Expect Improvement

July 24th, 2016
Can he rebound?

Can he rebound?

No, Joe is not a fantasy kind of guy, but Todd Wright will fill that void in a matter of days.

As Joe likes to say, his fantasy has nothing to do with football and everything to do with Rachel Watson. Still, Joe enjoys the smart analysis that Evan Silva of Rotoworld.com offers, even if it is geared towards fantasy football and not necessarily real football.

Silva has a breakdown on the Bucs and takes a look at receivers, specifically Mike Evans. Silva isn’t so sure Evans can repeat his strong rookie season but thinks unless Evans falls off the map, he is a solid bet to improve on his Year 2 numbers.

Mike Evans’ sophomore season was a major letdown following his 12-touchdown rookie year. Unable to capitalize on a volume bump — he ranked tenth in the NFL in targets (148) — Evans posted a pathetic 50% catch rate, led the NFC in drops (15), and managed WR22 (PPR) and WR27 (non-PPR) finishes after a fringe-WR1 rookie season. Evans scored only three times on 74 receptions for an anemic 4.1% touchdown rate after posting TD rates of 17.6% in his first NFL season and 17.4% as a sophomore in the SEC. The low scoring percentage is almost certain to prove an outlier, and Evans is a safe bet to score more touchdowns. Evans’ decline in efficiency remains a concern, as does Koetter’s statement that Evans “needs to be more consistent in his preparation and work habits.” Evans could lose volume if the run-first Bucs improve at all and Vincent Jackson stays healthy. Whereas Evans averaged 12.5 targets and a 6/107 receiving line with V-Jax inactive last year, Evans’ averages dipped to 7.3 targets and a 4/66 line when V-Jax played. While Evans maintains league-leading TD upside and is an extremely valuable Dynasty asset at age 23, it is concerning that his re-draft cost has barely adjusted despite last season. Across formats, I’m letting someone else draft Evans when he goes inside the top-20 picks.

Joe thinks this season is also a big season for Evans. Can he become that dominant receiver a No. 7 overall pick should be, the guy he flashed he could be two years ago? Can working with Todd Monken be the key that unleashes Evans? Can the extra work at the encouragement of America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, do the trick?

We will soon find out.

62 Responses to “Expect Improvement”

  1. Pickgrin Says:

    I find people’s obsession with fantasy football amusing.

    It’s popularity has not been good for the game though IMO and has helped lead to all these rules that “protect” (benefit) the offense and make it very difficult to play physical defense.

    One word of relevance in that long quote popped out at me.


    We could use one of those around here about now…

    I ask you – what fan base is more deserving?

    Something tells me Jason Licht and Jameis Winston have exactly those intentions – and perhaps enough smarts and talent between them to maybe even pull it off.

    Its gonna be a fun ride over the next few years…

    I hope the consistent winning starts this year because this Tampa Bay area is STARVED for a football team we can really get behind and support unconditionally.

    Hope and the promise of success is in the air and this football season cannot start soon enough!

    I’m glad the wait for the beginning of it all is almost over with traning camp starting THIS WEEK!

    GO BUCS!!!!

  2. DallasBuc Says:

    Stop crying.
    Catch the damn ball.

  3. BigHogHaynes Says:

    Evans should push his way to the #1 reciever with V-Jack falling back to the #2 receiver and if he gets hurt, he’ll go on IR and we’ll bring in someone else and draft a receiver with our #1 pick next year!

  4. Destinjohnny Says:

    We passed on Donald and Beckham to draft him.
    He has the talent he just has to commit mind body and soul

  5. Buccfan37 Says:

    What you have seen with Evans is what you have. He is more than likely to not break free from defenders as the pass nears, find him in the brief open spot in the route, so timing is key. Go Evans! Snag them balls.

  6. Trubucfan22 Says:

    The biggest factor for Evan’s success is whether or not winston can get evans to buy into winning as a team. Evans has been a selfish player, but with Winston’s leadership he could get evans to buy in on being a team player.

