Data Report: 69.3% Shot At The Playoffs

December 14th, 2016
Nerds reveal data

Nerds reveal data

Kudos to iconic Falcons beat writer D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal Constitution.

The man uncovers every rock while covering his team. And Ledbetter was such a cool dude after Joe outed him for ripping Josh Freeman years ago, a remark hidden in the background of a conference call.

The man is a true professional.

So it’s no surprise that Ledbetter shared all kinds of calculations for the NFC playoff contenders. His Falcons have a 76.2 percent shot at making the playoffs, aka “playoff certainty,” and the Bucs (8-5) are at 69.3 percent. You can read it all here.

Joe enjoys mathematical calculations like this that are rooted in real math, not the phony algorithms and acronyms spewed by the Pro Football Focus tribe, the “fake news” arm of NFL media.

The Redskins (7-5-1) were assigned a 38.6 percent shot at postseason glory.

Of course, all these numbers will radically change if the Bucs lose in Dallas and the Redskins beat Carolina on Monday Night Football.

17 Responses to “Data Report: 69.3% Shot At The Playoffs”

  1. Ray Rice Says:


  2. Miko Says:

    with Bucs winning 2 of 3, still need Wahington loss and green bay loss…win out is only certain solution…Go Bears! they play them both next 2 weeks..

  3. cdizzle Says:

    Will they dramatically change? Shouldn’t a loss this weekend be baked into that percentage considering the 7 point dog status of our Bucs? I get it will flop the spots if the skins win but have to think this calculation expects the bucs to lose.

    Also totally agree with you on Ledbetter, nice of you to offer him the kudos.

  4. Bucsfanman Says:

    Just beat the team in front of you Bucs! Don’t look ahead. The only way to control your own destiny is to beat the team in front of you Sunday.
    BTW I hate statistical analysis!!!!!

  5. flmike Says:

    According to our analytics guys at CBS as of today the Bucs have a 52% chance of making the playoffs which jump drastically to 86% if they beat Dallas on Sunday, remember with any analytically evaluation you have the Monte Carlo effect, which is each time you run a a simulation you are going to have a variance of 1-2 percent. So actual chance can be anywhere from 50-54 percent as of today.

  6. tmaxcon Says:



  7. pick6 Says:

    i didn’t put any stock in that stat when it had the bucs at about 25% to make the playoffs, i don’t see why i should put stock in it now that i like what it says. if the bucs continue to prepare and play like a playoff team, they have a 100% chance of making the postseason. if they don’t, they’ve earned their spot on the couch in january watching better teams play.

  8. TouchDownTampaBay Says:

    One team that I am particularly worried about is Green Bay. If they win out and the Bucs go 2-1 who wins the tie breaker. I think Washington isn’t as good as their record and probably win out. However, Green Bay may be able to get to 10-6 so the tie breaker could be key.

  9. briandorry55 Says:

    Your hate for PFF is pretty annoying.

  10. rayjay1122 Says:

    I give the Bucs a 100% chance at playing a playoff game……this Sunday night is a playoff game. I know this is tongue in cheek but if the Bucs make it to the playoffs and win their first playoff game, I believe the divisional round would be Tampa VS Dallas at Dallas. So this is basically a playoff game.

  11. Bucsfanman Says:

    I give myself a 100% chance of hating any further numerical analysis regarding chances at the playoffs!!!!

  12. rayjay1122 Says:

    If Green Bay wins out and The Bucs go 2-1 over the next 3 weeks, both teams would finish the regular season at 10-6. We would also be tied in conference records at 8-4. The tie breakers for non division teams are as follows. Head to head is N/A for this scenario. The only common games were Falcons, Seahawks and Bears. I do not know if playing one common team twice counts toward the minimum of 4. If so, there is no way to know who would win the tie breaker until after the season. The Packers have to finish the season at Detroit which could be a loss. If we lose one game, we have to hope the Packers lose one as well.

    Head-to-head, if applicable.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
    Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
    Strength of victory.
    Strength of schedule.
    Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    Best net points in conference games.
    Best net points in all games.
    Best net touchdowns in all games.
    Coin toss

  13. rayjay1122 Says:

    I missed a common opponent in my list above. We both will have played Dallas as well.

  14. Jared DePiro Says:

    Just win baby win

  15. TouchDownTampaBay Says:

    Thanks RayJay. It would be nice to win out but that would mean an 8 game winning streak for the Bucs and that just seems unlikely. Green Bay plays MN in two weeks so one of those two teams will most likely be eliminated at that point. Another loss by the winner of that game and a Washington loss would ensure the Bucs a playoff spot if they can go 2-1 down the stretch. Man is this fun to discuss rather than who the Bucs should draft next year. I will be doing a lot of score board watching prior to our huge match up Sunday night.

  16. macabee Says:

    Beat the odds Bucs! We can do it! Go Bucs!

  17. clint Says:

    theyre not going to make it.