Kicker Math

September 27th, 2016
Fans still bitter.

Fans still bitter.

When Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht rolled the dice and made one of the boldest moves of the NFL Draft since the Dixie Chicks traded up for Julio Jones, by drafting kicker Roberto Aguayo in the second round — trading up no less — legions of Bucs fans melted down.

Joe remembers that night getting a text from a guy who played in the trenches in the SEC while in college asking Joe, “How many beers did Jason Licht have tonight?”

Selecting Roberto Aguayo was not a popular pick then, is not a popular pick now and unless the Bucs win a Super Bowl with him on the roster, likely will never win over Bucs fans.

Sunday night didn’t help when Aguayo botched a makeable field goal attempt and an extra point.


Data-driven Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times, who was not smitten with Licht drafting Aguayo the moment it happened, claimed Sunday was just the type of game Aguayo was drafted for.

When the Bucs chose Aguayo, they hoped he would be as automatic as he was at Florida State, where he made all 46 of his field goal tries inside 40 yards and all 198 of his extra points. Kicks weren’t supposed to be adventures; they were supposed to be nonevents, opportunities to refill your drink or grab a grilled cheese burger.

So far, however, when Aguayo walks onto the field, you don’t know what’s going to happen. Who knew that when the Bucs started touting “the new Raymond James Stadium experience” they weren’t just talking about the new video boards?

As Aguayo prepared to pad the Bucs’ 20-17 lead in late in the third quarter, fans in the north end zone stood in anticipation of his 41-yard field goal attempt. When he hooked it to the left, some collapsed in their seats. Others shook their heads with “same old Bucs” resignation. And you thought the grilled cheese burgers were bad for your heart.

Joe can’t disagree with anything Bassinger writes about Aguayo. How could you? But here is a quibble Joe has with those who continue to slam their empty mugs of beer on the bar in anger over Aguayo.

Yes, if Aguayo makes his kicks, the Bucs don’t need seven points on the final drive. But if one is so convinced Aguayo stinks out loud, isn’t that a leap of faith Aguayo would have made a field goal and/or extra points in the fourth quarter?

If he botched the earlier kicks, tjen what makes anyone think he would have made those clutch kicks later when a touchdown would not have been needed with the game on the line?

Something else to ponder: Sure, the Bucs, in a rebuild mode, likely could have used another defender drafted in the second round who may have helped win a game Sunday. Yet the Bucs did draft a defender in the second round last spring. His name is Noah Spence.

With all the injuries to the defensive ends, Joe is beginning to wonder why Spence is not logging more time. Per, Spence was only on the field for 12 plays Sunday.

60 Responses to “Kicker Math”

  1. Hawaiian Buc Says:

    Don’t worry Joe. In about 3 or 4 more games, all these fans will be able to tell you exactly which defensive players we should have drafted. Of course, as the weeks and years go by, they’ll be able to tell you even more guys. We’ve got some excellent draft experts on this board, but they are only experts AFTER the draft. Minor detail.

  2. Mike Johnson Says:

    If Roberto cannot run with the Big dogs them he should stay down and sit on on the porch. I don’t feel the least bit of sympathy for him. This is the Big Boy league. He has one GD job…Kick field goals. He was ham near perfect in college. He gets to the NFL and chokes? Hell, send him to a shrink to get some..panic attack meds. Anything. But he’s gotta step up. If not, I say Put one of those little burger king hats on him and let’em take your order at the drive thru!! NEXT…

  3. Mojiska Says:

    We left 6 points on the field because of aguayo. We had to go for 2 twice to make up for losing the Pat. And the missed 41 yarder. It doesn’t matter what fans think of whether or not he would have made future kicks, the big issue is that a 2nd round kicker should be automatic inside 45 yards. He isnt. Bad pick no matter how you try to justify it or spin it at this point. Maybe he gets rid of the yips and becomes a top 5 kicker for the next 10 years. But as it stands right now we could have used that pick on anybody and it would have been better.

  4. Tampa Tony Says:

    It hurts even more when you see other teams have kickers who were undrafted who are more accurate than Roberto. My whole row on Sunday covered our eyes every time he kicked.

    Why can nearly every other team find undrafted or late round accurate kickers but the Bucs can’t?