  7. Bob in Valrico Says:

    believe technique can get Evans open more downfield.If you extend your arms and push off you give them something to grab onto. One thing I found
    interesting when arrelious Benn was here.He used to run at defender and
    “inadvertently bump” defender and glance off them to completete route.
    Imagine an Evans bump would be an effective way to gain separation.
    Sort of like how Doug martin only attacks a prt of defenders body and exploding off him.

  8. tmaxcon Says:

    Keep in mind this is the first year Evans has a NFl caliber / qualified WR coach… i expect dramatic improvement.

  9. JJJ Says:

    Evans is going to go Megatron on the league.

  10. SB with Jameis Says:

    I stopped reading when the guy claimed Evans had 15 drops.
    Only TWO WRs have ever had two 1,000 yard seasons before the age of 21. Randy Moss and Mike Evans.
    Go Bucs

  11. SB with Jameis Says:

    sorry meant 22

  12. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Speaking for Pablo

    “Every time Pablo reads the Miguel Evans articles and about his K-Y hands it makes Pablo regret that he didn’t have K-Y hands more often so Pablo wouldn’t have so very, very many children…..Pablo could have used some K-Y like Kellen Winslow in the parking lot at Taco Bell…..there’s one less child for Pablo”

  13. BuccaneEric75 Says:

    Pablo, LOL!

  14. tmaxcon Says:

    SB with Jameis

    1000 yards Is meaningless if you dont score TDs especially in this era of rule changes

  15. The Buc Realist Says:

    @sb with Jameis

    what about Odell B Jr
    2014 yds 1305 tds 12
    2015 yds 1450 tds 13

  16. Joe Says:

    I find people’s obsession with fantasy football amusing.

    It’s popularity has not been good for the game though

    Joe won’t go that far.

    Not a fan of fantasy football but it has spurred a massive explosion into the NFL being the 500-pound gorilla the league has become.

  17. Bob in Valrico Says:

    I expect improvement from Evans.But the key will still be the timing and accuracy of Jameis’s pass.Evans has been pretty good on the more difficult
    passes.It is the easier well thrown balls that he loses his concentration and is looking to make his move before the ball is secured.

  18. SB with Jameis Says:

    Here you go Realist
    I don’t make stuff up. I may quote em wrong but I don’t make it up

  19. The Buc Realist Says:

    @Sb with jameis

    My bad, I thought ODJ was younger than he was. He missed your cut off by a month though!!! There are some serious production from the WR that came out in that draft!!! it may turn out as one of the deepest wr draft the nfl has seen in recent times!!!

  20. BigHogHaynes Says:

    1000 yards meaningless? Every team in this league would love to have another receiver who can produce 1000yrds especially at the age of 21 yrs old. With that much production he has to be putting his team in position to score, who to blame? And O’yea, i Odell B played with an experienced QB with an semi-explosive offense. Could Odell been as productive with the Bucs? Let me answer that one hell no! And one more piece of fact Hayes-Stoker is about 10 to 15 years younger than the now OC and Reciever Coach Todd Moken that alone gives Todd more experience, but Hayes-Stoker was qualified to coach receivers! The question is, can Todd keep him progressing? CAMP STARTS SOON!

  21. The Buc Realist Says:

    It will be very interesting to see, now that the incompetent one’s shadow no longer darkens this team, of how the mental mistakes will slowly start to disappear!!!!! If the current coach regime can “coach the lovie” out of this roster by the half way point, well then that will be quite impressive!!!!!

    Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  22. tmaxcon Says:


    Once again your are wrong as usual…. stocker was a clerical personal assistant are hardly qualified nor respected by the wr room it was evident by there lack of development and poor discipline once again you are defending the color of thier skin and not there actualy qualufications.

  23. BigHogHaynes Says:

    I never once mentioned skin color, you did, the man was qualified to coach wide receivers that’s what I said, I no intent on defending any one, just did my own research and in my opinion Hayes-Stoker was qualified and Todd has more experience and more qualification, nothing to do with color. SORRY!

