About Deep Ball Accuracy

July 25th, 2017

Eye-opening statistic.

What is this nonsense the haters always pull out that America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, is so inaccurate on deep balls?

That’s all Joe hears about, it seems. People whining and kvetching as if Jameis himself can’t hit the broadside of a barn. You’d think Jameis is the second coming of Wrongo Starr the way they claim he is so terrible on deep balls.

Well, now. Leave it to of all people, the PFF tribe, to throw that concept in the trash bin. Only one quarterback in the NFL had more touchdowns off deep balls than Jameis last year, (again, per the PFF Tribe) and that was Ben Roethlisberger.

So it is hard for Joe to wrap his head around a concept that Jameis is so awfully inaccurate deep when only one quarterback had more TD passes off deep balls.

43 Responses to “About Deep Ball Accuracy”

  1. Buc50 Says:

    I think the deep ball issue has more to do with all the 50/50 balls he has to throw because his receivers can’t get open. He does overthrow receivers but I think that all changes this year. No more excuses!!!

  2. mike10 Says:

    We lost two games last year because of overthrowing Evans. And every time Jameis’ offseason development comes up on your Podcast, Ira reiterates such. The argument now is that he can’t overthrow Jackson, w/ his speed… So I’d rather hear the % of deep balls connected on, than thrown.

    We’ll see if he improves it.

  3. James Walker Says:

    I hate it when talking heads speak as if they are Bucs experts, when in reality the only Bucs game they have seen is MAYBE the 2016 Dallas game.

  4. jwash Says:

    Lol smh you’re literally the worst at cherry picking stats to fit your agenda. How about looking at his completion percentage through his career. Or watching games where over throws wide open receivers down the field.

    It’s clearly an area he needs to improve on. He’s said it, the coaches have said. All of that said, there’s nothing at all wrong with a 3rd year QB having areas he needs to improve and I wouldn’t trade hi n for anyone

  5. dceswild Says:

    since when does the amount of TD passes equate to being a good deep ball passer. wouldn’t you have to take into account the amount of times thrown deep, and the accuracy with which those attempts stuck. It could be the receivers and hopefully it will improve this year, but if he is more accurate, then he is by far #1 in the league last year.

  6. Dewey Selmon Says:

    I’ll trust my eyes. He needs to improve, but dud is only entering his 3rd year. Better receivers will make his long ball % go up.

  7. tmaxcon Says:

    The deep ball issues and the need to throw so many 50/50 balls was required to compensate for the lack of talent after Evans. Jameis has only had ONE NFL level WR to throw to. Hump is not a weapon. Nice story but not a weapon. Jameis now has 3 legit nfl targets at wr with Evans, djax and Godwin. Jameis is the least of bucs worries. The sore knees, mentally weak mouth piece and attention hound cancer93 is what will bring team down…

  8. Defense Rules Says:

    tmaxcon, it’s humorous that you make excuses for Jameis because of the ‘lack of talent after Evans’ and yet you keep hounding GMC without ever mentioning the talent level around him over the years. Enough of the finger-pointing. Jameis doesn’t need your excuses … he’s still developing & maturing as an NFL QB. And GMC doesn’t need your finger-pointing. You’ve got some interesting perspectives, but please, focus on T-E-A-M.

  9. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    You can throw the most deep ball touchdowns and still be inaccurate….just throw more balls…

  10. DBS Says:

    tmaxipad using excuses for Jameis he would not allow for Glennon. Sure you don’t want to throw the O- line and running backs in? And NO! Bad defense is not allowed either. Give it up. It’s ALL on the QB with YOU!! And the only thing that matters is his record and W’s. Nice try!!

  11. SB Says:

    All you cats can nitpick in b**** all you want to. Just get ready to watch the youngest quarterback to ever throw for 5000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Go Bucs!!

  12. Destinjohnny Says:

    I think we can all
    Agree that 3 can be extremely accurate at times.
    But he is inconsistent with his accuracy especially at the beginning of games.

  13. ben Says:

    Joe…is he an accurate qb or NOT so much ? he needs to improve and his year should be -a great step up for him.

  14. Pickgrin Says:

    “5000 yards and 30 touchdowns”

    Sounds about right SB. I’m thinking perhaps a few less yards and a few more TDs. 4700 yds – 33 TDs (+4 rushing TDS) – 13 Ints

  15. D-Rome Says:

    So it is hard for Joe to wrap his head around a concept that Jameis is so awfully inaccurate deep when only one quarterback had more TD passes off deep balls.

    What is Jameis’ accuracy on 20+ yard passes? Answer that question and ignore touchdown numbers.