  5. DanTheBucsFan(Atlanta) Says:

    Smitty still working his way down the list of players to evaluate.
    “S”pence is much farther down the alphabet than “A”guayo and “H”argreaves

    Don’t worry, he’s going on game 4 this week and after that, everything will be perfect.

  6. Mike Johnson Says:

    He’s got one job. He doesn’t have to get in the grass/mud and get dirty. He does not even have to..hit anybody. He doesn’t even have to block. JUST KICK. And kick accurately. He’s done it a thousand times with accuracy. Now he needs somebody to hold his hand? Screw Roberto. Either start doing your job or serve me a GD Burger!!!!!!!!!

  7. celly Says:

    I understand fan frustration, but the fact that he HAS been accurate throughout college gives me hope that he’ll pull through.

    It’s not like Licht drafted a guy that was a marginal kicker in college and hoped that he’d turn out good. He drafted one of, if not, the best kicker in college football history.

  8. cmurda Says:

    I am not going to lie. I wanted Aguayo. I didn’t think we needed to trade up to the 2nd round to get him, but I did want him. I expected possibly 3rd round if the Bucs were fearful of another team drafted him, but I had my mind set on the 4th round. I definitely think Light reached and it is starting to look like a terrible decision. Since I was on board with it, I’m not going to get mouthy about the selection but if I were the GM, I would be expecting a noose with my name on it to make an appearance.

  9. cmurda Says:

    Aside fro lack of WR depth, our most glaring need to me is at safety. I’m not that high on McDougald and I know without a shadow of a doubt, I am not high on Conte. Conte is a depth guy and is a sure tackler but he’s such a huge liability when in coverage. Teams are avoiding throwing at VH3 and instead abusing our LB and safety coverage. If we had anything that resembles a pass rush, we could hide those weaknesses but we don’t and we can’t.

  10. Chris Says:

    But not accurate beyond 45, and was not automatic his last year at FSU. Bad, bad pick, but what else can I expect from my Bucs. We’ve had near a half century of picking questionable players. It’s why we are who we are. My emotion is gone now. It’s happened in previous seasons, hope getting drained when you see the handwriting on the wall.

  11. 813bucboi Says:

    didn’t know we were in rebuilding mode, I thought that was last year….

    any kick from Roberto here on out is an adventure…I cant believe he still hasn’t gotten this together….week 1 he was perfect…week2 he missed 1 kick and week 3 he missed 2 kicks…see the pattern…it may get worse before it gets better and im being nice….

    I noticed spence not playing as well….the undrafted rookie out of auburn played most of the game….I also saw spence in the mall and he looked like a rb or lb….he’s listed at 250 but I know that’s a stretch…I think he’s more like 240 tops….physically I don’t think he’s ready for the trenches….hayes must know something we don’t….GO BUCS!!!!

  12. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Says:

    Tampa took a big gamble taking a kicker so highly, and it does not appear to be working out. One can only wonder how many more games he will cost us, or if he will come around. I bite my nails now, every time he comes on the field.
    He was awesome at FSU, so WTF is wrong with him ?

  13. Chris Says:

    OneBuc , I’m not sure anyone affiliated with the defense knows anything about player evaluation. You hype Spence all preseason and play him little in a game your defense Sefarian Jenkins themselves all game? He gets a sack in the second half against Arizona and doesn’t play against the Rams? Is anyone safe on that defense? If you brought up two safeties from the practice squad or from the street I don’t think anyone here would have a problem with it

  14. The Buc Realist Says:


    I would throw in a TE into that glaring need!!! one that can Block and catch!!!! running game takes a step back every time stocker is hurt!!!!!

    Oh, by the way, Sebastian Janikowski had a rough year 1 as well!!!!! Can anyone sneak in some headphones into RA19 helmet so he can listen to his favorite mariachi band!!!!!

    Vamos Bucs!!!!!!!!!

  15. 813bucboi Says:

    with that pick we could’ve gotten any of these players that wouldn’t made an impact or at least provided depth

    carl nassib-de-3rd round
    tajae sharpe-wr-5th round
    Bronson kaufusi-de/dt-3rd round
    Andrew billings-dt-4th round
    vonn bell-safety-2nd round(2 picks after Roberto)
    deon bush-safety-4th round

    GO BUCS!!!!