  24. DB55 Says:

    SB with Jameis Says:
    July 24th, 2016 at 10:40 am
    I stopped reading when the guy claimed Evans had 15 drops.
    Only TWO WRs have ever had two 1,000 yard seasons before the age of 21. Randy Moss and Mike Evans.
    Go Bucs

    If the Bucs had or were to currently have Randy Moss on the team people would call him K-Y hands and/or want him traded bc of his mouth and his dreads. Tb fans would be asking for Michael Jenkins (WR) bc of his outstanding professionalism and his beautiful smile of course.

    Mike Evans is the closest thing to Moss the Bucs will ever have, I’m frustrated that only a few can see it.

  25. Bucnut2 Says:

    The problem is not ME! We have lots of other issues. This guy is one of the top WR in the NFL.

  26. Bucnut2 Says:

    Tell JW to forget the encouragement and throw better passes!

  27. Bob in Valrico Says:

    @ DB55
    Right on Bro! And some people think four verticals means a bunch of WR’s
    running slant routes for a 10 yard average.16.3 yards a catch isn’t too shabby
    and is close to Koetter’s definition of chunk plays.

  28. Buccaneers Says:

    Evans had a nice stat line. Thats the best i can teally say about him last year. He was a total disappointment in cluch moments. I was actually doing some fantasy homework and came across an alarming stat……Mike Evans was targeted 14 times in the Redzone and hauled in a whopping 2 whole catches. Thats pathetic!! Factor in the 2 forty yard bombs yhat bounced off his chest(right between the 1&3) and it gets worse.

    You can point to stats and say that Mike had a good season. I dont care for that argument. When your #1 wideout is an unreliable pass catcher its harder to win games…..that all that matters.

    Mike Evans has enough talent to win us games, he needs to tighten up and quit losing them for us.

    GO BUCS!!!!!!

  29. DB55 Says:


    You are what’s wrong with the TB fanbase. ME is losing games for us? Laughable at best. I bet you also believe #93 is the best DT in the league. #pathetic

  30. Bob in Valrico Says:

    suggest you watch week 17
    mike Evans Josh norman duel on U tube
    You will see 4 receptions for 99 yards that Winston threaded to Evans and
    he made good catches in traffifor 99 yards.
    Now for your silly target rate for fantasy football.
    3 bad throws to the endzone from Winston:
    1. over Evans head to the Wrong side
    2.one bad pass thrown to Josh norman that should have been intercepted.
    3.One forced throw to Evans with two defenders right in front of Evans that should never been thrown.
    please explain to me how in the world that this is pathetic on Mike Evans part.three targets in the red zone and they all were Winstons fault.
    4.another that Winston .that Evans and announcer said wasn’t a drop.
    blurry video but Winston was not in best position to throw this ball accurately.
    5.and another fell incomplete because Josh norman was holding Evans.
    Since it fell incomplete it was another target foolishly charged to Evans.
    so Evans is targeted 9 times and made panthers look silly on the only four passes threw well to him.
    Now i do remember a very good pass that went through Evans hands and that is on him.but the passes that hit the defender, sailed over his head went to the wrong side over his head including one in the endzone.Evans was also targeted in the endzone another time and it fell in the endzone Evans broke the play off.
    Not sure if he was coming back to QB or not.but he was showing some kind of
    hand signal that may or not have meant he was breaking off the route.


  31. LargoBuc Says:

    For some reason, I just think last season was more bad luck than anything. Look at Evans at A&M and his rookie year. He never had trouble catching the ball. I hope last year was just an anomaly and Evans figures out how to use his size and athletic ability.

  32. Bob in Valrico Says:

    Can’t really think of a single game Mike Evans actually lost on his own.But I can think
    of 24 that Lovie smith bad personnel decisions, poor game management , poor preparation had a hand in.

  33. DB55 Says:


    Well he got ejected for “crying” trade him now or better yet cut him now.