  16. The Buc Realist Says:

    We will see better “accuracy” this year!!! Combination of injuries, players off the street and one true Wr. led up to this!!! Too easy for other teams to pressure JW3 so he has to avoid then throw to a WR that is double covered!!!!! It was amazing that they could sometime “Manufactured” some offense at all last year!!!!!!!

    Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  17. D-Rome Says:

    By the way, I found out for you. Jameis Winston was ranked 28th out of all starting QB’s with a 32.8% accuracy on passes 20 yards or longer. Not only that, he threw the most passes 20+ yards or longer than any other QB in 2016.

  18. tmaxcon Says:


    Glennon will be available by week 6 maybe Licht will bring him back for you. Clearly Chicago has no long term plan for the bum. …. Glennon is a joke and not even in the same class as McCown who he could not beat out. Comparing glennon to Jameis is like comparing a race horse with a three legged jackass.

    Defense rules

    Jameis does not share gmc enthusiasm for losing thus he gets the benefit of doubt. Every year about this time gmc does the same BS swear it his year…

  19. DBS Says:

    Best you have got maxie? See your the one making excuses. Whats good for the goose is good for the gander. But you like to change the rules You set. No comparing them.

  20. Bucsfanman Says:

    Sensitive! Wow! Jameis said it himself, he needs to improve. Anyone that watched games with their eyes can tell you it was an issue.

  21. stpetebucsfan Says:

    Man…just reading between the lines I sense some residual #3 hate.

    I know it’s human nature to be a bit contrarian at times…and I concede that our love for #3 is frequently over the top….but so is the endless criticism of his deep balls.

    IMHO his deep balls were no more a problem that 20 yarders or intermediate passes.

    I watched all the games and I saw a TEAM that struggled offensively at times.
    Not having an NFL caliber RT really really hurt our offensive line. I love Hawley’s competitive fire but he began with marginal talent and when his wheels failed him he became a liability at center.

    Our “star” running back totally collapsed. Humphries and Brate are very nice stories and they have a “role”…but getting open deep is not their forte.

    What I saw that DID disturb me at times is #3’s never giving up on plays that were clearly dead…then again…he also took dead plays and breathed life into them.

    Bottom line this is not a skill set problem IMO. #3 has a freaking gun…he can throw it deep…when he’s not jacked up like he just drank three cases of Red Bull laced with speed. When #3 plays within himself and the game he’s excellent. When he gets overexcited he certainly can miss deep throws..medium throws..short throws…it’s NOT a throwing issue…it’s an overall team problem to fix…INCLUDING #3 settling down.

    He literally growing up in front of our eyes. His skill set is excellent…his will to win is off the charts…I’m an old dude and I don’t remember any QB with a greater will to win…some like Favre come to mind but he was no more fiery or competitive than #3.


  22. mike10 Says:

    D Rome giving the stat I was looking for. Good info.

    I look for that deep ball to improve with:
    a. better receivers
    b. a better Offensive Line
    c. another year under Jameis’ belt

  23. Morahdin Says:

    Joe, you must be a great fisherman the way you bait the hooks!

  24. Buc50 Says:

    stpete…lots of “not so secret” Mariota fans still hanging around. I wish they would go ahead and join the Titans Boards. Those guys are still running their mouths about OJ Howard and Winston and how they are glad that they drafted neither of them.

  25. 813bucboi Says:

    Jameis Winston was ranked 28th out of all starting QB’s with a 32.8% accuracy on passes 20 yards or longer. Not only that, he threw the most passes 20+ yards or longer than any other QB in 2016.

    @drome…great stat….that’s exactly what I was looking for….not the TD’s but completion %……he still has work to do….GO BUCS!!!!

  26. Stud Says:

    His completion percentage on throw 20 yards and longer is what has fans concerned Joe. It’s easy to cherry pick stats that support your opinion but let’s not ignore the facts that he has a lot of work to do and is not accurate on throws 20 yards and longer.

  27. NFLNut Says:

    JW had a HIGHER COMPLETION PERCENTAGE on deep balls than AARON RODGERS … I pointed this out on this site like 3 weeks ago … people bashing JW are completely ignorant.

    Tampa has a future HOF’er on their hands and one that is a true “team guy” so my guess is they will get to enjoy him playing for their Bucs for the next 15+ years …. ENJOY IT … nearly all other NFL team fans can only dream about having an HOF’er for his entire career!

  28. stpetebucsfan Says:

    NFL Nut

    Well said!!!

  29. Stud Says:

    @NFLNut-That may be but there were still 27 other NFL QB’s better at completing passes 20 yards or longer in 2016 than Winston.

