Middle Class Jameis Winston
February 22nd, 2019
BY IRA KAUFMAN
We’re four years into Jameis Winston’s NFL journey and he’s still stuck in the middle of the road.
The first overall pick of the 2015 draft isn’t elite and he isn’t a bust. Buc ownership has stuck with him through a suspension and a chronic issue with giveaways.
Ironically, Winston’s blind-side protector is also toiling in the NFL’s middle class. Donovan Smith, the 34th overall pick in 2015, is also likely to remain a Buccaneer through the first season of the Bruce Arians regime.
When ranking the league’s starters under center, there’s a dandy dozen that sit at the top. Some are wily veterans and some are youngsters bursting with talent.
Winston is not among them.
Put them in any order you wish, but the top tier consists of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton.
Wouldn’t it be nice if Winston manages to crack the code and join this distinguished group by the end of the 2019 season?
If that happens, the Glazers would be thrilled to give him a big, fat extension and restore him as the face of the franchise.
He’s not there primarily because Winston hasn’t established himself as a winner. There are plenty of reasons for that ugly 21-33 career record, but in the end an elite quarterback overcomes personnel issues.
In The Pack
At this point, Winston belongs in the middle group, accompanied by Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, Derek Carr, Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton and Alex Smith.
Even before Arians gets his greedy hands on him, I would take Winston over Joe Flacco, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, Jimmy Garoppolo and Lamar Jackson.
If Winston can clean up his fumbling problems, that would go a long way toward his development. There’s been a lot of focus on his proclivity for throwing picks, but let’s put that career 3.0 percent interception rate in some historical perspective.
That pick percentage is lower than Hall of Famers John Elway, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Warren Moon, Roger Staubach, Fran Tarkenton, Dan Fouts, Bart Starr, Sonny Jurgensen, Johnny Unitas, Len Dawson, Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Namath and Ken Stabler.
To be fair, those quarterbacks weren’t operating during an era when the NFL made a conscious decision to generate more points by tilting the rules toward big passing numbers.
Mayfield turned in a terrific rookie season in Cleveland, and one of the reasons Todd Monken will be running the Browns offense this fall is his work with Winston in Tampa.
“The one thing from what I hear about Baker that is similar to Jameis is Jameis is a tremendous young man,” Monken says. “He loves football. He is very intelligent. He is passionate about it. He owns it. Those are all of the things that I hear about Baker – a guy that loves football, that loves to compete, that loves to be around the building and owns his mistakes, which is a great start.”
The Bucs didn’t draft Winston to stall in the middle of the pack. They believed he had star quality, so here comes Arians to wish upon a star.
Middle of the road might work in NASCAR, but the Glazers want more.
And if Winston doesn’t step up in class, it won’t be Arians waving goodbye to One Buc Place.
Ira Kaufman began covering the NFL as a New York Giants beat writer in 1979. He arrived on the Buccaneers beat in 1985. In July 2016, the corporate leash was cut from his neck when he joined JoeBucsFan.com. The award-winning Ira Kaufman Podcast fires twice per week, and Ira’s columns appear thrice weekly, except when Ira is on special assignment. Tampa Bay’s only Hall of Fame voter also is a popular guest on national radio shows and on local TV. All his work at JoeBucsFan is presented by Ed Morse Cadillac Tampa and Ed Morse Cadillac Brandon.
February 22nd, 2019 at 12:42 pm
Beautiful Article, Sage! Love the use of new vocabulary for us Knuckledraggers! Proclivity-make us reach for the Websters! Educate us Sage!
February 22nd, 2019 at 12:44 pm
Jameis just needs to play within himself. Hopefully with a revamped defense, we will be able to benefit from more turnovers and better field position, and this will allow our offense to be more balanced and committed to the run. As we saw with Chicago, good defense creates good offense. Trubisky is not a good quarterback, but his defense is able to help him tremendously. Outside of 5 games in 2016, Jameis has yet to have a defense help him at all. Most of the time, Jameis is having to dig out of 7-0 before he even touches the ball, and that can wreck an entire gameplan.