  34. tickrdr Says:

    @ Bob in Valrico:
    Very nice post! Appreciate the videos which complement your post so well.
    Mike Evans in 2013: 12 TDs from Manziel.
    Mike Evans in 2014: 12 TDs from McCown and MG8, how terrible were they.
    Mike Evans in 2015: 3 TDs from JW3.


  35. Bob in Valrico Says:

    The reason they call it a receiver QB tandem is because both players play a part in completion rate.Does evans have to clean up personal fouls,and drops, sure but so too does Winston have to be more accurate and time his passes
    better at times. believe these two can only get better with more familiariarity.

  36. Bob in Valrico Says:

    thanks tickrdr
    good to see you are still reading.Expect more from JW3 this year.Also think he should steal a page from MG8 by throwing the ball out of bounds or in the dirt when nothing is available as in that game I referenced.We drafted a Brett Farve
    type gunslinger and we will live and die by his decisions. To be fair to the Mike Evans and Jameis, I don’t really think their timing was in sync last year due to mike Evans missing some of training camp and first game or so.But 2014 should be the standard for this tandem in my book.something interesting to
    me was McCown had more completions for td’s to Evans while MG8 seemed to
    be more comfortable with VJAX,if memory serves.

  37. Bob in Valrico Says:

    @ DB55
    hey bud,all I can think of Johnny Drouhan at this moment on the lightning.If you are talking about the ejection in the Carolina game,the only thing I can think of is that Evans thought he was pushed out of bounds,or quite possibly the frustration of playing for Lovie in 2015. Am I in the ball park ?

  38. Buccaneers Says:

    Mike Evans did help us lose games. Critical drops at key moments do exactly that. True #1s rise up in these moments.

    We need Mike making all the plays he does…….and Im freaking, sorry we need more. Sorry bro, you cant let huge plays bounce off your chest. You have to catch them every time…… I aint saying you have to catch an Odell over-the-shoulder One Hander. Im saying you cant let 6 points reflect off of your chest. I know that isnt asking too much and I know its unacceptable. Legit #1s make these plays, Evans needs to make em too.

    And dont be so quick to blame a bad looking throw on the QB every time…….Evans has some issues fighting through coverage…….If Winstons throwig a ball to the sidelines and Evans aint even made it to the hashes yet I can bet you that ball wasnt supposed to be thrown to the hashes.

  39. SB with Jameis Says:

    Some of my Favorite JBF posters bantering in here today!!
    I love it! Carry on my friends and GO BUCS!!!!!

  40. Bob in Valrico Says:

    all this time, and you also have been tracking mike Evans Stats.Keep up the good work and stop in and say hello more often.

  41. steve Says:

    I am a BIG Mike Evans fan and hope and pray he becomes the player we all know he can be. That being said so far Mike is to the offence what Gerald is to the defence. They both put up decent numbers but when you need them the most mike will drop the damn ball and Gerald can’t buy a sack.

  42. DB55 Says:

    Buccaneers says:

    Mike Evans did help us lose games. Critical drops at key moments do exactly that
    Can you be more specific? What play/game are you talking about? When did he lose a game?

  43. DB55 Says:


    or quite possibly the frustration of playing for Lovie in 2015.
    Although I’m sure it was the push I like your second reason better. #loviedovie

  44. Bob in Valrico Says:

    @buccaneers you post a bs stat to back up your position and the video I posted clearly showed three bad passes in the endzone to disprove it.Did he drop some passes for critical third downs and the one long pass I remember yes Did he make some big plays and make Winston look good,at least as many as those critical drops you are so concerned about.Only fair for Winston to be just as perfect as you expect Evans to be this year.
    If Evans is at the hashmark then don’t you think should put the ball somewhere in between hashmark and the sideline.Winston is supposed to time evans progress.Before I go too much farther,I will say that I am very impressed with Winston but I feel he can do more.in the accuracy dept..cameron brate was camped out in the endzone in one game and Winston missed him by a couple of yards.Winston needs to keep up his growth and improve his red zone efficiency.Koetter said it and I agree that both Winston and Evans have to work together to improve their chemistry.

