Vegas Eyeing Fourth-Best Bucs

April 4th, 2016

ron riveraWhy are the brilliant oddsmaker brains of Las Vegas down on the Buccaneers?

Yes, Joe is interested. The Vegas dudes are the original data guys, who combine reality into their endless analytics.

Across the Vegas sports books, the Bucs are largely pegged for an over-under win total of 6 1/2 games in 2016. Especially interesting is that the Falcons and Saints are pegged for seven or 7 1/2 wins.

Joe had a long discussion about this with a hardcore Bucs fan yesterday over too many beers. Joe maintains Vegas is sour on the Bucs for a few reasons: Tampa Bay is seen as having the worst coach and the worst quarterback in the NFC South, and their defense is an unknown.

Joe’s adjective choice of  “worst” may be harsh, but that’s a reality for most observers. Joe hears the knocks on Drew Brees, but the guy led the NFL in passing yards last year while completing 68.3 percent of his passes, the second best rate in the league. What more do people want from the guy?

Dirk Koetter has much to prove when compared to Ron Rivera and Sean Payton, and Dan Quinn was 8-8 last year.

After five consecutive last place finishes, clearing the cellar absolutely is the Bucs’ biggest hurdle. They just won’t get (deserve?) any respect until they can.

30 Responses to “Vegas Eyeing Fourth-Best Bucs”

  1. Kevin Says:

    Sad but true they must first show us they can win. Although I am confident this year is the year a different team will finish last in the south!

  2. DallasBuc Says:

    When the team sucks year in and year out why would anyone expect them to be good? Gotta win before people even take notice.

  3. The Buc Realist Says:

    You always get points deducted for having new coaching staffs. And between other teams major injuries and the schedule it was one of the softest schedules, so the Bucs were due for a much more difficult schedule!!!! The Bucs could have 6 wins and still be a much improved team!!! Cut down the blowouts ( I think that lovie was blown out 1 out of every 4 games!!!) and be in games in the 4th quarter would be a total turn around at this point!!!!!

    To climb out of the cellar, one must first turn on the light!!!!!

    Go Bucs!!!!

  4. TheShaz Says:

    I agree with Kevin.

    WE might hope and pray the Bucs are a better team. But until they PROVE IT on the field…..nobody outside of Tampa is going to buy in.

    The NFC South is a tough division, the defending NFC Champion, Drew Brees and Company and Matty Ryan and his gang.

    I would not mind to see the Bucs under the radar to start the season, but if they stay under the radar it means we are losing game after game.

    The team will either win games and therefore respect or they don’t and we stay in the gutter.

  5. Defense Rules Says:

    Your last 3 sentences say it all Joe.

  6. Bucsfanman Says:

    Earn it! Plain and simple.

  7. Newbucsfan2 Says:

    Just the facts man. I agree with all said above. Let the games begin…time will tell how it all plays out. But you know, maybe the unknown factor will finally come back into play with this team …heart!
    GO BUCS!!

  8. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Says:

    I agree with Kevin, a different team will finish last in the NFC South this year.
    It will not be Tampa!

  9. America's Commenter Says:

    This article really does put 2016 into perspective. The Bucs have a lot to prove on offense, defense, and coaching.

    If Jameis “(alternate) Pro Bowler” Winston is truly the 4th best QB in the division, then he’s clearly not in the top 10-12 QB’s in the NFL, maybe not even in the top half.

    Dirk Koetter certainly talks the talk like an excellent head coach, but he will have to prove he can walk the walk. It’s fair to put him at the 4th best coach in the division.

    The defense may end up being the strength of the team. Mike Smith is a proven commodity, he’s definitely the most accomplished defensive coordinator in the division, and he has some legitimate star power on defense in McCoy, David, Alexander, and Grimes. If they can generate an outside pass rush and cover the slant, their performance should improve dramatically.

    With the tougher schedule, it’s reasonable to expect the Bucs to win 6 or 7 games and consider that an improvement over 2015. However, first year coaching staffs are prone to booms or busts, meaning the Bucs could easily regress to 4 wins or they could have a break out season and win 9 games.

    The bottom line is that Vegas is probably right on the money with the 6.5 win over/under. I choose to believe in Koetter, Smith, and Winston, so I’m going with the over.

  10. R.O. Says:

    And Brees’s stats did not translate to wins. Need a balanced team to win consistently. Stats for any 1 player especially at QB does not = winning.

  11. StPeteBucsFan Says:

    You always get points deducted for having new coaching staffs.

    Agree completely with that Realist. And normally it makes sense. But we haven’t really undergone a TOTAL coaching change…new staff…new ideas…as much as simply removing the dead wood from last year’s staff.

    The normal break in continuity responsible for deducting those points is not in place this year with the Bucs. We obviously have virtually the same offense and coaches including Bajakian and Warhop. Offense should not skip a beat and in fact has plenty to build on.

    The defense is obviously an different story but we still have some great corps players and have improved dramatically at DC.

    As always our record will be affected greatly by injuries and luck. I’m hopeful those will go our way this year.

  12. StPeteBucsFan Says:

    Oops apologies for the italics…I’m having trouble typing into the actual website and have been cutting and pasting from word.

    Anybody else having trouble? I don’t know the computer term for it but you type and your fingers enter five words before you see the first appear. It does seem better this morning however. Maybe it was just yesterday.

  13. LUVMYBUCS Says:

    Why is Vegas Down on The Bucs?

    Because Scared Money Don’t Make Money

    Sign Greg Hardy !

