Not A Great Stat For Jameis
January 11th, 2018
Accurate or misleading?
On face value, it doesn’t look good.
But if you peel the onion skins off the numbers, perhaps they’re not that bad?
Matt Harmon is a football analyst for NFL.com. He dug up interesting data from the just completed season. Call it “Next Gen Stats.”
In this statistic, the NFL numberscrunchers documented each receiver’s yards of separation from his defender at the time the quarterback released the ball. Bucs receivers were among the best, averaging 3.10 yards, third best in the NFL.
On face value, what does that tell you? It tells Joe that Bucs quarterbacks (mostly America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston) were not good at getting the ball to open receivers. This also makes Joe scratch his head as to why the Bucs were so terrible at YAC (yards after catch) when they had so much separation?
(Joe cannot find NFL team YAC but can for individuals. The two best Bucs for YAC were Charles Sims and Adam Humphries, Nos. 74 and 75 respectively — two reserve players.)
Well, could that yards-after-separation stat be bloated? How many catches did O.J. Howard have, for example, where the guy was alone in his own area code? That had to inflate those numbers.
Also, Jameis is a spot thrower. If you are fortunate enough to attend training camp practices, you will notice this, that Jameis often released a pass before a receiver makes a break.
Bucs tight end Cam Brate told Joe after the loss to Green Bay that what looked like an irresponsible throw into triple coverage for a touchdown by Jameis to Brate was actually Jameis throwing to a spot. And it was Brate’s job, he said, to shake loose from defenders and be there for the pass.
As with many stats, they don’t tell the whole story. But this does make Joe think.
January 11th, 2018 at 6:38 pm
Wish we were talking about a playoff game
January 11th, 2018 at 6:48 pm
Maybe he needs better coaching?
January 11th, 2018 at 6:55 pm
It’s simple jameis never hits them in stride they always have to wait or adjust to the ball
January 11th, 2018 at 6:55 pm
Maybe throwing behind the receivers and taking them out of their stride is the reason.
January 11th, 2018 at 6:58 pm
The numbers look good but jameis has to play better
January 11th, 2018 at 6:59 pm
Question Joe, seriously how do you get Jameis is not good at getying the ball to open receivers out of that stat? I don’t understand.
January 11th, 2018 at 7:14 pm
This is what I said last year! #weaponsforwinston wasn’t needed, guys were open last year and he can’t hit open guys. Get him a solid d and a stud rb and hold teams to 17, that’s how we will make the playoffs.
January 11th, 2018 at 7:17 pm
Because 3 cannot hit anyone in stride. Thats why all they throw are digs and comebacks. ME13 must a zero Yac average.
January 11th, 2018 at 7:23 pm
These separation stats are pointless and for losers! About 0.5 yards more than the league average. Whoopdie freaking doo. Everyone in the league based off these stats are one in the same when it comes to recievers gaining separation. It doesn’t account for what coverage the defense did or what route the reciever ran. I guess if every defense ran man coverage exclusively this would actually have meaning. Wr screens usually have nobody around them at the time of catch so i guess that counts as “separation” but the balls thrown behind the los so who cares. Plus I bet most of the yards are skewed based off OJ being wide open on a couple PA passes but I wouldnt credit OJ as working the defense with his route running to gain that separation, that’s great play calling to get a busted coverage. Separation to me would mean that you’re actually beating a guy or a double team actively trying to cover you. Busted coverages usually come from great play design or defensive miscommunication. Do I create separation if no one decides to cover me? I guess that also makes me a good route runner too. Perhaps we should research how good our recievers are at blocking and maybe that will solve the sorry excuse of a running game. I guess the blocking icon may have to come back to show these receivers how block better and forget how to catch.
January 11th, 2018 at 7:25 pm
Lmao watch all the FSU homers come out and find a way to blame anything and everything and everyone except the person throwing the ball to these open receivers lol. This should be some good reading to see some of the excuses.
And go…………..
January 11th, 2018 at 7:48 pm
It that’s the case why did Gruden, Difler and Marriucci all say they had not seen a QB with the type of anticipation that Jameis has. Its mostly the routes because Dirk’s playbook consists of so many long/deep passes. Dirk must shorten some of these routes which will also help the offensive line.
January 11th, 2018 at 7:56 pm
Lovable yucs
You are right on. And there are many of them!
January 11th, 2018 at 7:58 pm
So..what this equates to is that jameis needs to be better at throwing on the run! Gotcha!
January 11th, 2018 at 8:05 pm
Interesting that the Bottom 7 contain NE, Jax, and Philly who are All still in the playoffs
January 11th, 2018 at 8:16 pm
If Bucs receivers are that open, shouldn’t Jameis’ completion percentage be in top-five?
January 11th, 2018 at 8:26 pm
Again, a very misleading stat (Stats are for losers)
It’s says more about the play system design and the patterns the receivers are running rather than anything about Jameis. If the Bucs had all of these receivers running free I’m sure that Jameis could occasionally hit one.