  16. Chris Says:

    Geez enough of the Sea Bass talk. I know, I know another FSU kicker to compare . How much a difference maker has Janikowski been in his 50 years in Oakland? Any big kicks to win playoff games? No ! Because beginning with that year, the Raiders front office pissed all over themselves with the slew of draft picks from the Chucky haul. Don’t compare another inept orginization with this one. Kickers are inconsequential . Except when that can’t make kicks. They’re on the field , what, 5 minutes maybe of every game. Too much value for such a little utilized position

  17. Chris Says:

    It’s why there’s so do many undrafted, 5th round 6 th round kickers who do make it. You don’t have to be Jason Licht smug genius to find one without pissing away draft picks.

  18. pick6 Says:

    i wonder how much the team’s desire to get cute with kickoffs is impacting aguayo’s muscle memory on FGs. i know nothing about the ins and outs of kicking, but it did seem like his steady streak coincided with a stretch of games where they were mainly just asking him to kick it out of the end zone on kickoffs and not try those lob kicks to pin returners deeper. today we pinned the rams back in a key situation, but if those moments are coming at the expense of our kicker’s reliability in getting points i’d say it’s a bad tradeoff overall.

    maybe let the kid just work on kicking it as straight as he can as far as he can right now to cement his place in the league, and then work on directional kicking later, assuming the NFL doesn’t succeed in banning kickoffs entirely

  19. DB55 Says:

    If RA spends his time kicking into the net rather than watching the game his accuracy would improve. Where’s the STs coach?

  20. Buc1987 Says:


    Die, just die.

  21. Tom Edrington Says:

    Fans aren’t bitter, the kid is giving them bitter beer face

  22. Buc1987 Says:

    ASJ, Sweezy, Aguayo etc etc

    Jason your ass should be on fire….

  23. Mort Says:

    Cut the kid a break, he is a ROOKIE. Peyton Manning wasn’t Peyton Manning his rookie year. And first round pick janikowski wasn’t even top tier his rookie year either. Just like any other position, he will take time to transition mentally to th he NFL.

    It’s a long-term pick, not a short-term “cure all”. Get over it.

  24. RealBucFan Says:

    I laugh at the majority of these comments. It’s why I stopped coming and reading Joe Bucs (Nothing against you Joe, it’s the ignorance of the comments, just gets me heated), the national media is right about TB fans, it’s not a educated fan base. I’m seeing comments saying Winston is the problem, smh, or blaming Jackson, or Aguayo, well here is a fact, a 22 year old qb is not supposed to make all the right decisions like a 30 year old veteran, but guess what, he is way ahead of any 22 year old qb I have ever seen, we are DAMN lucky to have this man under center. And for ya’ll to dog VJax is just straight sad and f’ed up, remember he is coming off some leg injuries, and do you ever think he might not be 100% yet? Nope. Ya’ll dog him. And last Aguayo, you can’t teach the amount of talent this kid has, there is a huge difference from kicking in College to the Pro’s, he has 1 bad game and your dogging him. Well let me teach you something about sports in general, it’s never about one guy, it’s about a team, and right now you are seeing a very talented young football team going thru growing pains with a new HC (Who is also learning how to be a HC in this league, remember he has never been a HC in NFL), a brand new defense, and yes our defense is not good, but it’s our 3rd different defense in 4 years, you cannot gel as a unit in 1 off season in a whole new defensive system. It won’t happen. But I guarantee when it does later in the season, you will see this Bucs team go on a nice 5 game win streak. In the game of football you win as a team, and lose as a team. I see a team trying to get that break thru win, and I think it might be next week. If we go into our bye week 2-3, that is a huge win for us. We are close, we need a signature win, to wake up that dusty, winning mentality we had from 1997 to 2005. It takes 1 signature win, ONE. And if we can hand the defending Superbowl Champs their first loss, that’s pretty defining, Den is due for a down game. Even if we don’t do it next week, we can do it in front of a national audience in Carolina. We come together next week, get the win and everyone on this site will be like I never said anything bad about this team. People, if you are a Real fan, like me, you will open your eyes and see we have a talented young football team, and a young qb that will give you TB fans a lot of wins in his career, and a superbowl or 2. Grow up, love your team no matter what, babies point fingers, and support your Buccaneers. My peace has been said. (Miss ya Joe, just can’t deal with this)

  25. BuccaneEric75 Says:

    813, on one of the last podcasts, the Commish said he weighed 243. I was hoping he’d get up to 260.

