Are Red Zone Stats Overrated?

August 28th, 2017

Strong red zone stats.

Yes, the Bucs stunk in the red zone Saturday and had to settle for field goals, three of them, in fact, for the only points of the night.

And yes, America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, threw a pick deep in Browns real estate. And yes, the misplaced Calgary Stampeder, Donteea Dye, sure seemed as if he was robbed of a touchdown in a review that went against the Bucs.

Joe started hunting on the internet and wonders if red zone stats may be a bit overrated?

Consider the Bucs were 20th in the NFL in scoring touchdowns once in the red zone. Playing home games, the Bucs ranked No. 9 in the NFL in red zone touchdowns… and No. 28 in road games.

As the voice of reason, Phil Mushnick of the New York Post, pointed out Sunday, the top three teams in the NFL in scoring touchdowns in the red zone in 2016, Tennessee, San Francisco and New Orleans, were a combined 18-30.

The Bucs, despite finishing 20th in touchdowns scored in the red zone, had their first winning season in six years, narrowly missing the playoffs.

Besides, it isn’t like America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, is horrible in the red zone. In his two seasons in the NFL, Jameis has 34 touchdowns from inside the opponents’ 20 with one pick (the link is only to his 2016 red zone stats, but the 2015 red zone stats are a simple click away).

That’s a pretty damned good ratio. In fact, that’s almost a red zone touchdown per game.

Jameis has fewer red zone picks the past two seasons than the following quarterbacks: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, Derek Carr and Sam Bradford, to name a handful.

So, the way Joe looks at it, Jameis will be just fine in the red zone.

20 Responses to “Are Red Zone Stats Overrated?”

  1. tmaxcon Says:

    counting on field goals to be successful in the playoffs (one in done is not success) is a losing proposition similar to counting on martin at rb. just is not a winning formula.

  2. Jim Says:

    Is scoring touchdowns over-rated too? Just wondering…

  3. Lamarcus Says:

    We can spin a negative into a positive all we want but we still have to score down there more times than not.

    We don’t even have a reliable kicker for that either.

  4. JJBucFan Says:

    Preseason redzone stats are overrated for sure. We have been extremely vanilla in the redzone and really outside the redzone as well. If we are not watering this ish down, we are in big trouble with Koetter’s playcalling but I am not worried about it until we open with the Dolphins. Still can’t understand why he doesn’t roll Jameis more, especially inside the 10. Also, I think we are hiding OJ at this point.

  5. Gt40bear Says:

    Touchdowns…all about TOUCHDOWNS!

  6. Dusthty Rhothdes Says:

    You play to win the game and 6 is a lot better than 3 and there is too much firepower to be kicking lovie style, and koetter it seems is a guy who wants the red zone stats up and firing of the cannons to mean TDs are going to follow, i mean when danerys has the dragons near the soldiers you want the fire to follow not a couple of screeches

  7. stpetebucsfan Says:

    There are 80 more yards on the field besides the red zone to score TD’s. Lacking a deep threat in the past…and having a star running back constantly hauled down from behind unable to take it to the house does put a premium on red zone TD’s.

    But…if Sims is healthy…he may dance his way to a TD or two longer than 20 yards…and do we suspect that DJAX and OJ and now Godwin may also score TD’s from beyond the 20.

    Red zone scoring CAN be a deceptive stat. The bottom line is scoring TD’s…do we really care if we score them from the other 80 yards of the field or are the TD’s inside the 20 the only ones that show up on the scoreboard.

    IF…we are as explosive as we suspect…red zone opportunities should be fewer than in past years.

  8. Love and Warrick Dunn Says:

    Once we get the starting receivers back and implement an actual regular season gameplan, if we struggle in the redzone, then there’s time for concern.

    As of now, it’s preseason, and I saw Jameis moving the ball pretty well. Not saying there aren’t any issues, but, I also don’t see the sky falling.

    If we could finally see the Charles Sims that Koetter raves about, that would be comforting.

    The good news is that IF we do continue with red zone struggles, at least we can walk away from 3 points, not zero.