January 11th, 2018 at 8:28 pm
Jameis is what he is. He’s gonna always be a Brent Favre type gunslinger. We will always be in a position to win games with him. So stop worrying about Jameis. WE NEED A DEFENSE. And we need one now..next season. The Bucs offense is fine. It needs help though. And our Defense has given them none. We lost 5 real winnable game because of no Defense. Look at the Jaguars. If they just had half the offense we have. So Offense is not the answer entirely. But you sure as hell better be able to stop somebody in this league. Jacsonville can. Thats why they are where they are…DUMMIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
January 11th, 2018 at 8:33 pm
Does this factor in time to throw on those throws where they are open, or drops? I just don’t know what this is actually telling us. I mean if a guy is open by ten yards on the left side of the field and the first read is to the right and the QB only gets time to go through two reads right to left what does this tell us? I am seriously not defending Jameis on this one I just don’t think this means anything in tge grand scheme of things. I mean Seattle is higher on this list than we are and Russell Wilson comp %is lower
January 11th, 2018 at 8:34 pm
So, Arizona is ranked 31st? It seems like their WRs were 7-11 against the Bucs. They stayed open, wide, wide open!
January 11th, 2018 at 8:44 pm
It seems like jumping to a conclusion on this one Joe. We all know you would much rather have Cam Newton as he is a “true franchise qb” but it looks like you’re stuck with a guy that is already much better throwing the football, sorry.
January 11th, 2018 at 8:52 pm
Doesn’t factor in a lot of things. Joe’s pretty sure he was clear in the story this very well ***could be*** a misleading stat.
January 11th, 2018 at 8:53 pm
FSU Homers..lol…yep..
January 11th, 2018 at 9:01 pm
Joe
Here is the team YAC stats you seek:
http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=231
Bucs were 20th.
January 11th, 2018 at 9:07 pm
So someone sits around all day counting the yards between receivers and defenders? zzzzz!
January 11th, 2018 at 9:09 pm
Yet another overrated garbage stats. We see those receiver falling after catches. We see JW throwing to spot no matter the coverage? Don’t we watch the games?
January 11th, 2018 at 9:18 pm
Yeah Mike Evans is the king of looking for a place to fall which is weird cause he’s so freaking big. And Djax that dude can’t wait to find the sideline. It is clear all his career YAC is from when he is behind everyone. So if you don’t hit him deep forget YAC from him, we’ll we could throw slants but you know our coach thinks that illegal.
January 11th, 2018 at 9:32 pm
I might be dumb, but wouldn’t this stat say more about the QBs decision making than the WRs getting open? If Winston is third WR separation on his throws, then he knows where to throw and when and to what receiver he throws the ball to, not his accuracy. I think this stat shows that Winston knows where to go with the football. If I’m a coach, I want my QB at the top of this list. DON’T WE WANT OUR QB THROWING TO THE GUY WITH THE MOST SEPARATION FROM HIS DEFENDER???????!!!!!!! We can argue about ball placement for YAC all we want, but this stat tells me that Winston has the mental game figured out. He throws to the most open receiver more times than not. Can’t ask more than that .
January 11th, 2018 at 9:32 pm
And get paid to do so!
January 11th, 2018 at 9:33 pm
Ndog
Ur right. Man. Mike Evans literally falls down as he catching it. I also saw djx take a end around in the last falcons game and while there was a hole size of a ocean he ran out of bounds. Like what the hell?
January 11th, 2018 at 9:33 pm
Thanks Donuts!
January 11th, 2018 at 9:44 pm
Although I’d like to see the stats without those two WIDE OPEN throws to OJ, Humphries was way more open than Godwin on that last throw, so what do I know? lol!!!!
January 11th, 2018 at 9:46 pm
Adam Humphries leads the Bucs in YAC every season. But that’s the one guy that the Bucs are always looking to replace.
January 11th, 2018 at 9:48 pm
Lakeland, I’ve never heard of the Bucs looking to replace him, only the fans.
January 11th, 2018 at 9:50 pm
Does screens count also??
January 11th, 2018 at 9:52 pm
Those numbers are so close that they may not be statistically significant, thus mean absolutely nothing.
January 11th, 2018 at 9:56 pm
BuccaneEric75
Yeah you’re right, the fans want him gone.
January 11th, 2018 at 10:10 pm
Charles Sims | 230 YAC
Adam Humphries |229 YAC
DeSean Jackson | 185 YAC
O.J.Howard | 160 YAC
Cam Brate | 155 YAC
Chris Godwin |146 YAC
Mike Evans | 132 YAC
January 11th, 2018 at 10:14 pm
Hump had 402 YAC in 2016, his numbers went way down this season.
January 11th, 2018 at 10:21 pm
“Also, Jameis is a spot thrower. If you are fortunate enough to attend training camp practices, you will notice this, that Jameis often released a pass before a receiver makes a break.”
Well you dont have to be a training camp to notice that. its pretty common knowledge to anyone whos watched Winston since FSU till now based on watching his games.