  26. RealBucFan Says:

    Also the blame Licht is getting is insane. He is one of the best gm’s in football. His 1st draft here. We got Mike Evans, Chuck Sims, Kevin Pamphile, all starters. 2nd Draft Jameis, Ali Marpet, Donavan Smith and Kwon Alexander, all starters. 3rd Draft Vernon Hargreaves, Noah Spence, and we don’t know about the rest yet, but also He brought in Humphries undrafted, Cameron Brate undrafted, Joe Hawley off waivers, just think about your words on our gm before you dog him. He is hitting at like 650 in the draft, uhhhhh that’s unreal.

  27. firethecannons Says:

    Really Joe–that was some f’d up thinking on your part.

    It is all about morale, Defense busts ass to get Offense ball–they bust ass to get it down field, we come away with NOTHING! It is a morale killer–that is the point. The next drive the Rams take it for touchdown easily with no effort put forth from the defense–why–because wtf is the point when the kicker is allowed to lose the game for us.

  28. firethecannons Says:

    After the failed kick, all the players pat him on the back and give him encouragement–Are focking kidding me!

  29. BigMacAttack Says:

    The Bucs have had a couple of young free agent kickers over the last several years but they cut them loose and they are kicking for other teams. Our team is cursed.

  30. Kobe Faker Says:

    Carolina pickup michael griffen safety ex pro bowler

    Jason gump use up glaser boys screwup money already?

  31. TouchDownTampaBay Says:

    @ realbucfan, he has had more than I bad game. He was missing in preseason and he missed his only field goal attempt against the Cardinals. You can find 10 -20 guys not playing in the NFL that can do better than that. Spending a 2nd rounder for that is a huge mistake. We just lost our first game in no small part because of his inability to make a couple of simple kicks. That simply can’t happen. I’m sure Licht thought he was the smartest guy in the room when he traded up to take him. We just shipped out a former second rounder, have another one that would be gone now if we hadn’t drafted him so high (see Kyke Brindza), and none of the players drafted I the 5th-7th rounds under Lichts tenure have even made it to a regular season game. He should be very cincerned about job security at this point. We could have used some serviceable safeties and depth with all of those wasted picks!

  32. Buccaneer scotty Says:

    Get Gould !

  33. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Speaking for Pablo

    “Pablo knows his JBF amigos are wondering what Pablo thinks about his homeboy kicker Roberto. Well, Pablo is embarrassed by El Asesino’s failure thus far. Pablo thinks he may have to change his nickname to El Ass. Pablo hopes that Roberto can turn things around quickly. Pablo is a Buc Fan first and a Hispanic next. Pablo doesn’t care if our next kicker is named Hohn Hones.”

  34. Conte Piscateli Says:

    I don’t blame Licht. He took a ballsy chance, did the same with Marpet. Wouldn’t be ballsy if it had a high success rate. Problem is the kid doesn’t give the team the best chance to win games now. 52 other guys need the best available kicker. They say Licht isn’t afraid to admit his mistakes and moved on. I guess we will see. I imagine another game like this and we will see if Licht is able to swallow his pride.

  35. Kevin Says:

    Joe I think with your sources and connections, maybe try and do some.digging on the coaching Aguayo has received since coming here. I dont see how a guy so good can all.of a sudden not have it. Seems to me someone has gotten in his head changing his kicking motion or something. It just doeant add up. Maybe he is just nervous but you.dont just lose your talent when.your a kicker

  36. Rod Munch Says:

    Morten Andersen, probably the best kicker in NFL history, his rookie year was only 2 of 5… his second year he was only 18 of 24 AND missed a 2yd PAT.

    Kicker are seldom great as rookies, period. Anyone thinking that this guy just forgot how to kick is a moron. When you go from college to the NFL you’re changing hashes, you’re changing the ball and obviously you’re under a lot more pressure. What would be ideal is if he say got a sprained toe this week and the team had to put him on IR, then next season I think we’d see someone much more ready for the pressure and someone who would be the kicker that we thought we were getting. Anyone saying to cut him is just someone who doesn’t understand the game, probably thinks we should cut Winston after throwing for 400 yards and 3 TDs because he only got to the 4 yard line on the last play of the game against one of the best D’s in the game.