  45. Bob in Valrico Says:

    @SB with Jameis,
    come on in the waters fine,bro

  46. Buccaneers Says:

    Sorry DB55-I dont remwber the exact games. I just remeber him dropping balls when games were in the balance. He shares a part of the blame in those consequencal losses IMO. It may sound like Im solely blamig Evans for a specific loss but thats just because we are only discusing Evans……..also i tend to get a bit sensitive when it comes to the Bucs losing.

  47. Buccaneers Says:

    Bob its not a BS stat…..as i said it was alarming. It ! may need to be put into better context since an incompletion isnt alwaus a bad play from a WR……..I apperiacte your one game analysis but the stat i gave was a season long statistic.

    The Panthers game wasnt the only good game he had. The problem is when he has let down moments throughout a whole season. No player in this league can leave easy plays/points on the field and not hear about it……until he fixes it or gets replaced.

  48. Bob in Valrico Says:

    just trying to point out there is no validity for evaluating a receiver with target
    rate except for projecting scores in fantasy football.Eventhough it has been used on this site.The Carolina game showed just some of the things that can affect it in a real game.

  49. tickrdr Says:

    @Bob in Valrico:
    Thanks for the sentiments. I read every single post on JBF, or at least I try to, but many are almost impossible to decipher. I enjoy the musings of many here though, and almost always appreciate yours, and Defense Rules and DB55 for instance.

    I don’t post very much, as my opinions are certainly out of sync with the majority of posters here.

    One last note FWIW, MG8 had 4 TDs to ME13 in 4 games together in 2014, and JM12 had the remaining 8 TDs, and you are correct that MG8 connected with VJ83 for 7 TDs in 2013. As I’ve stated before, I feel the Bucs may be greatly improved this year, however their record may not reflect that improvement, as the strength of their opponents will likely be tough to overcome. Does everyone think that most of our opponents who had better records than the Bucs last year have all declined since last year so we will easily leap-frog them this year?


  50. Bob in Valrico Says:

    Defensive holding also counts against receiver,interceptions count against the receiver,and tipped passes count against the the receiver.All of these things
    have zero to do with a WR’s performance.conversely if Evans drops 6 passes in the giants game (over half his drops by the way) it gives Jameis a very crappy completion % for the day.At the end of the day both WR and QB have to on the same page.
    and I believe Evans gets held in coverage primarily when he extends his hands and gives DB a target to grab onto.

  51. Buccaneers Says:

    No Bob…..I dont not think Winston should throw to the hashmarks on a sideline route. Sideline routes(collectively) are one of he most popular in the game…….likely because they ate the least risky……they are called to elimante risk. The QB needs to be able to throw jis share of safe passes and have his best wideout be on that sideline when its wide open. Mike needs to be threre because its his responsibility………The QB doesnt need to do anything more ten put the ball where it belongs……I dont think they will be calling sideline routes when they want Winston to do some ad lib and force the ball downfield.

  52. Bob in Valrico Says:

    I am in agreement with you on the defenses we will faceand improvement is job1.hoping we can sneak by Denver since they may not have solidified their QB situation,but there will be pressure,i think more than Winston has ever faced.They beat up both Brady and Newton pretty good.

  53. DB55 Says:

    Tickrdr says:

    don’t post very much, as my opinions are certainly out of sync with the majority of posters here.

    That’s the best part of JBF. 🙂

  54. Buccaneers Says:

    It boils down to only one thing for me…..Mike Evans needs to improve.

    I dont care about the route running…….I can live with his current abilities.

    I dont care about pass interference………..He has to be good enough to fight through it, which has has with an occasional pushoff.

    I dont care about his attitude……Which has gotten in the way at times.

