BSPN Prediction: Martin Will Sign

February 13th, 2016
Bold prediction from the four-letter.

Bold prediction from the four-letter.

Bucs fans had the shivers as the weekend neared when they learned everyone’s favorite Muscle Hamster, Doug Martin, very well may test free agency.

The Bucs want him back, with the right deal. Martin wants to come back, but wants a payday, too.

It is based on these two premises that Mike DiRocco of BSPN believes Martin will, in fact, be back with the Bucs in 2016.

Running back Doug Martin isn’t going anywhere. He resurrected his career in 2015 by finishing second in rushing (1,402 yards) and is scheduled to become a free agent. Both sides expressed interest in him returning, and the Bucs will work out a deal (likely in the $20 million-$25 million range) to keep him.

Here is the thing about Martin: After the 2017 season, he turns 29. NFL history is well-documented how badly running backs fall off the map in their late 20s or when they hit the magic age of 30 (those not named “Adrian Peterson”).

If the Bucs do indeed sign Martin to more than a two-year deal, you can bet that deal will be significantly front-loaded with the guaranteed money in the first two years.

That’s why a franchise tag is not as sinister as some would have you believe. It’s another one-year, prove-it contract. If it doesn’t work out, you wash your hands immediately and move on.

24 Responses to “BSPN Prediction: Martin Will Sign”

  1. LJ'sDaddy Says:

    Gotta have the Dougernaut! Give him a break with the Muscle Hamster stuff Joe. You know he hates that moniker.

  2. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    I’d take my chances with a three year $24 mil deal with the first two guaranteed……

  3. Rob Says:

    Will you stop with the franchise tag garbage. No one’s paying an injury prone RB that kind of money. You need to sober up when you’re writing these posts.

  4. BucTrooper Says:

    Voiding that fifth year is looking pretty dumb right now.

  5. Dave Says:

    It is definitely a possibility because the Bucs have a ton of cap space.
    They will probably sign him to a 4 year deal though, his 4 prime years.

  6. Danati74 Says:

    Ya these guys were talking about dangling a carrot in front of him this past year. Well he produced, now it’s time to pay him. Simple as that.

  7. OneBuc55 Says:

    Honestly, I’d like to see what Charles Sims can do in a full-time role; Sims has a rare skill set that may fit the offense a little better…especially if we plan on being in the shotgun more often under Koetter…That said, I like Doug Martin a lot; he’s solid, not special though Imho…in today’s NFL you don’t give RB’s huge paydays…as Joe said, Martin is approaching that infamous age of 30 when RB’s tend to decline drastically…there are exceptions to the rule; Adrian Peterson and Tiki Barber immediately come to mind…I trust Licht to do what’s best for the team; if we can find middle ground with Martin then I’m all for bringing him back for 2 or 3 more years…

  8. Dylan Says:

    “After the 2017 season” bro that’s 2 full years. sign doug martin to a 4 year contract, nothing more, simple as that. Then his final year of his contract he will be 30 turning 31 in the post season. Doug martin is 27 and just turned 27 on january 13th 2016. Lets not make this confusing lol. Math = BFFL.

  9. biff barker Says:

    No issues whatsoever with the Bucs not taking the 5th year option. After 2 straight injury laden seasons most armchair GM’s here would have done the same.

    So Doug puts up a stellar season in a contract year. Rookie laden OL and QB. Good for him, great for us.

    I’ve said all along. Put a fair 3 year, incentive laden, front end loaded contract on the table. I’d take a late round flyer on a RB too.

    For all those thinking many RB’s are plug and play, your optimism is both admirable and altruistic. A healthy Martin is a serious asset to this offense.

  10. Buccfan37 Says:

    Martin with improved offensive line blocking and strengthened compact size finds holes and sheds tackles in his initial burst. I like his style and effectiveness. I think he comes close to repeating last years performance if he stays.

  11. biff barker Says:

    No to the $11M tag. Just no.

  12. Buccfan37 Says:

    Muscle Hamster, man that’s a winner of a nickname. It’s not going anywhere and I support the use of it regardless of fans or the Muscle Hamster’s objections.

