History Says Don’t Draft QB On Day 3

May 5th, 2014
Joe thought drafting Aaron Murray on the third day would be smart for the Bucs. One NFL GM says history shows that would be a waste of a draft pick.

Joe thinks drafting Aaron Murray on Day 3 would be smart for the Bucs. History says that’s a waste, says one NFL GM.

Joe has written the following so many times, regular readers could quote it verbatim: The Bucs will draft a quarterback at some point this weekend, whether it is Johnny Football at No. 7, Derek Carr in the second round, Jimmy Garoppolo in the third round or Aaron Murray on the third day.

But if Bears general manager Phil Emery had any sway with Jason Licht, he would advise him to forget drafting a signal-caller on Day 3. Why? Emery, per his research, said drafting QBs after the third round is a waste of a pick, documented Jeff Dickerson of BSPN Chicago.

“I just did a little study. It’s very interesting,” Emery said. “That developmental theory doesn’t hold a whole lot of water. There’s entire classes of quarterbacks, since ’06, I went back and looked at from Jay’s on — when people say developmental quarterbacks, OK, so who has gotten developed? There isn’t a single quarterback after the third round since 2006 that has been a long-term starter. So you’re either developing thirds, and most of them have been wiped out of the league. So to get a quality quarterback, you’ve got to draft them high. That 2012 class is a blip on the radar that’s unusual, highly unusual.

“Most of the starters in this league come from the first and second round. So that’s where you need to take a quarterback. So when you talk about quarterback every year, they have to be somebody that you truly believe will beat out the second and third quarterback that you perceive on your roster. And if not, history shows that you shouldn’t make that pick.”

Now Joe just knows — JUST KNOWS! — that someone, before finishing this article, is going to type, “… but, but, but Tom Brady… ”

Again, per Emery, not since 2006 has any quarterback drafted in the fourth round or lower become a reliable starter. And the 2012 draft Emery referred to as a “blip?” That would be when Russell Wilson and Nick Foles were drafted in the third round.

So Emery makes an interesting point that Bucs fans can monitor. If the Bucs believe in a quarterback, they better get him early.

Apparently, finding a starting quarterback on the third day of the draft holds about the same odds as winning a Super Bowl with a garbage quarterback.

23 Responses to “History Says Don’t Draft QB On Day 3”

  1. Snook Says:

    Saw this on PFT. Thanks for posting though, Joe.

    Emery is exactly right.

    Getting a franchise QB in later rounds is the EXCEPTION. Not the rule.

    Seattle certainly didn’t plan on Wilson being the QB he’s turned out to be or they would’ve taken him earlier. They had him graded as a 3rd rounder.

    Banking on the idea of getting a franchise QB even in the 2nd round is idiotic, in my opinion.

  2. Danati74 Says:

    I will gladly take. J.Football, D.Carr, or Jimmy G. in the 1st or 2nd 😀

  3. bucrightoff Says:

    History says the vast majority of NFL drafts weren’t 3 days…

  4. Mark Says:

    Last week for Joe to PUSH JOHNNY.

    I’m wondering what he will post after the draft………

    If it’s not JOHNNY, Joe might need the nearest liquor store.

  5. BucsQcCity Says:

    Manziel, Bridgewater or Carr. Nothing else

  6. Jeagan1999 Says:

    It’ true, the rate of late round (4th round pick or later)QB’s becoming quality starters in the NFL is pretty low…let’s face it, there have only been a few Tom Brady’s or Joe Montana’s that have defied that trend. But that doesn’t mean that you have to spend a top 10 choice for a good QB either! There have been lots of top 10 washouts…and several great QB’ s taken late in round 1′ round 2 and even round 3. Now as for Aaron Murray specifically, the ONLY reason he is likely to drop into round 3 or 4 was because of the injury he suffered at the end of his career at Georgia. But according to everything I’ve heard and seen, he seems to be suffering NO ill effects from the surgery to repair his ACL and he should be healthy and ready for the start of camp! Had it not been for the injury, we would be talking about Murray being a late first round or early second round selection, just based on his production at Georgia where he set many SEC passing and scoring records!

  7. Oil Derrick Brooks Says:

    “Getting a franchise QB in later rounds is the EXCEPTION. Not the rule.”

    Same goes for midget QBs.

