Not Good Odds

April 17th, 2014
How Jeff Tedford develops the offense will determine if the Bucs continue a nasty trend for teams that spend a lot in free agency.

How Jeff Tedford develops the offense will determine if the Bucs continue a nasty trend for teams that spend a lot in free agency.

Yes, the Bucs made a major splash last month when the team broke out the Team Glazer checkbook and ran out of ink, they were cutting so many checks. No team has overhauled its roster more with new signings and waving goodbye to old starters.

The moves sure got Bucs fans excited. However, Evan Kaplan believes Bucs fans should temper their giddiness. Kaplan, who types for BSPN, doesn’t like the short-term odds for a team, any team, that had a radical upheaval of its roster, based on recent history.

Bucs spend big

The Buccaneers have added 15 free agents – the most of any team – so it is no surprise that the effort has been costly.

They’ve spent more than $70 million in guaranteed money in the first month of free agency, including re-signings.

Unfortunately for the Bucs, spending money early in free agency does not necessarily mean the future is bright. Four teams spent at least $50 million in the first month of free agency last season (Lions, Dolphins, Colts, Cowboys) and the Colts were the only one of those teams to make the playoffs in 2013.

Another difference? All four of the aforementioned teams had established quarterbacks (yes, Joe believes Ryan Tannehill is more of an established NFL starter than what the Bucs currently have). And right now, that’s the main question for the Bucs: offense. The defense should be just fine. It was OK to begin with and Joe is certain Bucs coach Lovie Smith will find a way to generate a feared pass rush.

The offense is the mystery in so many ways. How it unfolds likely will determine how and when the team finishes the 2014 season.

42 Responses to “Not Good Odds”

  1. biff barker Says:

    The Rays have pretty much proven that a meager payroll can still field a competitive team.

    The Bucs really had no choice but to spend this year Joe. L&L needed to buy some new hearts and minds. Next year we clear Nicks, Goldson and VJax and pay GMC and LVD. We should have some cap room left over too.

  2. Architek Says:

    Nope the sky is not falling.

    4-12 means nowhere to go but up!

  3. Buc1987 Says:

    “Evan Kaplan believes Bucs fans should temper their giddiness.”

    …and so does Buc1987 in a big way. Some of you are in for a HUGE letdown.

  4. finishers Says:

    it’s not going to completely change in one year,but we will get better! give L&L at least two years.

  5. William Says:

    @1987 – With the new coaching staff I’m already satisfied and looking for more real football. No expectation on the outcome of 2014. Is the 1st yr for L & L. I am ready to experience real football. Even if we finish 4-12 it will not feel the same as last year. Trust me…

    …Connor Shaw is coming to Tampa

  6. SAMCRO Says:

    Yeah but somehow according to JOE if we select Johnny Football we don’t really need a better offense. He should be able to score all by himself. If we don’t do better than .500 I will be calling for Manziels head. I will blame it all on him. It’s all about wins, right? It’s not about the supporting cast or how you play on the suckiest offense in the division. All I know is after being subjected to JOES agenda all summer long and then to have the Bucs select Manziel with our first pick and not make the playoffs, I’m gonna be pissed, and I’m gonna want my pound of flesh.

  7. Bucsfanman Says:

    I think anytime you have this much turnover the odds are not in your favor. Teams like KC are the exception and expectations should be tempered.
    There are a lot of journeymen in the mix. I’m just saying.

  8. Dean Says:

    One thing that is often overlooked, is the upside of returnees. Carl Nicks, both running backs, Conner Barth and our SLB.

  9. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    I agree with Buc1987.

  10. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    Honestly, I have a feeling the injury bug will play a major role with the Bucs this year. Tampa is an environment conducive to injury and most of the signings have injury histories.

  11. Bucfever40 Says:

    The Debbie downers are out in force, I hate this sh%t, first of all, fans are not any more “giddy” than in years past, so rain on this parade all you want Mr kaplan, but there’s NOTHING that says the Bucs will fail this year either, the Bucs are prepped to do some special things, and if you think it’s etched in stone (you too joe) that the Bucs will be just like most of the “winners of Free Agency” in years past, only to fall on their faces, then sit back and witness the contrary, because I’m confident we’re a much better team than last year, even before this year’s draft!

  12. tmaxcon Says:

    you also have to take a look at the big picture… You can take the cowboys and the dolphins out of the equation based on the dysfunction across the board both teams went through last year. No end in sight for either miami and cowboys on the dysfunction front. Cowboys are in the same position Raiders are in with Al Davis. Nothing good will happen until Jerry Jones relinquishes control or drops dead. It’s not like Jones kid is much better either. Miami with that star struck owner is not turning it around any time soon.