Better Defense = Better Jameis.
February 22nd, 2019 at 12:55 pm
I love how people think that Arians is going to come here and flip a magic switch to make Winston look like a franchise QB and former overall pick. Don’t get me wrong, I would be totally thrilled of that happens, but I have my doubts. Winston is who and what he is.
What I also find funny is how people seem to think that Winston needs “developed”. He’s been playing QB since he was 4 years old. Started 2 years at FSU and is a 4 year starter in the NFL. He is what he is.
Also quite amusing is the Byron Leftwich angle. Very many people did not want Winston drafted here because he reminded them to much of Leftwich – slow, long deliberate throwing motion, bad ball security, bad mechanics and footwork, just a career journeyman. And who is now Winton’s offensive coordinator and new QB coach and QB mentor? That same Byron Leftwich. PRICELESS!!! You can’t even make that stuff up, lol
February 22nd, 2019 at 1:14 pm
After over 50 NFL starts this is who he is.
You can cover up some of his mistakes with a strong run game but he’s not clutch and can’t help you consistently win
He peaked his first year at FSU
February 22nd, 2019 at 1:14 pm
good article Ira… After 4 years and all his issues on and off the field, middle of the pack is generous … but keeping hope alive, again !!
February 22nd, 2019 at 1:24 pm
Winston is in that 15-20 range when it comes to QB’s which is not good for #1 overall pick
February 22nd, 2019 at 1:27 pm
Ira is absolutely right. Thanks for pointing out the eye test that most of us see.
Have been saying that for some time. And I get criticized for being a hater.
Jameis is buc and most of us support him. (There are a few haters )
However , he should not be entitled / above the law like he gets from a lot of people here. He has a right to have some blame.
With that said , arians is perfect hire . Let’s see if Jameis can get out of the middle of the pack. He will be better. Just not sure how much better yet. The end of last year was a good sign.
FYI – deshaun foster in better tier. Kid can play In his short time with injuries.
February 22nd, 2019 at 1:30 pm
How will Ndog reply?
He only thinks people drink the coolaid from Espn analysts take. And we know nothing about football.
Ira knows more about Bucs then all of us put together.
February 22nd, 2019 at 1:55 pm
With Marcus Arroyo and Mike Bajakian as coaches Winston should be #1 all time best QB ever. I mean what more can you ask for than these two teaching you to play nfl QB.
February 22nd, 2019 at 1:57 pm
C’mon Ira….none of those QBs have taken a snap in the NFL during this decade. The NFL game is different compared to when Favre, Warner, or any of those other guys were considered elite.
February 22nd, 2019 at 2:04 pm
Wentz isn’t even the best quarterback on his team lol but whatever
February 22nd, 2019 at 2:05 pm
Need to get him plays that build on completions, upping his accuracy and confidence/hot streak.
And please Arians/Leftwich, runs some damn screens to alleviate Winston when the rush is getting heavy.
February 22nd, 2019 at 2:44 pm
Draft Dwayne Haskins @ 5….this time next year we’ll no for sure about Jameis and have Haskins with a year under his belt as a back up….so if Jameis does not take a HUGE step up…let him go and we’ll have 4 years with Haskins and a bunch of cap $$$$ not paying Jameis in 2020….if Jameis does what all his Stat Carriers tout…trade Haskins and sign Jameis to a longer deal….expensive insurance but the odds are Jameis is as Jameis has always been.
February 22nd, 2019 at 2:50 pm
Good article Ira, but it’s yet another ‘Been there, done that’ assessment of Jameis. Reminded me of Yogi Berra’s famous quip “Deja vu all over again”. The only thing that’s important right now is how Jameis performs in 2019. That’ll very likely set his future.
February 22nd, 2019 at 3:16 pm
In the end an elite QB overcomes personnel issues.
