Josh Freeman Is “Overvalued”

March 5th, 2013

josh freeman 1115

Well, “The Stat Society” is at it again. The numbers crunchers at Pro Football Focus fired up their spreadsheets and recently offered a list of “overvalued” and “undervalued” players broken down by team.

One really jumped off the page. The Pro Football Focus gang listed the 10 most “overvalued” quarterbacks in the NFL and Bucs starting quarterback Josh Freeman is among them, types film junkie Khaled Elsayed.

7. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2012 Cap Hit: $8.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $4.4m
Value Differential: -$4.2m

You see why the Bucs aren’t exactly endorsing Josh Freeman as their long-term option at quarterback. When they needed him to step up and carry the team he just couldn’t get the job done and his performance in the second half of the season was alarming to say the least, throwing 12 picks in the final seven games. With a weapon like Vincent Jackson, he really doesn’t have any excuses for not doing more.

Other quarterbacks on that list include Michael Vick, Philip Rivers, Kevin Kolb, Mark Sanchez and Matt Cassel.

The lukewarm patting on the back of Freeman just after the season by Greg Schiano, and his delayed mea culpa some two months later, surely tells Joe that Freeman’s make or break year is this season.

Yeah, he could return as Joe suspects. But if Freeman has another uneven, unclutch year, the Bucs are not going to break the bank for him.

Joe also suspects Bucs rock star general manager Mark Dominik will get more toys for Freeman in the coming weeks. With more toys, a second year in Mike Sullivan’s offense, and a healthy front line, it will all be set up for Freeman to shine.

55 Responses to “Josh Freeman Is “Overvalued””

  1. Tbuc Says:

    The Bucs secondary is def not overvalued, thanks Dom.

  2. Tbuc Says:

    Maybe with a secondary that can stop teams, Freeman doesn’t feel the need to score on every drive and doesn’t for force throws.

  3. Paul Says:

    Gary Shelton thinks Freeman will get like 13mil in his last article…

  4. @MikeInTampa2 Says:

    If #5 stays with us for the next 10 years, he’ll have Warren Moon-like numbers. That’s good enuff for me. Plus he should improve as long as The Rock Star continues to build around him. Freeman is the least of our problems.

  5. Paul Says:

    “The Bucs secondary is def not overvalued, thanks Dom”

    I like how the media viewed Talib as a bad DB when he was on the Bucs, but the min he goes to the Pats, he’s a superstar top FA.

  6. @MikeInTampa2 Says:

    @Paul…..agree re: Talib….and i think Gary Shelton was right $13 Milli

  7. 4everBucsFan Says:

    yeah 13 mil sounds about right

  8. BrianDorry55 Says:

    $13 million? If the kid goes 5 seasons without making the playoffs, there is no way in hell you pay him $13 million…or anything for that matter. If the Bucs are not a playoff team in 2013, Freeman is gone…I don’t care if he’ll take $5 million a year. If he doesn’t find a way to do it after five season then he’s a loser.

  9. Bobby C Says:

    you guys kill me, again a film expert breaks down joshs game and shows prove that he not all that. WHEN WE NEEDED JOSH THE MOST HE FOLDED LIKE A CHEAP SUIT, ACTED LIKE A 5 OLD WITH HIS TEMPER TANDRUMS, AND LOOKED CONFUSED AND OUT OF PLACE. Wake up people, what other toys does he need, yes the defense sucked, but so did josh, just wish tampa would finally see that. Could it be worse, off course, but the point being is that josh has all the talent in the world, but he can not connect the dots, thats what kills us as fans. Trust me sitting in the stands, i am not in the minority, those boo birds were getting louder by the end.

  10. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    Like it or not, Tampa is committed to Freeman, at least for this next year.

  11. PRBucFan Says:

    Like it or the excuses are up

    It’s now or never.

  12. Walter Says:

    @Bobby C Temper Tantrums? I think you have Freeman confused with the other 6’6″ 240lb QB in Carolina, Scam Newton. Freeman does not throw “temper tantrums”, so get out of here with all of that nonsense. Why don’t you WAKE UP and realize that Josh Freeman has put up better numbers than any other QB in our teams entire history. You wanna complain about 27tds and 4,000 yards in a single season? Really? Thats the weakness of our team? If we switched Freeman for another QB, lets say…….. Andy Dalton, do you think we make the playoffs? I sure as hell don’t. Flacco? Nah, we wouldn’t have made the playoffs with Flacco, hell, not even with Manning or Brady would we have made the playoffs. Our defense was THAT bad last year. Fix the Secondary, that’s our biggest hole. Maybe a slot WR or a pass catching TE, but other than that, the offense is fine the way it is. We need cornerbacks and a new FS, because it is in fact a passing league now, and having the worst secondary in the NFL is about the worst thing that you can have as a team.

