Seferian-Jenkins’ Score = Bucs Loss
July 11th, 2016
Joe’s commentary on the value of tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins yesterday drew some heated debate.
It got the stats crowd all hot in the pants — and not in a good way.
You can click the link above to revisit the discussion, but the chatter got Joe looking deeper at ASJ’s six career touchdown passes. Interestingly, he has never scored a touchdown during a Buccaneers victory.
Last year, ASJ caught two garbage time TDs against the Bears and Rams. Both preceded kneel-downs by the Bucs’ opposition. He also racked up two TD catches in the 42-14 drubbing by the Titans on opening day. Who could forget ASJ high-stepping to the house down 42-7?
In 2015, ASJ snagged two fourth-quarter touchdowns that gave the Bucs the lead (vs. Minnesota and vs. Atlanta). Great stuff. But the second was the famous Captain Morgan pose (video here). It cost the Bucs 15 yards and the Falcons scored the game-winning touchdown 56 seconds later. And Josh McCown cried after the game.
So what does this all mean? Joe really has no answer.
But the crowd that thinks ASJ has been a highly valuable cog when he is on the field is rather misguided.
July 11th, 2016 at 12:21 pm
When things get tough, the tough get going.
When defense get soft, the soft get stats.
July 11th, 2016 at 12:35 pm
He just not good imo. Everyone says he has all this talent but I’ve yet to see it. Injuries aren’t really in his control but he needs to focus more and dedicate himself to his craft. And he really needs to work on his hands, he can barely catch the ball…unless the Bucs are down a couple scores with 10 seconds left in the 4th quarter.
July 11th, 2016 at 12:43 pm
I think ASJ will have a great season and can be a game changer. Yes he has made mistakes in the past, but our entire team is learning from their mistakes to become a winning team. We must remember that the nucleus of our team is very young but we also have the best young qb that is going to make everyone around him better.
July 11th, 2016 at 12:50 pm
Brate is a HOF give me a break let’s see AJS played by himself in those games scored lets see how many games we who when Lavonte had a tackle I can tell u 2 2 yrs ago and 6 last year how many games we won when he sun came up 2 2 yrs ago and 6 last years let’s see I can go on and on football is the ultimate team sport and one guy does not lose or win a game how u make that correlation is ridiculous oh the defense giving up 70 percent competition had nothing to do with those loses I’m sure!!!!!
July 11th, 2016 at 1:04 pm
Trying to prove that a particular player’s TD catches were mostly meaningless (so thus, the player’s contributions are meaningless by Joe’s reckoning) has got to be the most meaningless “stat” I have ever heard of.
Here’s hoping that ASJ has a monster season in 2016 and puts all this silly negative speculation to rest.
July 11th, 2016 at 1:10 pm
So we don’t want ASJ to score because it means the Bucs will win? Shows how clueless Joe is!
July 11th, 2016 at 1:26 pm
Some of you guys don’t appreciate just how funny Joe is.
July 11th, 2016 at 1:29 pm
believe the debate was because your frequent use of PFF fantasy geeks catch rate stat to predict fantasy touchdowns was a representation of the stat not ASJ’s performance.
here’s example:week 17 HIGHLIGHTS ON u TUBE MIKE EVANS/jAMEIS WINSTON
44.4 5 catch rate and what it includes
4 very good completion to Evans for 99 yard
1 bad overthrow to wrong side
1 near interception to Josh Norman
1 forced throw to Evans with two defenders right in front of Evans
one pass thrown off backfoot or falling that went off Evans touched and fell incomplete
conversely Winstons completion percentage was badly affected because Mike Evans dropped 6 passes in the giants game
July 11th, 2016 at 1:44 pm
Correlation Causation
You’d think a blog which featured statistics so frequently, whether to pick apart those nasty spreadsheeters or use their findings to support their point, would pick up on this.
July 11th, 2016 at 1:45 pm
meant misrepresentation of the stat.just figured what the ninth pass was.
a defensise hold was called and that also went agaist mike Evans catch rate
because it was not a completion.
July 11th, 2016 at 1:51 pm
Bob in Valrico Says:
Thanks for the context, an important component of stat analysis.
Obviously, Evans should be cut or traded because of that horrible “completion %”.
Sometimes I wonder if I’m watching the same sport as others are…
July 11th, 2016 at 1:59 pm
Bucsfaninchina, I think those words are probably too big for Joe’s vocabulary
July 11th, 2016 at 2:06 pm
not a fantasy player or a stats geek eventhough I did a stint in statistical
analysis in the service but the eye test of mike Evans highlights tells me has got a lot of talent .Now Asj probably hasn’t earned a highlight tape but he does have one more year to prove himself.And if koetter has got his attention who knows? Koetter definitely has run a tight end friendly offense.