***************
Then why is Aaron Rodgers 10 – 12 – 1 over the last 2 seasons?
Sometimes I wonder if you guys actually read what you write.
February 22nd, 2019 at 3:17 pm
Jameis never had Arroyo as a coach. But yeah, Bajakian.
February 22nd, 2019 at 3:26 pm
He is who he is
23rd best
We draft tua next year
Everyone forgets about ole jameis
February 22nd, 2019 at 3:31 pm
This is a good example of how we can all disagree on QBs. And how much having a good team around a QB can make them look like they’re some great QB when they’re just in a good situation:
Top Tier: “Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton.”
Hell no to Goff IMO. Dude flat out sucks anytime he has to play from behind or without their run game working (basically Jameis entire career lol).
Middle tier: “Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, Derek Carr, Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton and Alex Smith.”
I’d take out Trubisky/Manning/Mariota/Dalton/ and Smith (for health reasons) from this list and put them in the sh1t list of QBs I’d never want over Winston.
Not sold at all on Trubisky whatsoever. When you are QB on a team full of weapons/run game and the #1 D in the NFL, and only pass for 3200 yards I’m sorry but you are a game manager at best right now.
Eli manning is terrible. Marcus Mariota has been pretty terrible statistically when healthy compared to Winston lately (11 TD: 8 INT in 14 games last year and only 2500 passing yards wtf lol)
Alex Smith is done probably.
Andy Dalton sucks.
So in conclusion, I can buy the top 12 outside of Goff. The next group I’d whittle down to 6. Which sounds right because Winston IMO is at worst a top 18-20 QB with the potential to crack that top 12.
Good news with that top 12-
-Big Ben / Drew Brees / Tom Brady / Rivers could all fall off in play any day
-Cam Newton injuries creeping up
February 22nd, 2019 at 3:53 pm
The problem with assessing Winston as a QB the last 4 years is that he has been on a team that has been at or near the bottom of the barrel in every aspect of the game EXCEPT the passing game. Running game, defense, and special teams has been beyond dreadful.
Middle of the pack compared to the league on this organization is high praise!
We spend an awful lot of time criticizing Winston’s play, but, in comparison to the performance of the rest of the team, he and his receiving corps has been a bright spot.
Find a coaching staff that can develop talent and tailor a scheme to that talent. Find linemen that can run block. Find a kicker that can make a kick. Find a defense that can get consistent stops and a TO or two, and my guess is the offense – including it’s QB – takes a nice step up.
February 22nd, 2019 at 4:09 pm
Bculaw I could not have explained it any better.
February 22nd, 2019 at 4:34 pm
Sage, usually I’m completely with you, but I think some of your assessment here is way off.
First off, you did not mention Nick Foles, who should be in a tier above Winston easily. Won a SB and carried his team again this year. Goff should not be in the tier above, he benefited from an elite running game and coaching.
My biggest gripe (and I couldn’t believe when you said it on your podcast, I spit coffee everywhere) is saying Deshaun Watson and Winston are even. That is an absolute joke! Stats, record, eyeball test…. Watson is leaps and bounds above Jameis. Watson would KILL for the weapons AND pass protection Jameis received. Deshaun is without a doubt in the top tier.
When all is said and done, Jameis is between 17-20, which is about where Steve Joe had him. With this new coaching staff, I believe he can jump up to between 10-12. I honestly don’t see him going higher than 10 until some of the greats retire. Personally I think Winston is more trouble than he is worth, I just pray this coaching staff gets it done.
February 22nd, 2019 at 6:27 pm
Put Winston on a scale of judgement as a really good quarterback scale Falls to one side. Then you take the League’s worst defense and place it on the scale and it levels out. That’s how you get an average Quarterback who is really above-average. Been saying for years fix the defense in this team is a contender
February 23rd, 2019 at 8:12 am
Cam newton can’t throw a pass more than twenty yards. You can’t possibly think he played well this year, or is even physically well enough, to put in the group ahead of Winston.