January 11th, 2018 at 10:25 pm
but thinking more on that fact of Winston throwing to spots. He often releases the ball before receivers are out of the break.. meaning before they even made a cut on their route. So if this stat measures the yards between WR and defender apon release of the QBs pass.. wouldnt that mean Jameis numbers would be skewed lower? Hes releasing the ball before the WR even makes his separation move… So maybe Howards indeed putting Jameis in the top of this stats. He probably should be lower, but itd be a meaningless stat for him none the less. Basically peeling onion skin back on this one renders it irrelevant in terms of Winston
January 11th, 2018 at 10:34 pm
I’m not sure about these stats after looking at the full list. Big Ben near the bottom? Jets right behind us? Not sure. Probably misleading.
January 11th, 2018 at 10:42 pm
The excuses fall like rain in a rain forest. “I don’t get it Joe” Winston was perfect that one year at FSU so it myst be because…..insert excuse, any of the following have been used already:
Koetter, receivers, O line, refs, injuries, Running back, Defense, kickers, Fans,Trump, Glazers,global warming, ISIS, Harvey Weinstein, Uber drivers, Bengazi, Hillary, liberals, republicans, Bajakian, Stats lie, poor turf, cold weather, rain, hot weather, poor styling, Hargraves, and last but not least “fake news”. There I think I covered all the excuses why its not ever Winston’s fault. If I missed any, please add to the list. Wanna make sure we got all of them.
January 11th, 2018 at 11:30 pm
I was at the Atlanta game in Tampa. Winston threw a TD to a double- covered Evans in that game. Winston also hit a open Howard on a underneath route that he took for a TD. I think it’s a good example of the unreliability of the stat. I noticed quite a few underneath routes open that weren’t thrown that night but Winston’s aggressiveness to throw to Evans got a score. Then again, hitting more of the underneath routes may have provided opportunity for big plays (Like Howard’s) may have helped Tampa win that game. It does present
January 12th, 2018 at 12:56 am
I don’t see how these numbers turn into something negative, all they tell you is the Bucs WR’s got good separation – and Winston had a very high yards per attempt, which would seem to line up with that number. Now how you get those numbers can mean different things. Evans for example is never “open”, ever, meanwhile even on the balls that went deep to D-Jax it wasn’t like he was running alone wide open like Corey Davis was in KC when Mariota completely missed him, D-Jax generally had someone within a step or two.
Instead I’m guessing the numbers are inflated by two people, Charles Simms and Humphries. Because defenses put all resources into stopping Evans, D-Jax, Brate and sometimes OJ, it generally left Humphries standing wide open – plus Dirk designed nearly every 3rd down play of the year to be an empty set pass to Simms, generally behind the LOS so defenders would still be yards away.
Not sure how these numbers are flipped into something negative, I don’t read them that way at all.
January 12th, 2018 at 2:18 am
ALL THIS ACADEMIC. MIKE SMITH’S DEFENSE WILL KEEP BUCS IN LAST PLACE YET AGAIN.
NO HOPE. NO CHANCE.
January 12th, 2018 at 4:59 am
Sydney still hasn’t learned how to use capital and lower case letters to form sentences. Sad!
Anyways Joe, I think you’re spot on about a few crazy wide open passes to Howard skewing those numbers. Cuz anyone who watched the Bucs saw our WRs had very little separation from DBs most of the time.
Now, if that is factoring in all WRs on the field (meaning guys who were open but Winston didn’t throw the ball to), that could be a reason the Bucs are ranked so high…
January 12th, 2018 at 6:19 am
This spot throwing explains some things. In the last game Jameis was trying
to throw to Evans and two defenders already were in spot Jameis threw to for an INT. So if a receiver has to be at a spot Jameis would also need a snapshot in his head of where defenders are and and also where they are going. This just might be too much too much to process in a split second before a throw. Not sure this is the best type of trrow in traffic, but would be most effective in one on one matchups.
January 12th, 2018 at 6:29 am
Rod,
I have to agree with you on the point of the numbers seem to align with what we’ve seen on the field.
I have to disagree, with the idea that the numbers are skewed by OJ or screens
etc., The fact is this is a batch approach to stats, the volume of data by its sheer
quantity , receptions and distance from defender, negates the issue of a few receptions or screens. All team’s are going to have some wide open receivers and everyone has screen plays or bubbles. Game to game the data is likely to be skewed by these events. In the course of 16 games the numbers smooth out outliers.
There is something that would be useful, I don’t know how the data is useful , unless it’s able to identify the routes that produced the best outcomes.
Last Data isn’t good or bad or fake news whatever, it’s simply a measurement of a particular set of data. I don’t believe in this case that it’s useful in any way.
It is what it is.
January 12th, 2018 at 11:58 am
Looks about right to me. Jameis seems to have serious accuracy issues hitting recievers in stride. As somebody posted above, he’s good on digs and comebacks and good against zone coverage. Basically throwing to spots. He’s pretty bad hitting recievers in man coverage. This separation stat confirms my eye test.
January 12th, 2018 at 1:41 pm
I agree with you 100% Duke, this data is like showing showing people abstract artwork and asking what they see.