    Based on Last Years Stats (Note:Hardy on played 12 Games)
    1. Robert Ayers: COMB: 41 | FF: 2 | *SACK: 9.5
    2. Gerald McCoy: COMB: 34 | FF: 0 | *SACK: 8.5
    3. Jacquies Smith: COMB: 22 | FF: 3 | *SACK : 7.0
    4. Greg Hardy: COMB: 35 | FF: 1 | *SACK: 6.0
    5. Howard Jones: COMB: 14 | FF: 1 | *SACK: 5.0
    6. William Gholston: COMB: 67 | FF: 1 | *SACK: 3.0
    7. Akeem Spence: COMB: 11 | FF: 0 | *SACK: 1.0
    8. George Johnson: COMB: 23 | FF: 1 | *SACK: 0.0

    Projections on Rushing Downs
    LDE Robert Ayers | William Gholston
    LDT Gerald McCoy | Derrick Lott
    RDT Akeem Spence | Clinton McDonald
    RDE Greg Hardy | Jacquies Smith | Howard Jones

    Projection on Passing Downs
    LDE Greg Hardy | William Gholston
    LDT Gerald McCoy | Derrick Lott
    RDT Robert Ayers | Clinton McDonald
    RDE Jacquies Smith | Howard Jones

  14. The Buc Realist Says:


    I did see that JBF was down yesterday late afternoon for a few seconds. But if your slow type happens on another webpage then something is running in the back ground!!! Run junkware removal tool from malwarebytes ( its free ) and it will tune you up most of the time!!!

  15. Pick6 Says:

    good time to put a few hundred down on the Over. the schedule is certainly tougher than last year, but i think we can do better against the falcons and saints than their relative records imply. even the panthers – many superbowl losers have struggled the following year, and the panthers just seemed really fortunate at times last year in general.

  16. 813bucboi Says:

    I agree with kevin….GO BUCS!!!

  17. Aaron Says:

    Makes sense to me – remember in our hey day when the draft was boring because we were two deep (at least on defense)…making the team was a long shot at best. We now are going into this draft looking for rookie starters at multiple positions. We’ll get there – just takes a little time.

  18. Buccfan37 Says:

    I haven’t been able to post lately. I’m trying to see if this will come up. This phone changed somehow, now when I click on read more I get the save or open spot. It’s making me mad.

  19. Fsuking Says:

    I thought for sure I was gonna clean up on my over 6 wins bet last year. But I didn’t lose so I’m doubling down this year. 6 1/2 wins is foolishly low. I take them at over 8 1/2 if the at 2-1 odds

  20. Fsuking Says:

    I’m having typing problems too. This website is always tough for me to type on with my Ipad

  21. Pickgrin Says:

    It will be very interesting to see how the 2016 season shakes out for the Bucs.

    I think we all expect improvement – especially in the # of wins – but unfortunately, Vegas is right a lot more often than they are wrong when it comes to such predictions.

  22. Buccfan37 Says:

    I am confident the Bucs will go over the Vegas win total, if I was there I would bet that for sure.

  23. Bucsfanman Says:

    The schedule is relative. There’s no way you can predict injuries or player’s futures. There’s only one way to rectify standing in this league……JUST WIN BABY!!!

  24. salish_seamonster Says:

    The opinions of oddsmakers are irrelevant, and they’re prejudiced by the past. Did anybody expect them to think much of the Bucs? Non-story.

  25. Stanglassman Says:

    I think it’s worth keeping in mind that the line is not set to predict the outcome it’s set to predict the mid point for betting. Their only goal is to get half the money on one side and the other. Therefore experts in Vegas can believe the Bucs are a 8-9 win team but knows the public will think of them as more of a 5-6 win team. I think the smart money (early bets) will bare this out.

  26. Buc1987 Says:

    Upset special?

  27. Sumo Says:

    These Vegas guys are usually pretty darn close. I would guess we will be right there at 6-7 wins. How sad is that.

  28. Stanglassman Says:

    Team 2015 Season Win Total Lines/Actual outcome
    Arizona Cardinals 8.5 / 13
    Atlanta Falcons 8.5 / 8
    Baltimore Ravens 9/ 5
    Buffalo Bills 8.5 / 8
    Carolina Panthers 8.5 / 15
    Chicago Bears 6.5 / 6
    Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 / 12
    Cleveland Browns 6.5 / 3
    Dallas Cowboys 9.5 / 4
    Denver Broncos 10 / 12
    Detroit Lions 8.5 / 7
    Green Bay Packers 11 / 10
    Houston Texans 8.5 / 9
    Indianapolis Colts 10.5 / 8
    Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5 / 5
    Kansas City Chiefs 8.5 / 11
    Miami Dolphins 9/ 6
    Minnesota Vikings 8 / 11
    New England Patriots 10.5 / 12
    New Orleans Saints 9 / 7
    New York Giants 8 /6
    New York Jets 7.5 / 10
    Oakland Raiders 5.5 / 7
    Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 / 7
    Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 / 10
    San Diego Chargers 8 / 4
    San Francisco 49ers 6.5 /
    Seattle Seahawks 11 / 10
    St. Louis Rams 8 / 7
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 / 6
    Tennessee Titans 5.5 / 3
    Washington Redskins 6 / 9

  29. SoFloBucs Says:

    I’ll take the over, I don’t think that too big of a stretch.

  30. feelthepewterpower Says:

    The schedule is tougher on paper but rosters turnover every year and some teams get stronger from 2015. Hopefully that’s the case with the Buccs.