  13. milbro4 Says:

    All talk about Josh Freeman play and how much he should be pay have we learn from Doug Williams left and won a Super Bowl

  14. Sneedy16 Says:

    It gets funny. I can understand the frustration, but unless they can find anything better in free agency or the draft this year the Bucs are stuck with him. Ranting about Josh will not change the fact that he is the start QB for the Bucs this year.

    Complaining the whole off season will not about the guy will not change anything. You might as well root for the guy at least for now since he is the starting QB for your team (for now), because if he booms it will be another rebuilding process with a new GM, QB, and probably Head Coach. Lets see how many years that will take.

  15. tmaxcon Says:

    I am pulling for Freeman. His inconsistency has cost me a couple of remotes but he is ONLY 24 and has a life long Buc fan we have never had a QB with his skills. I’d like to see Schiano and Sullivan let Josh run a little more. 5 seems to get his head in the qame quicker once he takes a good hit. Since there is a stat for everything, I’d be interested to know what 5’s completion percentage is on roll outs. Also how many int’s he has rolling out.

  16. Sneedy16 Says:

    “will not about the guy will not” – “will not” , “booms” -“bombs” (writing on a phone sucks)

  17. SteveK Says:


    Maybe it would be nice to have a QB in today’s NFL that can consistently make all of the throws.

    Two sides to your coin, buddy. 🙂

  18. Tbuc Says:

    Love to see what Flacco, Ryan, R2D2, And the other golden boy QB’s do with a defense that can’t stop a rookie 3rd rounder from lighting the defense up like Xmas.

    QB’s dont make the playoffs, good teams do. Truth is Dom has not built a playoff caliber roster. This will be year 5 of the Dominik rebuilding project, how much longer until the rebuilding is over?

  19. SteveK Says:


    Right on cue with the remote chucking, I am guilty of that as well.

    Josh just needs to get his win percentage back on track. I can care less about his incosistencies etc. so long as he can overcome them to consistently win.

    If Freeman proves to be “unclutch or uneven”, as Joe puts it, then he will get a minimal offer.

  20. Tbuc Says:

    @SteveK, of course that’s what makes football a team game. Bucs don’t have a complete team to compliment a top 15-20 QB. There’s maybe 5-6 QB’s who can win by themselves in this league, freeman isn’t one, neither are the last 2 super bowl winning QB’s.

  21. SteveK Says:


    You are silly, man.

    RG3 and Andrew Luck all had Defenses that were worse than the Bucs.

    RG3 won the NFC East, remeber how badly we looked (Josh Freeman looked in clutch time) against Dallas and the Giants… We should have won the Giants game if the Offense did ANYTHING in the 2nd half.

    Our ex GM, Bruce Allen, has turned around the Redskins pretty darn quickly. I liken Freeman’s inconsistencies as a limit to our “team” (postseason) success.

  22. SteveK Says:

    We can’t continually cop out our Secondary as an excuse for Freeman’s inconsistent play.

    Our secondary is brutal.

    Josh Freeman is too darn inconsistent.

    Both must change.

    Solid QB play would have the greatest impact on out team.

  23. SteveK Says:


    So, the “Top 12 Teams” at season’s end make the playoffs.

    Combined: we need to have a Top 12 Team.

    If Freeman is the 17-19th best QB out there, then how much will the secondary need to pick up the slack.

    It is a lot harder to justify purging our secondary, replacing multiple positions, when our QB is never going to be better than 15th ranked at his position. Why settle for mediocrity?

  24. Vern4499 Says:


    You are a silly man to put the Giants loss in Freeman. Do you remember the 500+ passing yards? The defense gave that up not #5. The Bucs had a 14 point lead in that game. Blame the right people. Also to say Allen has built a team in DC is silly too. He is a cap manager as GM in DC. Shanahan chooses the players not Allen. The Redskins defense played much better down the stretch last year. Did Josh have that same luxury?