    I’m never one for attacking strangers intelligence on the internet but being ranked 28th when you attempt the most passes at 20 yards and over is not good. AT. ALL.

  30. Alaskan abdominal snowman Says:

    I’ve seen many elite qbs overthrow deep balls, its part of the game. So to say Winston needs to improve his deep ball is no knock on him as almost every QB can improve in that area.

    Winston first needs protection as he was one of the most pressured qbs in the league last season and took a lot of hits. He gets pressure on about a third of his snaps and what’s not talked about much is his improved pocket awareness and amazing ability to avoid the sack. It’s hard to deliver an accurate pass much less a deep pass when you’re peeling giant d lineman off of you and have more coming.

  31. Alaskan abdominal snowman Says:

    If he can get a little more time I would expect improvement in accuracy no doubt. A respect of our receivers and running game will go a long way in giving him more time to throw. Throw in OJs ability to block and get deep and I see this as being a true opportunity for Winston to make a 3rd year leap and enter the elite QB group.

  32. Nole on Sat- Bucc on Sun Says:

    Strong defense,Solid run game,relibale special teams and short to intermediate passes keys to winning superbowls. – Chris Carter.

  33. Nole on Sat- Bucc on Sun Says:

    Them folks NE understand this better than everyone in the entire league.

  34. Nole on Sat- Bucc on Sun Says:

    Randy Moss was arguably the best “field strecther” the game has ever seen. He’s ringless. Jerry mastered the slant,his hand quite heavy.

  35. Stud Says:

    @Nole-Jerry also played on stacked 49er teams and won 4 of their 5 titles before the salary cap was in place.

    If Super Bowl winners are good at short to intermediate throws Jameis might need to readjust his game a bit as he attempted the most passes in the league that went 20 yards and longer…

  36. Nole on Sat- Bucc on Sun Says:

    I can agree wit you on that one.

  37. stpetebucsfan Says:

    Bottom line….no guts no glory…sometimes you get the bear sometimes…

    Just how much do we want to inhibit one of the most exciting dynamic QB’s in the game? I think DK gets that question big time which is why he is slowly bringing #3 into the fold.

    This is why I LOVE DK. He’s working with an incredibly motivated dynamic playmaking QB…those kind of QB’s toss ints and sometimes don’t give up on a dead play killing our field position. But again it’s thin line..tough balancing act trying to bring a virtuoso into the fold without killing that which makes him great to begin with. I think DK is doing a masterful job of this.

    I do not know…Joe would know…how much Bajakian figures into this development.

  38. unbelievable Says:

    # of touchdowns on long passes =/= accuracy on long passes

    How many attempts did he have and where does that rank?

  39. JimmyJack Says:

    Just think some fans stare at stats and fail to remember the context.

    Jamie’s Winston can often be seen on third and long just throwing a basic hail mary to end the drive. He does this more often then any QB I can recall. These plays rarely(ever?) work but I like them because they are low risk. Worst case is an INT which works just like a punt.

    Anybody worrying about deep balls from last year is reaching. We didn’t have any deep threats after Evans. I don’t care who was throwing deep balls last year. Nobody’s getting much more production then what Winston did with our scrub receivers.

  40. JimmyJack Says:

    And let’s just realize that some of those incomplete deep balls you cry about were good plays for us. Evans gets PI called on him within the same stats you guys b!tch about.

    Reminds me of baseball fans whining about batting average when runners are on base meanwhile there were three sac fly’s in the game scoring 3 runs.

    Results override stats. As Joe said Winston got the TDs and he also got 9 wins. I don’t care if he misses 4 deep balls in a game. Just complete the last one from the 2 minute set and win the game.

  41. Buccfan37 Says:

    tmax…you meant a three legged giraffe.

  42. BuccaneEric75 Says:

    No reason to bash Joe on his Terrible take. He uses the TD argument to turn Brate into a top 5 TE. There’s no reason to think he wouldn’t do it for Winston too. If Winston was 5 of 50 on deep balls with 5 TDs and Brady was 4 of o4 with 4 TDs, Joe would say Winston is more accurate than Brady. I love Winston, but he even told Evans that “I don’t throw deep balls good”. Quote from the horses mouth. Still love ya Joe!
    Why you and others love to make stuff up always amazes Joe. –Joe

  43. BuccaneEric75 Says:

    Joe, not trying to make things up. The first part of my comment is just my opinion of how you use TD stats to pump up players. The second part is a Jameis quote to Evans after a deep ball to him in the Chiefs game. Definitely not made up. This is why I love JBF. The feedback we get and the opinions of the Joes. It’s not like the local media that doesn’t care if the team wins or not!