  13. macabee Says:

    TBBF is probably close to the number (6.0mil to 6.5mil) that Doug will get. I too think he will eventually sign. The Bucs have essentially said they will not use the franchise tag as an alternative (see reports by Rick Stroud and Pewter Report).

    I personally think the Bucs should stand pat on their offer pre-free agency to Martin. They have too many viable options. Matt Forte has all but said he is willing to sign for about 4mil albeit with a playoff team and RB coach Tim Spencer was his coach at the Bears. Lamar Miller is a 900 yard RB that once in the open is not likely to be caught from behind and both are excellent receivers out of the backfield.

    Either of those could be a nice fill in for one year until 2017 when RBs Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette enter the draft. There are also options in the 3rd round in the 2016 Draft like Alex Collins/Ark, Jordan Howard/IU, and Kenyan Drake/Bama.

    Again, I think Doug is going to sign with the Bucs because he really wants to be here, but if not I’m not at all worried because the Bucs have good options!

  14. Willy D Buc Says:

    I’d like to see y’all call him by his old nickname to his face.

  15. R.O. Says:

    It will be a 4 year deal with the first 2 years guaranteed.. .. Joe you know how the Bucs structure contracts. Little to no signing bonus and the first 2 or 3 years guarenteed based on length of the deal.

  16. BigHogHaynes Says:

    PAY THE MAN!: ps Sims can’t hold Martian’s jock-strap!

  17. Pickgrin Says:

    4 years – $25M – $12M guaranteed (all $5M of 2016 and $2M of 2017) + a $5M signing bonus as a thank you for a great 2015.

    Doug gets his $10M this year – Bucs get the option of 4 years of Doug’s services with low penalty for cutting him after 2017.

    How many times do I have to say that paying $11.8M (guaranteed) for ONE year (half of a 4 year deal and all of the guaranteed $) is a BAD idea???

    Get with it Joe – Martin is not getting franchised unless he plays hard ball and its unlikely even then.


  18. Buc1987 Says:

    I’ve been for tagging him for the past 3 months.

  19. IdahoBucsfan Says:

    I Like the tag “Muscle-Hamster”!

  20. feelthepewterpower Says:

    BucTrooper Says:
    February 13th, 2016 at 8:27 am
    Voiding that fifth year is looking pretty dumb right now.

    Yeah, said that at the time…the whole point of the move up to the first round as a) to grab him and b) get a 5th year. it was silly with all that cap room and knowing he was injured and playing behind a crappy line not to give him the extended year….but that has been the front office for the last ten years….rash, non-critical thinking moves.

  21. godzilla13 Says:

    Doug Martin is going to be allowed to test the FA market? Kiss him good bye. No one knows exactly what he is asking but you can bet your house it will be no less than what the average is for the top 10 RB right now? $8,000,000 a year, 4 years. Licht is not going to tie that kind of money up for four years. Its OK we pay a 33 year old receiver who made 33 receptions $9,700,000 and a soon to be 34 year old guard $7,000,000 and a second string CB $6,700,000 but not PAY the second leading RB in the NFL and best player on this team $8,000,000. What would you do?

  22. BuccaneerBonzai Says:

    So…let’s say the Bucs sign a deal, and guarantee what? 2-3 years on a 4 year deal?

    And then…because he has done this exactly half the years he has played in the NFL, he gets injured this year.

    Not such smart spending then, was it?

    If they want to give him a deal, do it. Just make it heavy with incentives and milestones. TDs. Yards (1000, 1400, 1800). Games played. Weight and conditioning. Games started.

    Do that and he isn’t overpaid if things don’t work out. In return, give him a good signing bonus and a no trade clause.

    Done deal.

  23. BuccaneerBonzai Says:

    They were right not to do the 5th year. Why do you think he ended up getting his act together???? He wanted to get paid.

    Which is why I say buyer beware…buy…but be smart about it.

    Oh wait…it’s Jason Licht….

  24. Hell Hound Says:

    Doug! Doug!! Doug!!! Bypass your agent and stay in Tampa.
    Kotter helped MJD get a rushing title in JAX. You’ll get one here next season if ya’ stick around.