  25. Gill Says:

    Lets make no mistakes the stats of “the new and improve” Josh Freeman weren’t as bad as what we cringed from a couple of years ago but we are still in the same position….No playoffs!! Do I think Josh Freeman has an upside yes, but h#ll every quarterback has an upside, its show and prove for Michael Jackson this year. Bottom Line the inability to convert first downs directly reflect with our poor secondary play! Less time offense works=more time Defense gets torched

  26. Buc Fan #238 Says:

    No Steve… it’s harder to justify getting rid of a veteren QB who has 4 years of experience… a guy who just broke all of the Buccaneer QB records. He’s 25 too. Oh he also has all the physical skills.

  27. Tbuc Says:

    @SteveK, I agree Freeman is inconsistent. I’m just not of the mindset he’s the teams biggest problem. Bucs defense blew leads against the Giants, Saints and Eagles. Colts had the 21st ranked pass defense to help Luck out give that to the Bucs and they are possibly in the playoffs. We all saw what happens when a team gets hot in the postseason like the Ravens did. Just get in and you have a chance.

  28. SteveK Says:

    Buc Fan #238,

    Freeman looks like a QB, LOOKS like one.

    Freeman set mediocre Franchise Records this year, whoopdy doo! Did he take us to the playoffs?

    Has Freeman done anything good since 2010? Did Freeman peak in 2010?

    Freeman has had 55 starts, and is still unable to establish consistency, or show any signes of substantial improvement.

    It is what it is, Freeman is here for this year and that is it. Bring me a guy that can simply: make a read, protect the ball, and consistently throw. We don’t need John Elway, Tom Brady, or any other Elite QB. We need a consistent QB.

  29. Vern4499 Says:


    Don’t forget the lead They had against the Skins with less than 2 minutes left!!!

  30. SteveK Says:


    You are right, our secondary was horrid, but atleast they were consistent.

    I worry more about our QB position, bc th QB is the driving force of the Football team. Consistency is a must at the QB position.

    Freeman had times where he looked like a pro bowler, and followed up by looking completely mentally checked out.

    Freeman needs to show more. No way around it. The QB position is the life blood of your team. No QB, no winning.

  31. Capt. Tim Says:

    Bucfan#238- great stuff. So sick of these other simpletons.
    You are absolutely right. I’m watching both games we played against the Falcons. Freeman is the man. Only issues on offense, is you can tell they aren’t always on same page. No uncommon for an offense in a new system.

    Joe prints an article written by some bed wetter, living in his mom’s basement- and a Third of the posters here wanna turn on one of most talented players.

    I think it’s so clueless, that its funny. I bet Joe does, Too!

    All you Freeman hating geniuses name who you want to QB here, instead of Freeman

    And if one of you says Gino Smith- I’m gonna lobby to revoke your posting privledges!!

    Freeman is superior to anyone in this Draft. He’s superior to any Free agent available. He’s a very good QB, with a sky high ceiling. He needs some stability at Offensive coordinator- and a defense.

    What I don’t know, is if he’s Shiano’s type of QB. I’ve heard they are butting heads. If so- that’s a problem that Shiano better fix.this ain’t Rutgers. Talented QBs are far more valuable than Coaches

    Just ask The Cardinals, Browns, Raiders, and dozen other teams looking for Qbs

  32. Buc Fan #238 Says:

    Steve would rather dump the only QB we have rather than sign 2 additional CBs.

    Yeah, that makes sense.

  33. Vic66 Says:

    @Capt Tim; great post filled with ad homone

  34. Vic66 Says:

    Sorry about that, tried to spell check and it posted…

    Please allow me to try again.

  35. Vic66 Says:

    @ Capt Tim; great post filled with ad hominem attacks with those whom you disagree. There is no reason for us to stoop to the level of sleazy politicians. Unfortunately I too have been guilty in the past.

    The problem and discussion topic is ,”is Freeman overvalued?”. In my opinion, the question is not value but consistency. He can play great at times, other times like sh%#! Not to mention a quarterback that would let a photo shoot distract him when his teammates were counting on him to lead them to the playoffs. Instead , they went into a death spiral.

    All I ask is that the front office not let themselves get hurried into a deal too soon. Let this season play out and see if he gets his act together. If he can….Pay the man, if not, let him moon walk into the sunset.

  36. Capt. Tim Says:

    Vic66- I think some of the greatest opinions and wisdom about this team, have been expressed by Buc legend, John Lynch

    In the last game of the Season, Lynch described Freeman as” Everything you want and look for in a Franchise Quarterback”

    He also said that he felt the team had ” ran out of gas” during the losing streak. And that he felt this was in part do to ” demanding coach, with demanding workouts”

    I understand Shiano working the team hard- after the previous years total lack of discipline. Makes sense

    Understand the offense making mistakes, as they are in a new system, with a first time co-ordinators.