    Just chill out ladies. The kicker will longterm be fine, but I do agree that rookie kickers are hard to count on, historically that has been the case. Again perhaps after next week or the week after if it continues he can have a “knee sprain” or something that forces the team to put him on IR as that might be for the best for now. He’ll be a good NFL kicker and he will kick in the NFL for a very long time, you’re not the best kicker in college history for nothing.

  37. Joe Says:


    So you want Aguayo’s teammates to punch him at midfield?

  38. meh Says:

    Shorter Joe: “Sure Aguayo sucked, but he would have sucked worse if you gave him more chances.”

  39. dusthty rhothdes Says:

    what the eagles did was a great move but what licht did was something forest gump could do

  40. LUVMYBUCS Says:

    We’ve got some excellent draft experts on this board, but they are only experts AFTER the draft. Minor detail.

    Lets take it to the tape

    Draft 2nd & 3rd Round Open Thread
    April 29th, 2016<—

  41. Tackleblockwin Says:

    I just don’t understand how he is all of a sudden missing after years of being so accurate. If he missed one kick it would be no big deal. But no doubt about it, when he lines up to kick now I’m nervous.

  42. BuccoDav Says:

    “He’s got one job. He doesn’t have to get in the grass/mud and get dirty. He does not even have to..hit anybody. He doesn’t even have to block. JUST KICK. And kick accurately. He’s done it a thousand times with accuracy.”

    He’s got one job. He doesn’t have to get in the grass/mud and get dirty. He does not even have to..hit anybody. He doesn’t even have to block. JUST THROW.. And THROW accurately. He’s done it a thousand times with accuracy.

    It’s interesting when you change a VERB. Isn’t it?

  43. Jimmy Says:

    Any of you clods see the Saints last night pulled a kicker off the street who hit a 57-yarder? Bet he wasn’t a second round pick.

  44. 911bucs Says:

    I don’t understand the thought of faking an injury and placing him on IR. I feel letting him kick his way out of it if possible is the best option. Re-evaluate at the end of the season then if he’s not progressing then think about adding another kicker.

  45. Chris Says:

    Booker Reese, we traded a first round pick to move up in the second . It’s not like we don’t have a history of incompetent moves here. We traded another # 1 pick to get Jack( the throwing Samoan) Thompson. By the way, they’ll talk of the Agauyo pick in the same terms as those picks in the future

  46. Chris Says:

    And you saw the safety’s we had, thought it was a good idea to keep them, smh

  47. Hawaiian Buc Says:

    “Any of you clods see the Saints last night pulled a kicker off the street who hit a 57-yarder? Bet he wasn’t a second round pick.”


    Here’s the thing, we’ve tried to do the same thing and been unsuccessful. Would you be equally upset if we got an undrafted kicker and he struggled? Probably not . For myself personally, I didn’t like the pick, even though I did understand the reasoning. I know there are many that hated it. However, I don’t know anyone that thought he was going to be a terrible kicker, as he is so far (“so far” being the key words). Most of us thought he was a sure thing, but he just wasn’t worth a second round pick. Nobody, and I mean nobody, thought he wasn’t going to have a good career. It just goes to show that every pick and every pick up is a bit of a crap shoot. There is no such thing as a sure thing. If he doesn’t turn this thing around and we get rid of him, he will join the long list of bad picks we’ve made in our franchise history. I understand why, but it’s really not fair to separate this one from all the others.

  48. Hawaiian Buc Says:

    Adding to my point, who is to say if we used that pick on a safety or WR it would have turned out to be a good player? The second round is full of busts for all teams, year in and year out.

  49. LUVMYBUCS Says:

    April 30th, 2016 at 7:37 am ←-
    Time will tell, but I wonder why he’s regressed over past two seasons.

  50. Buc1987 Says:

    LMAO Joe…”punch him”.

    I don’t think he means all out punch him Joe, but a good kick to the nuts would satisfy me, because that’s what he’s doing to the the team and the fan base.

    Once again I repeat I was AGAINST drafting Aguayo in ANY round. Forget the about the trade and cut our losses before the losses start to mount up even more from the end of his toe.