    Not saying things will be Rosie and the bucs will not go through some growing pains but I like the character of the players signed. will that translate to the field and wins who knows but I doubt if they struggle it will be for a lack of effort or complete dysfunction. I don’t know enough about the Lions or Colts issues to make a comment.

  13. Bucfever40 Says:

    Buc1987, dude, huge let down? Says who? Nobody is doing backflips that I can see over all the changes, but to be that quick to assume that we’re just gonna bomb this year, doesn’t sound like a fan to me. Let’s see how this unfolds, but damn, don’t write their obituaries before they’re buried, let’s have some hope and believe in a good coach that we finally have.

  14. Big Mo Says:

    @William – Watching Connor Shaw come of the bench last year At Mizzou when he was hurt and sick to deliver a gutsy performance made me feel this guy has got an attitude & desire that we have not seen in a Bucs QB in quite a long time. IF we pick him up late, I am all for it.

  15. Buc1987 Says:

    “Nobody is doing backflips that I can see over all the changes”

    Bucfever40…you may not be saying it on here, but there are several that are saying it and expecting great things this season.

    I’ll also add, by nature I’m usually a very optimistic person.

  16. kevin Says:

    You to give lovie four years. This two years and fire him trend should not be continued with aa veteran coach. Give him his entire contract to work with his new team. I do think playoffs are in reach for us this year.

  17. getaclue Says:

    For the last time you don’t have to clear anyone to pay gmc he is already 15mil against the cap 2014

  18. Couch Fan Says:

    I expect a winning season and a chance to go to the playoffs. I dont expect playoffs but i do expect a competitive team that should come close to having a winning record. Anything less will be a big disappointment. I dont think that is to much to expect.

  19. Couch Fan Says:

    I expect a chance to go to the playoffs.

  20. Buc1987 Says:

    Damn it all. Last summer when I was supporting Freeman and saying the team was going to go 10-6 or 11-5. I told everyone on here that I was a realist too. That if I was wrong, people on here were going to find out just how much of a realist I am.

    I look forward to the 2014 season it should be interesting to see how all these moves pan out. So many new players to watch and keep an eye on. I’ll be rooting for a division crown come August, but in the back of my mind I’ll be thinking draft position for the 2015 draft and how far they have to go.

    Yes I’m a true blue Bucs fan, that’s also a realist.

  21. Architek Says:

    .500 or better

    Some of you are defeated before even taking a snap!

  22. ToesOnTheLine Says:

    Give Lovie 4 years because he’s a veteran coach!? Please the guy should get the same 3 year window every NFL HC hire should get, and if the team isn’t winning by then next man up.

  23. Eric Says:

    Count me as Giddy and anticipating 10-6.

    Lovie knows how to win.

  24. bigpoppabuc Says:

    My expectations are still to be determined. I believe Lovie is a good coach,but he has a history of questionable personnel decisions. Defensively I think we are an improved pass rush away from being really great, and that’s enough to give you hope in every game you play.
    Joe’s right… The offense is the biggest concern. How much better did we really get on the O-Line? We went from needing one more decent wideout to two. We took the only offensive player we had last year put his finger print in the record books and are putting him the bench.

    time will tell, I just hope all those bears fans weren’t exactly right when they told what we’d just been sold when Lovie got his “handshake”.

  25. pick6 Says:

    alot of times that type of spending is concentrated on 2 or 3 big ticket players (like our VJax\Nicks\Wright opening day a couple years ago)….with a couple big money guys, even an outstanding individual player has limited ability to improve an 11 man unit, and one or two injuries or letdowns might make the year’s free agency haul a bust.

    in this instance it seems like we were not buying star power with most of our signings so much as building depth and roster flexibility. i think guys like mccown or collins (really all but johnson, verner, and maybe deitrich-smith) were brought here with the feeling that the team is better off if a draft pick or holdover player proves they deserve to start ahead of the free agent. that diminishes pressure and expectations, vs signing 3 guys to Revis money or something to top $70 million

  26. Oil Derrick Brooks Says:

    Hard to know what to expect before you see what Tedford actually does. But, I do expect improvement.

    At the same time, you’re fixing a roster built by a terrible GM. I don’t expect miracles.

    Before you bash this GM, let’s see his record first. We saw 5 whole years of Dominik’s record.