    What I don’t understand, is how some “people” will give credence to any idiot that types a negative post about this team.

    Don’t you guys actually watch the games? If you did, you wouldn’t believe everything some clueless idiot writes.

    For half this season, the Bucs offense was the hottest offense in the league. Other teams eventually caught on, and we were slow to evolve the offense.

    That isn’t Freeman’s job, or fault. That was Sullivan’s job

    Sullivan is going to be a great co-ordinator( Coach), but like many- he’s learning on the job.

    Freeman has an incredible skill set.

    I trust Lynch’s opinion, and Tim Ryan’s- more than any of these other meatballs

  37. SilenceTheCritics Says:

    Captain Name Caller to the rescue…. Freeman is still a loser until he proves otherwise. Now continue with your ranting of how smarter you are than the rest of us. 😀

    Oh and btw 8.5 million for a QB that shows up for half a game and can only beat bad teams is extremely over vauled so I agree with this article.

  38. Capt. Tim Says:

    Youcantsilenceyercritics- your continued whining, without point or logic, only continue to convince me that you, are in fact, A chick.

  39. White Tiger Says:

    Single year valuation of any QB is worthless – unless of course you’re trying to negotiate a bargain while trying to re-sign your gunslinger.

    P.S. the other QB’s on the “list” are examples of your alternatives for “competition”.

    At the very least, re-signing Freeman now gets you an automatic home-town discount.

    Let me see a set if stats for Freeman over the duration of his pro career – then lets do some comparisons.

    By the way – anyone claiming that our offensive line has been complete, and played at an exceptional level over this same duration – need their collective heads examined.

    This is just more contract posturing, next will be one that shows Freeman is better than his stats imply – furnished by Freeman’s new agent, wrapped-up to look like another well mannered “blogger” offering a fresh take on the deeper meaning of “stats”.

    Brooks is right – you cant believe anything you hear this time of year.

  40. Buc Fan #238 Says:

    I’m with Capt Tim.

    We all have to tolerate Free until he is replaced.

    If any of you yahoos have been following the Buccaneers, oh I don’t know, since 1976, you would UNDERSTAND how hard it is to aquire a franchise QB. Franchise QBs don’t even make it to free agency. Top 10 QB draft picks don’t always pan out as franchise QBs.

    We have already endured 4 years of a young QB… before that, we had patch work vets mixed with lowly 3rd teir young QBs… before that we had Brad Johnson… he’s not in the NFL anymore… before that Dilfer, Testeverde, Young, DeBerg et al.

    The QB we have today is by far better than any rookie in the draft and better than any free agent that will hit the market.

    Crying about Free is a waste of time. And I surely would hate to start over with a rookie again… not in the mood for that. We need a few years of veteran QB play from Free to see what happens. And this what we will get. Free is JUST good enough to keep around and JUST bad enough to drive you crazy. But he is JUST a bit better than any replacements available.

  41. Capt. Tim Says:

    White tiger- Amen to that

  42. jarrett Says:

    Silence the critics, this loser stuff is a bit ridiculous, Is sanchez a good qb because he went to two afc championships, Is grossman good for leading a team to superbowl. Does matt ryan suck because he is 1-4 in the playoffs. Winning does not always mean good. Losing does not always mean bad.

  43. jarrett Says:

    Drew Brees didnt make the playoffs last year, He went 7-9, put up big stats, noone is demeaning his numbers or calling him a loser. He just played with a terrible defense.

  44. Mr Lucky Says:

    Anyone, and I mean ANYONE, who would sign Freeman for $13 million/year needs to have their voting prividges, drivers license and US citizenship revoked.

    Freeman is one thing: AVERAGE at best and INCONSISTENT mostly.

    The combination of the two mean one thing: Making the playoffs with Freeman is dubious at best.

    My problem is that RIGHT NOW, there aren’t many good prospects that are BETTER than Freeman. Let’s face it was ANYONE happy with Trent Dilfer? I wasn’t but Trent did well enough to help his team not lose the Super Bowl.

    I’m worried that Freeman turns the ball over way too much when it’s crunch time. The basics that he should have mastered by now he still struggles with. It he had continued to progress as the season went on I wouldn’t be so harsh but in 2011 and 2012 as the season went on Freeman regressed and THAT concerns me greatly.

  45. jarrett Says:

    Mr lucky do yourself a favor and google what average qbs make. Cassel got 11 mil a yr 3 yrs ago. Sanchez makes 13 million a year, cutler too. I know this smart stuff is way over your head but use google.