    He’s lost his mojo.

    Brought to you by a Nole crazed, long time Buc fan.

  51. Natedawg Says:

    Licht is a good drafter but he failed and every1 knew it on this pick… especially with so many holes on this team…

  52. Brent bull/buc Says:

    I said all along that de from Maryland or dt jarron reed and a receiver. I believe sharpe or cooper were still there in 4th rd. there’s 2 guys instead of Aguayo. I said it draft day.

  53. RealBucFan Says:

    Man Ya’ll are the definition of why the media calls bucs fans uneducated babies. Your telling me that Jankowski, and Nugent had great rookie years? Jankowski was 68% his rookie year, Nugent 78%, sure Aguayo is 1-3 on the season, but that’s the reason we are 1-2, here is a fact, kickers don’t go 100%, rarely 90%, and average around 80%. Kicks are missed all the time, great teams don’t let it affect them. They still win. It’s a kickers fault when you lose by 1, because he missed a 40 yarder with 2 seconds left. And to bring up his miss against Arizona is insane, we got our assessment handed to us as a team, his miss was as important as a fly on a bulls ass. This kid is going to be a game winner for us, and I’m calling all you morons out when he does it. If you think a kicker will get us to the playoffs, refer to sentence 1 in my post.

  54. Cobraboy Says:

    The kid has the yips. It’s obvious.

    They need to kick his ass, put him on IR with a broken ass, and bring in a kicker who is not mental.

  55. DallasBuc Says:

    Same old excuse-maker takes around here. Licht has a few good if not great unexpected hits on his resume like Marpet and Alexander but there exists a blind spot on the majority of personnel decisions that fall into one of 3 categories:
    2)oh sht
    3)abject failure
    Carry on excuse-makers for the exhalted free-pass Licht. There is a strong guess among the skeptics in the audience that some of those in charge of calling it straight have a conflict of interest.

  56. Rich Says:

    The ball is different! Why draft a kicker so high when he has no experience kicking pro size footballs.

  57. Yahmuni Magwood Says:

    before i begin,honestly no one will probably agree and this is the lease expected solution to all the problems with this organization…the problem truly is the name of the organization..think about it once the tampa bay devilrays changed there names to the tampa bay rays,the organization immediately began to shift towards the right direction…this is definetly the problem with the bucanneers and it need to be addressed someway or another.

  58. daveman Says:

    I was living in New Orleans when the Saints drafted Russel Erxleben in the first round. This was pre Tom Benson ownership days and ownership was cheap. Erxleben kicked and punted so the ownership thought, hey, we can save money. He was a failure just like the Bucs kicker is looking to be but worse. He cost a bunch of games early in his rookie season.

    The joke going around was “Russel Erxleben tried to kill himself with a gun… but he missed wide right.” Hopefully it doesn’t go that far.

  59. JJBucFan Says:

    Here are some stats for you morons:

    Janikowski- 6/6 20-29
    6/7 30-39
    8/14 40-49
    1/4 >50
    He missed 3 extra points from the old spot and 1 last year

    Vinatieri – 9/10 20-29
    8/8 30-39
    8/14 40-49
    1/2 > 50
    Missed 3 extra points that year and has missed 13 career extra points and 3 last year

    Gostkowski 10/11 20-29
    7/10 30-39
    2/4 40/49
    1/1 > 50
    Missed an extra point from the old spot

    Not one of you would get rid of those guys knowing what you know now. So shut the hell up and let this guy get his feet wet. Yes he was a main contributor to our loss this weekend, but our defense sucks and has sucked for 3 weeks, Our clock management guy must have gone to take a crap in the last 2 minutes or he just crapped all over himself when he realized that he actually has to work and has responsibility (I was in my car yelling take timeout, take a timeout, scared the crap out of my wife and kids). Jameis should have called timeout because he knows better whether he had permission or not. Cuter should have called it because he is the coach and shouldn’t have put JW3 in that position. VAX has to catch that ball on the 10 and he walks in. We are 1-2 and 1 game back and our defense is yet to show up. If we are 2-2 after this week, any of you would have taken that before the year started and you’ll still not be happy and will think we should be 3-1, maybe you’re right but the season is far from over.

  60. JJBucFan Says:

    *Koetter stupid autocorrect