  8. passthebuc Says:

    There is always value in later rounds. Problem is most teams do not do enough due diligence. Most throw mud against the wall and hope it sticks.

  9. Nate Says:

    Aaron Murray would be over the bortles and bridgewater if he didnt tear his ACL….this guy is the ALL-TIME SEC PASSER!!!! again SEC!!!!….

    my draft thinking :

    you can either be REALLY STRONG with Arron Donald and Mccoy or passer/ receiver STRONG with johnny or murray …if they go with evans….

    dont be surprised if they go with donald ..if hes proj @ 10 but hes #1 on ur list as they can have a #1 def if he plays brian price’s old spot NT….

    Donald is viewed as seen …UNBLOCKABLE …..the last short guy with that speed WAS SAPP……you take him who cares mccoy is good but diff player than sapp….

  10. Ra'Shad Says:

    If not for the injury to Murray he would go no later than the second rd. But that is my opinion.

  11. Nate Says:

    @ MARK

    if not johnny which qb are u hoping for …..i think ill need a drink if we dont get a projected QB 2nd 3rd at least cause guess what ……

    the manning (peyton only) , luck only comes around once every 10 years and im not siiting thru another 4 win season just to get a chance at one

  12. Couch Fan Says:

    So in other words. Glennon still has a chance!! Winnin’ with Glennon!!

  13. Nate Says:

    @ RASHAD

    Thats an opinion but a right one…the alltime sec leader ever would go in at least the 2nd….this guy has brees written all over him…..

    bucs give him a evans like the (a.j green he had in college ) and watch what he does…… if you cant get johnny….im really liking donald playing the nose though….we would have the #1 D!!!!

  14. Nate Says:

    GLENNON WAS A GRADED 4TH ROUND PICK….TAKEN EARLY BY HIS #1 FAN SCHIANO LOL …..mike mayock said he was a 4thround guy at BEST

    yall glennon fans never gave SIMMS all this love…all he did was give you your last playoff appearance and a spleen for jiminey f_-ing christm(gruden voice )…lol


  15. Eric Says:

    Our QB Guru can’t possibly like Glennon.

    I imagine Lovie gets indigestion at the mere thought of relying on the guy.

    Murray is a project, we need elite.

  16. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    I agree with emery.

    Ironically, this says a lot about Mike Glennon as well. It supports the claim that Glennon wasn’t drafted to be a starter, but a backup.

    I prefer Carr at 7. It isn’t reaching if he is successful as a starter.

  17. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    Nate Says
    “…yall glennon fans never gave SIMMS all this love…”

    Not true. Chris Simms was very liked in Tampa until the end of his time here.

    But, really, Simms is the perfect example of how Tampa fans are willing to waste time with a career backup. (Simms/Glennon/etc)

  18. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    passthebuc Says
    “There is always value in later rounds. Problem is most teams do not do enough due diligence. Most throw mud against the wall and hope it sticks.”

    I agree with this statement.

    Ironically, there are three positions that usually show up more in the later rounds…OL, WR and RB.

    In fact, most starting OL are found in round 3 or later.

  19. Mark Says:

    @ Nate

    I’m not pushing anyone, just waiting to see what will happen.
    Fans don’t pick………period.

    So far L&L have not called me for advise, have they called you?

    I’m just saying Joe will be disappointed if Johnny goes marching somewhere else.

  20. Zach Says:

    I don’t get the love with Aaron Murray, but then again I’m not from the area to have a homegrown attachment to him. I’m from the Midwest and no one I heard here talk about him as a great QB, maybe good but not great. I get that he put up stats in college, but if those stats matter then Colt Brennan would have turned into a great NFL QB. I think we need to take our QB of the future in the first two rounds of this draft, especially if we don’t plan on picking near the top of the draft for the foreseeable future.

  21. Nate Says:

    @ ZACK

    no OVERWELMING love for murray but we need ELITE all day but thats not the only recipe for the superbowl..our only one and last years proves that.

    he can be very good never said great in the right system…colt brenan was never in th SEC where the top 10 of your elite talent is full of…..

    all im saying is IF you go WR/NT(donald) and draft him you have your spread mobile qb with a a.j green like wideout ….and the best D in the league…..QBs wont be even be able to breath if that happens

  22. Jim Says:

    Its about the player, not the 3rd day of the draft.

  23. Kevin Says:

    JF is going to Jacksonville.