    What i do care about is him letting balls bounce off his chest…….You gotta catch those man, there is no other answer when the ball hits you like that. This isnt playschool football. Youre a pro reciever………….If freaking Lewis Murphy or Dermaine Dye is expectex to make those catches so are you Mike Evans. I dont care what other plays you made…..Make that one too!!!! I mean dam…….we drafted you top co e in here and be our best reciever…..you cant catch a ball thrown right at you??? Now thats some BS

  55. Bob in Valrico Says:

    Mike Evans makes those tough sideline catches and displays great toe tapping abilty when doing it.Most of his misses are the easier kind where he doesn’t secure the ball before taking off. you missed my point if Evans is not where Jameis thinks he should be he should make an adjustment on his
    pass or roll out to give Evans more time.This is what aaron Rogers would do and I believe
    a skill that jameis has already proven he has.A very good example is a pass that jameis threw to Charles Sims he moved around in the pocket sort of waved to Sims.
    and completed a pass that sims with a good effort got in the endzone with.
    ad libbing is good,and I agree forcing is bad,bad,bad.

  56. Bob in Valrico Says:

    perhaps you should go back and watch mike Evans highlights for 2014 and 2015 and replace those 11 drops indelibly etched in your head with some of good play Mike Evans has made for us over the last two years.

  57. JAB83 Says:


    IF YOU DONT KNOW….. now you know… Nothing but respect and love for this guy… Wish him a long and healthy career…. You are watching the BEST WR WE WILL EVER HAVE (perhaps but Im not counting on living to see the next one).

    Bottom Line you so called fans… Or as I refer to them here on JBF… FANS OF DEPRESSION…. ENJOY WHAT YOUR SEEING…. In this case I highly advice the advice of momma Gump… Stjpid is as stupid does…. Dont be sthpid and trash this guy… If.you dont have anything nice to say… Dont say it… Its uncalled for…. Clearly the kid is a beast yet to hit his prime… SO ENJOY THE JOURNEY or STF


  58. Buccaneers Says:

    Bob Winston should be be required to read his reciever that much on a sideline route. Sideline routes are extensive so i will narrow it down to a twenty yard sideline throw. Presnap Winston has to see the coverage and see that he has a crease beyond the short coverage safety. When the ball gts snapped Winston needs to look away from his desired sideline. With his second eye he bettr make sure they didnt disguise the coverage on him. Then Winston better use his timing, turn towards his sideline at the last posible second and step into his throw.

    How in the world could you expect Winston to look off hiscoverage then turn then reassemble the entire coverage then make a new decision on a new location to throw the ball? Theres no freaking way Aaron Rodgers does all that within a pocket.

  59. Bob in Valrico Says:

    @ buccaneers
    Moving on to 2016.Mike Evans knows and wants to improve and I think he will.willhe drop some passes. yes Jameis will throw touchdowns,Jameis will improvise Jameis also wants to improve and I believe he will.Jameis will throw some force some passes and hopefully make some spectacular plays with Mike Evans.Thats football,my friend.Enjoy the 2016 season.

  60. Bob in Valrico Says:

    meant to say throw some pics

  61. Buccaneers Says:

    I dont think a rollout is designed for that play………if Winston identifies the coverage and route he wants he should makethat throw everytime knowing its a good look. If the play isnt there, and considering the QB read it right, the worst case is an incomplete……..It doesnt hurt much. No need for Winston to roll out if he has a good playcall and a thecoveragee he wants for it.

    Rollouts should happen by design or when the covergage isnt whats expected…….It not a tool that only AAron Rodgers (and only the greats use) uses each time the play doesnt work out like it does on paper…….them guys have their fair share of throw aways jjst like any QB thats ever played.

  62. Buccaneers Says:

    Hey Bob…..Thats not a bad idea. I cant wait to move onto 2016. I expect Evans to helplead this team. I honestly dont care about his2015 failures…….The slates clean. Hes our best reciever and Im excited about it……….He can do a!ot of good for this team if he can make all he catches.