Lofty Rookie Expectations

June 30th, 2015
Big rookie numbers expected. Photo courtesy of

Record-breaking numbers expected. Photo courtesy of

Generally — not absolutely, but generally — rookie quarterbacks struggle.

There’s a severe learning curve coming from college to the NFL. It can be transitioning from spread-option to pro-style; but it’s often because rookie quarterbacks find themselves on garbage teams.

That’s why in the short term, Joe isn’t expecting a whole lot from “America’s Quarterback,” Bucs signal-caller Jameis Winston. Oh, an upgrade from turnover-prone Josh McClown is a given. A corpse could play better.

But Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders is not thinking like Joe. Kacsmar believes Jameis not only will have a good year, but should break an NFL passing record for a 21-year old.

Kacsmar is referring to a graphic he dug up that shows the most passing yards thrown by a quarterback at a specific age. Drew Bledsoe threw for just under 2,500 yards at 21 years old (note: this was under ground-and-pound Tuna Parcells).

Joe is going to guess Kacsmar expects Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson to have seasons similar to last year, that tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins stays healthy, and that the Bucs running attack will continue to stink, which will force young Jameis to launch the ball early and often.

If all of the above happens, then yeah, Joe can see Jameis pushing Bledsoe’s mark.

yards passing by age

15 Responses to “Lofty Rookie Expectations”

  1. Buccfan305 Says:

    Im very confused…is this chart in dog years??

  2. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    It’s a good idea to lower expectations for Jameis a bit…..he will be a rookie on the NFL’s worst offense…..but, the good news is that there is nowhere to go but up!!!

  3. Buc-A-New Says:

    I don’t believe we are anywhere near the NFL’s “worst offense”. I squarely believe that OL is 90% of our worries. If it is average we will kick ass.

  4. Nick Says:

    Last year 2,494 yards would put you between Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick. 26th highest total in the league. I’m betting the over.

  5. Nick Says:

    NTM, Carr, Bortles and Bridgewater all easily surpassed this total.

  6. Couch Fan Says:

    Im predicting Winston to not only smash that rookie record but all Buc QB rookie records.

  7. Couch Fan Says:

    After all, Glennon broke those same records and according to most here he is awful right? Lol. Should be no problem for Winston.

  8. Nick Says:

    Josh Freeman set team records for yards and TDs in a season with 4,065 and 27. Jameis should have those numbers on a poster over his bed. Lofty but attainable.

  9. Fsuking Says:

    It is foolish to think we are the NFL’s worsf offense. We were only 3rd worst with no offensive coordinator and McClown under a below average center who was struggling with a name crisis.

  10. Buc1987 Says:

    2500 huh? Easy pleasey!

  11. ak427er Says:

    2500 is nothing. 4000 is the benchmark of good veteran qbs in today’s nfl. thats 250 a game. c’mon man. my guess is jameis will have 3800 24td, 18int.

  12. ToesOnTheLine! Says:

    I’ll can see the potential for the 3,800 yards, but switch it to 18 TD’s and 24 INT’s for Winston. Veteren DB’s will most likely try to confuse and bait the rookie “gunslinger” into over confident throws into windows not really there.

  13. Stpetebucsfan Says:

    This offense boils down to one element…the OL. We now have a professional OC. We have a “franchise QB”. We have a decent group of running backs with the possibility of some real explosiveness. And when you put VJAX and ME with ASJ and now Wright…Murphy…one of the rooks?. We are talented and deep when it comes to targets for Fameis. IF we can just block.

    We have to hope that our three vets turn in close to career years or at least play as well as their talent permits, and then hope that the talent advantage helps our rookies overcome their lack of experience. If the five guys can meld together as a unit and become simply competent, not great, with Koetter…Fameis and all the weapons this offense could really rock.

  14. Tampa Tony Says:

    As long as he’s better than Mariotta I’ll be happy

  15. LakelandBuc Says:

    Jameis should pass for 3,750 YDS in a pass happy Dirk Koetter offense with Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, ASJ and Doug Martin, Charles Sims, Dominque Brown catching screen passes. And then you have Brandon Myers, Timmy Wright, Louis Murphy. Man oh man Young Jameis gonna break records this season.