  9. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Maybe it’s just me but it seems we always go to the run on the early downs inside the 20….and usually put ourselves in a 3rd down must convert situation….
    I’d like to see more short passing inside the red zone….flip it to a back/receiver then let them run.

  10. Pawel Says:

    At least we make it to the Red zone unlike years ago. 😂

  11. Defense Rules Says:

    Not sure I understand the point Joe. A TD beats a FG; a FG beats turning the ball over (via downs or turnover). Suspect that we’ll have a pretty good year if the Bucs score a TD every time they get into the Red Zone & that Coach Koetter will be happy. Anything less than that & he’ll be less happy. Matter-of-fact, he seems to get downright grumpy when we come away with zilch, zero, nada. Hmmm, so do a lot of fans & media.

  12. tnew Says:

    Wait what? I thought Jameis was so reckless and boneheaded in the red zone and the most important thing for him to do was to take less chances with the football in the red zone.

    This is the thing people. Everything is risk vs reward and game circumstance. The greatest throw picks in the red zone, but they also make plays.

    Last year the biggest issue offensively was the lack of big plays. The only big play guys on the roster to start the year was Vjax and ASJ. This year the Bucs have replaced them with DJax and OJ80. We haven’t taken the head cover off the driver yet so to speak. The Browns were begging for the Bucs to take a big shot. That double move OJ80 has shown in training camp would’ve been 6, but why waste it there? I have rewatched the Browns game twice. Our game plan was something you might find in a college pre draft game. It was set up to evaluate, not to win.

  13. cmurda Says:

    The biggest thing I took away from that preseason game was that Folk nailed all his FG chances, which is a breath of fresh air. The next thing I learned from the game was that in his shortened time on the field Riley B. did not impress with his coverage skills. His tackling skills and ability to pursue the ball is very solid. I was clamoring for him to make the 53 but I’m not so sure unless I see the ability to drop back in coverage. Our defense requires for LB’s to be adept in coverage. That’s about the only exciting storyline I can come up with for this last preseason game.

  14. cmurda Says:

    Exactly tnew, we were purposely vanilla on offense which is exactly what we should do. Dirk even said it before the game that this would be about evaluating instead of drawing up plays that take advantage of mismatches. The only QB I would be calling out is Fitz. This dude is slow and has lost any semblance of skills he ever had. I see no reason we should keep him as the number 2 for the sake of a veteran presence. Jameis and this team don’t need a veteran presence, they need somebody that can hold the fort down if JW goes down.

  15. Mike Johnson Says:

    Nope. Not overrated. And if Jameis wants to be amongst the elite in this league? His red zone touchdowns have got to get..much much better.

  16. Joe Says:

    His red zone touchdowns have got to get..much much better.

    “Much, much better?”

    34 touchdowns to one pick is awfully damn good. Not sure how any quarterback could get “much, much better” than that.

  17. 813bucboi Says:

    try teaching that spin move to big will joe….I aint buying it…..

    its not his red zone ability, its his overall decision making….Winston has to improve his decision making….point blank period….GO BUCS!!!!

  18. stpetebucsfan Says:


    You mean you’re actually allowed to use facts here? LMAO

  19. Joe Says:


    Joe would suggest the Bucs would be much better in the red zone if Jim Brown and Barry Sanders Doug Martin and Jacquizz Rodgers could be quasi-reliable runners in the red zone.

    Kind of hard for Joe to go after a quarterback who has a 34/1 touchdown/interception ratio in the red zone.

  20. JimmyJack Says:

    John Madden knows more about football then all of us combined and he has said that the most important thing about redzone opportunities is coming away with points. He’s right IMO.

    You should be scoring points every single time, no excuses. If you don’t that means somebody effed up. That’s the time to point fingers.

    You need playmakers to score you redzones TDs. So when you give Mike Evans two jump balls against the Jags he has to score on one of them. And Jamie’s needs to quit actin a fool too cause he takes too many points off the board. Our goal line rush attack is also pathetic.