  27. Gusjackson Says:

    I hold this team to the same expectation I hold them to every year. Super Bowl. Everyone in one buc expects it and I expect it too. Will it happen, we don’t know yet but to say this team doesn’t have a chance to make the playoffs is non sense, teams turn things around quickly and we could very well be in a Super Bowl hunt next year

  28. Bucsfanman Says:

    @Architek- Not “defeated”, just realistic. Don’t get me wrong, I’m as optimistic as the next guy, but this is the Buccaneers we’re talking about. There hasn’t been much to get excited about over the last decade or so.
    I’d be happy going 8-8.

  29. BoJim Says:

    Buc1987 Said:

    “I’ll also add, by nature I’m usually a very optimistic person.”

    Really Dude? Not by reading your comments on more than a few threads. I know a couple guys like you (not raking you over the coals) and they always think about the very worst. Then any news is good news. Be positive just a bit man.

  30. Buc1987 Says:

    BoJim…ha ha ha ha check the archives from last summer. You can’t get anymore optimistic than I was. Pessimism is one thing, realism is another.

  31. Daffy Buc Says:

    How come the defense isn’t a mystery? Chicago Bears highlights are on you tube. So are Cal highlights!! Don’t be lazy!!

  32. Buc1987 Says:

    Actually PRBucfan, already said recently that negativity doesn’t suit me well. Knowing that I’m always the optimist. He remembers last summer. Who knows? All this negativity might work in my favor. I was so positive last year and look how that turned out. I was dead wrong. I hope I’m dead wrong this year as well.

  33. PRBucFan Says:

    blah blah blah

    Different team, different year, different situation

  34. PRBucFan Says:

    Your right it doesn’t suit you at all

    Kind of annoying too ;)

    Which you never ever have been lol

  35. Buc1987 Says:

    “Kind of annoying too”

    PRB..that’s the fun part!

  36. William Says:

    @ Big Mo – I hope it comes true. I feel good about this kid. Hopefully Tedford and Arroyo can do their magic.

    Hey if Joe can dream and can too! Go Bucs!

  37. BamBamBuc Says:

    1987, I’m not buying it. You can talk pessimistic all you want, but I seriously doubt that you don’t have high hopes and are tempering them to avoid any letdown. You’re not the type to be pessimistic and will still be letdown if we are bad enough to warrant a top 10 pick next year.

  38. Buc1987 Says:

    BamBamBuc…Hilarious stuff. You got me and the wife laughing for a bit. I just don’t see all these pieces gelling right away and by right away I mean the whole freaking season.

    Give me time though the positive might come back before the season. Funny how you say that “avoid a letdown” thingy. That’s what I used to tell people like Couch Fan last year. That he’s expecting a dismal season to avoid a let down and he didn’t really think that.

    Do I see promise on the horizon? Of course I do. I think we all do now. Maybe you are right, maybe I still have the optimism but have put up a road block in front of it because of 2013.

    I’ll tell ya one thing. The decision was already made in my household that we will not be renewing our season tickets this season. The main reason is because nearly 50% of the team is gone and who the hell knows what’s going to happen in 2014? There is nothing to gauge this current roster on until we see them play together. I will however make it a DEMAND in my house, my wife be damned, that we will be going to atleast 4 games this season regardless of their record.

  39. Buc1987 Says:

    Like Pawn Stars. In my house family comes first and the Bucs come second depending on who you ask…

  40. Ladyfan Says:

    KEY WORD: Gel.

    Can they find each other on the field and complete assignments in the short time before the season begins? Tough to do. We’ll see.

  41. Bucfan#37 Says:

    How can a fan of the Bucs not be eternally optimistic awaiting every season? Let’s get this thing started, the draft I mean.

  42. Buc1987 Says:

    Bucfan#37 Says:
    April 17th, 2014 at 9:26 pm

    “How can a fan of the Bucs not be eternally optimistic awaiting every season? Let’s get this thing started, the draft I mean.”

    That’s an easy answer. You live, you learn, you grow up and you shell out lots of money to see your team go 4-12 when you are expecting 10-6. You take a good hard look at 50% of the team being gutted and REALISTICALLY don’t expect much. Hell LadyFan gets it. Keyword : Gel.

    Realistically it’s going to take more than one season for this team to gel and they still might not even gel. They are rebuilding. I don’t care if ANYONE say they are not. This shyte is going to take time. Years.

    What started out as an easy answer turned into a story, sorry about that.

 
 

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