  46. jarrett Says:

    Mr. lucky why is it the informed beat writer says 13 mil a year, maybe because he knows what market value is.

  47. SilenceTheCritics Says:

    @ Captain Name Caller

    This probably doesn’t mean anything to you… but I could careless what you think of me…. but seriously though? Thats the best you got is calling me a chick? Lol who is the one riding Freemans jock strap? That would be YOU.

  48. SilenceTheCritics Says:

    Mr Lucky is actually spot on. We have to endure Free for hopefully just another year but he is nothing more than average… if that. Yes the defense needs to be fixed. So does the QB position…. to not realize that is just, as Captain Name caller would say, stupid.

  49. jarrett Says:

    Silencethecritcs- let me know when the next elite qb becomes available. If one does i am all for getting better at every position. I doubt we have a top 3 pick any time soon. So let me know when this happens. When it does we can talk about improving qb. Until then lets talk about improving things that we actually can like the defense. Or are you only capable of ripping freeman. I know you understand this. This draft lets focus on getting better on defense. We can improve like 4 or 5 positions. When it is possible to find a better qb option we can have discussion then.

  50. SilenceTheCritics Says:

    Jarrett you still arent understanding anything I’ve said. I have said many times that we will not be getting a QB this year. However, that does not mean we cant try… This is how I look at it.

    The defense needs 2, 3, maybe even 4 pieces to become legit. Offensively we are just a QB away from being a playoff team…
    So, knowing that… Do you really believe that getting 3 or 4 players is easier to fix than just 1 QB? Chances are its not.

    The draft and free agency will be defense heavy, no doubt but if you read the post I am not the one who continually praises Freeman and blames everything solely on the defense… hell, theres a post here that blamed the defense for Freeman’s horrible play.. Lol, thats laughable. And we dont need an Elite QB, just a consistant one… Something Free knows nothing about so far in his career.

    Oh and I only harp on Free so much mainly because I love to hear people call others names that dont agree with there opinions. It makes my day to see people stoop to childish behavior. Glad you arent one of them and like to have a mature debate instead of calling me stupid.

  51. Vic66 Says:

    Ok I get it: some think discussions are won by destroying their opponents character , calling names or belittling someone’s gender. Has someone been using these tactics in the judicial arena ? Someone suggested some of us have not followed our team, I take umbrage at that seeing I have spent far too much money watching the Bucs struggle and slide backwards over and over.

    Maybe a word of wisdom, I know I’ve been labeled stupid and and idiot, but listen a moment please. Let’s disagree without being disagreeable. Who knows, in the heat of argument someone instead of insulting one of us idiots, a flaming arrow of insult is shot at Joe and someone gets kicked out of the game.

    With this being said, I will watch, hope and pray the good Josh comes to play this year.

  52. White Tiger Says:

    Even though I’m not who was asked – I’ll answer the moronic question of whether its easier to find “one” measly QB..or 4 defensive positions:

    Ask Miami, San Francisco, Or any other franchise that seemingly haven’t been the same since guys named Marino and Montana hung up their cleats.

    Of course it’s easier to find 4 defensive pieces – but having said that – you CAN rest assured the Bucs WILL NOT be selecting a QB in the draft any higher than a 3rd round back up possibility – at least for the next 5 years.

    Here’s another thing – you’re going to be very uncomfortable when The Rockstar inks Freeman to a nice long deal – probably sometime art the draft.

    You low information football guys really should leave the heavy lifting to those of us who pay attention, Sundays will be more enjoyable for all of us if you just shut your collective pie holes while you chew.

  53. SilenceTheCritics Says:

    ^^^ This guy is the perfect example of what I am talking about. Lol, anyways there is some truth to the garbage you just spewed. If they do ink Free to a long term deal then everyone will be uncomfortable as we will be a sub 500 team for the duration of his career.

  54. jarrett Says:

    silencethecritics- If you are dumb or stupid, i will let you know. You havent been so i have no problems debating our disagreements. I could do with less shots at freeman, but i get it you hate him. There was nothing incorrect about what whitetiger just said.

  55. SilenceTheCritics Says:

    I dont hate him. I just dont believe in him anymore. I hope he has a great career and leads us to many championships in the future. But I am not going to sit here and have blind faith in him. You are right there is nothing incorrect about what he said… yet. Nothing he said was correct either. He did nothing more than give HIS opinion… and try to belittle everyone else who doesnt agree. Thats why I called his rant garbage.