he is kinda slow. Just because you are a leader vocally doesn’t mean you are a WINNER. There are plenty of average QB’s in the league, which is exactly what Jameis is right now. Still can’t wait to see him play this year though. The most wins he is going to get us this year is about 9 or 10, if we are lucky. This team just isn’t that good yet, too many wasted draft picks the last few years. There is NO excuse this year though, DJax should make him look better (or NOT).
September 5th, 2017 at 2:27 pm
Fun fact: Who has played the easiest schedule in the NFL over the last two seasons? That’s right, it’s Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. The stat geeks are the ones that were saying sure, Blake Bortles put up his stats in garbage time in 2015, but he’s really really good and going to have a big breakout season last year. LOL!
Nothing against Mariota, I think he will have a nice long career, like Jeff Garcia did – and I think that’s the model for Mariota in fact, just without the Playboy cover wife (yeah you show him Jeff, that will PROVE that what TO said about you is nonsense!). But Mariota has put up good numbers really only when he’s played the worst defenses in the league, when he’s played good defenses he’s put up below average numbers. On the plus side that means he’s taking advantage of opportunities when it’s given to him, which is good. But when he can’t do it against good defenses it makes you wonder why. With that said Mariota is only a few months older than Winston and they’re both very young guys – so both have a long way to go to prove anything longterm. Mariota’s biggest concerns are obviously staying on the field – but unlike Winston, Mariota has a strong offensive line and with as much as I like the Bucs running backs, Mariota with Murray and Henry has a pretty awesome 1-2 punch. BUT Winston clearly has the better receivers so it’s not even close – and while Winston had an awful o-line last year he was the best QB under pressure that ESPN has ever recorded with their QBR number, for whatever that’s worth.
September 5th, 2017 at 2:33 pm
Joe – The offensive line last year was terrible, pretty much every stat site anywhere has them ranked between 30th and 32nd, and just watching them play showed that. On an individual level Smith, at LT, I thought was solid and Marpet is playing a near pro-bowl level, but outside of those two spots it was very hit or miss.
If you go back and watch the games last year Martin’s YPC are very easy to explain. This was Dirk’s play calling from like week 3 until week 17 for every series for the first three quarters of the game…
1st Down… Run up the middle….
That’s it.
Run up the middle.
The other team puts 9 men in the box, no difference, run up the middle. I think it was football outsiders that showed that Martin got hit by defenders sooner than any player in football last year, meaning to even get a 1 yard gain he had to break like 2 tackles. There’s only ever been one player I’ve ever seen that can do anything with that, and it was Barry Sanders, and with as much as I like Martin (in odd numbered years) he’s no Barry Sanders. Dirk failed the team last year, he didn’t coach like that in 2015, he wasn’t ultra predictable, but last year he was and he did the same thing over and over and over again.
The o-line and the terrible play calling is what doomed Doug last year, he rarely had a chance to do anything because even if he did get past the first guy he was getting hit by 5 more within a second.
September 5th, 2017 at 2:43 pm
Yeah, we’ll see how you change your tune Mike Clay or whatever your name is.
September 5th, 2017 at 2:53 pm
Stinky
I didn’t know you knew Jameis personally and honestly that’s pretty cool. According to you a leader just has to win games apparently. I thought it was much more than that butbyea NFL gm’s, coaches and players must all be wrong about Jaboo. You’re a troll bud. We went from 2-14 to 6-10 and then 9-7 with Jameis and originally the worst team in the league. But keep complaining bc honestly good news doesn’t sell now adays;)
September 5th, 2017 at 4:10 pm
Joe actually talks to people who work in the NFL for a living and values their opinions rather than rely on folks who never, ever worked in the NFL with their civilian ranks and grades.
If the PFF tribe and their ilk really, really, really knew what they were writing, don’t you think they’d be working for an NFL team making more cash with better bennies?
September 5th, 2017 at 4:35 pm
Joe I agree on PFF – but I’m talking about a lot more than PFF here, also there is the eye test. While PFF hates Smith – I think he’s easily the 2nd best player on that line, its the players who aren’t named Smith and Marpet that are the concern. They did play extremely well in 2015, but in 2016 they played extremely poorly. ESPN has that one stat, that anyone can get right and isn’t subjective, and it’s yards before contact on a running play by a defensive opponent and the Bucs were dead last in the NFL. That is not a subject stat for the most part – that stat tells you either the line wasn’t doing it’s job or Dirk was running it up the gut into a bunch of run blitzes.
Dirk did a great job in 2015 mixing it up, he did not do so last year. There is a reason there was talk about Dirk giving up play calling duty (which I was against btw). By just calling plays better, mixing it up more, the o-line can probably be a upper 20s ranked offensive line – which would be good enough I think.
September 5th, 2017 at 11:30 pm
First off Clay fails to mention current stars Jameis Winston, Kwon Alexander, Noah Spence, Robert Ayers, Vernon Hargreaves, Jacquies Smith, Doug Martin, OJ Howard, Cameron Brate and TJ Ward. The area’s I see issues with Depth at DE, RB and CB.