Joe’s Take: Get To Vegas

September 12th, 2008
Nothing like the Vegas sporsbook experience. Joe says take the Bucs and give the points.

Ahh, nothing quite like the Vegas sportsbook experience. Take the Bucs and give the points on Sunday.

It’s rare that Joe offers betting advice, especially for a Bucs game. But Sunday’s game has easy money written all over it. The Bucs will cover the touchdown spread.

Remember, betting lines are set initially on fans’ perception, nationally, of the matchup. They’re not rooted in on-the-field reality. In other words, Vegas only wants equal betting on either team. The oddsmakers don’t care about anything else.

So the perception out there is that these Falcons are reborn with Michael Turner eating up 200+ yards and rookie QB Matt Ryan looking like a veteran. Also, the perception is the Bucs’ defense is slipping and the team is in chaos with Garcia getting benched.

But the reality is the Bucs’ defense is quite strong and Monte Kiffin and Co. wil be salivating over taking on a rookie quarterback with an offensive line that has rookies starting, too. … Experts out of Atlanta last week didn’t expect much from the O-line.  Simply put, the Falcons surprised every expert with their dominant win against the Lions.

Ryan should struggle and there is no reason to think Turner can repeat his performance, or even come close.

On the Bucs side of the ball, Tampa Bay will be playing for their lives, with the home crowd and projected 93-degree temperatures at gametime.

While Joe isn’t the biggest fan of Gruden’s play-calling, expect Chucky to return to the running game  – the strength of this offense – and have great success with Graham and Dunn.

And he’ll no doubt keep Brian Griese dinking and dunking and out of situations where he’s known to toss pick after pick. If the Bucs grab the lead early, look for Ryan to reveal his rookie colors and the Bucs to run away with this game, scoring on offense and defense.

Bucs 27, Falcons 13

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