July 11th, 2016 at 2:15 pm
@cobraboy
ahttps://www.profootballfocus.com/wide-receiver-stat-check-catch-rates/
July 11th, 2016 at 2:18 pm
@cobraboy
alittle more here .
https://www.profootballfocus.com/wide-receiver-stat-check-catch-rates/
July 11th, 2016 at 2:21 pm
We should be rooting for ALL of our players to do well, regardless. To my knowledge, the only thing ASJ has ever done was be immature. He has yet to prove himself but he will be afforded an opportunity.
Some of these stats are head-shakers!
July 11th, 2016 at 2:27 pm
for those interested thoe highlights are actually named mike Evans /Josh norman duel.and they show up after the mike Evans highlights.
July 11th, 2016 at 2:36 pm
To this point in his career, ASJ has been more memorable to Captain Morgan Rum fans than to REAL Buc fans…Simple As That.
July 11th, 2016 at 3:11 pm
Joe why hate on players on our team. ASJ has the highest ceiling of any TE we have lets hope he gets there
July 11th, 2016 at 3:18 pm
I have never been more pissed off at a player than I was with the high stepping in that Tennessee game
And yes, there have been many many times where I’ve been upset at a guys performance on the field. But this….this display of “me” over “team” got my blood boiling more than anything I’ve ever seen on a football field. Even a pee-wee coach would bench a player for pulling that nonsense.
The guy is too talented to cut…yet. But if I were GM he’d be on pretty darn thin ice
July 11th, 2016 at 3:37 pm
Joe if it’s more of the same this year from ASJ them it is time to move on. However, IF he redeems himself then great.
July 11th, 2016 at 3:38 pm
You can’t even get away with dunking the ball over the goalpost after scoring without a flag flying. That is unsportsman like conduct, eh rubbing it in I suppose. That took the dunk out of the dunkaneers.
July 11th, 2016 at 3:40 pm
Yeah creamsicle you’re right. Jenkins should have been benched last year. If not then his antics should have been delt with…..All us fans got was a repeat of his crap all year including the last game. That’s on Lovie man, he fielded players who utterly embarrassed us last year and never held them accountable.
For me my blood boiled most during the Chicago game…….I was embarrassing enough to have nothing to do but hold my head down…….only to slump further in my seat as the Chicago fans cheered with glee as their lousy football team was manhandling us. All that should be bad enough…..but no….Jenkins has to send me to near rage as he dancing for a meaningless TD with 13 seconds left. I was sitting about 20 yards away from this disgusting display, and I swear to you, I had to exercise every bit of self restraint to keep my self from jumping onto the field.
I realize it’s only a game and the emotions are easily put away after the war but during the heat of battle it is life or death……..Having a few brewskys in me doesn’t help the matter.
It really did take me a while to get over this clowns antics and I had hoped at one point that Dirk’s first move would be to cut him. But now I realize that would have been foolish. I forgive Jenkins and look forward to seeing if he can show a new form……..But if this embarrassing crap continues he better only be asked to help the team by keeping the seats warm in the cold, or by not sitting on the Ray Jay sideline to keep some breeze on the pine. If Dirk don’t make this dude accountable i will lose respect.
July 11th, 2016 at 3:42 pm
Who is this Sefarian Jenkins guy you all speak of?
July 11th, 2016 at 3:52 pm
@creamsickle and Buccanneers
perhaps you have just highlighted the issue or background that also helped ASJ get sent to the showers.
July 11th, 2016 at 4:07 pm
Bob….assuming you are referring to when Dirk sent Jenkins off the field during OTAs a few weeks ago.
I really hope that decision of Dirk’s is a precursor to the style and accountability he will demand. Having below average players is part of sports and I can deal with that…..players who hurt the team and disrespectful fans is completely unacceptable. Sometimes players can settle issues on their own…..like a Brooks or Call used to. It’s he coaches job to make sure it gets dealt with…be it by him or the players.
July 11th, 2016 at 4:08 pm
That is a very stupid stat…it like saying Winston a terrible QB because he lost more games than he won. So, the stat guys might want a new QB based on that. ASJ basically was the only guy coughing TD’s before he got hurt…and the team was losing. Then he got healthy enough to play at the end of the season when the Bucs defense was on a holiday. So, clearly ASJ is the problem…right.
July 11th, 2016 at 4:15 pm
I have to admit that “Gerald McRuud” made me laugh out loud. Gerald McCoy seemingly bring up the same kind of divisiveness and debate between JBF regulars as Barrett Ruud did five years ago.
July 11th, 2016 at 4:17 pm
In the end, both ASJ and Brate will have a lot to prove on the field this year. The one who does? Stays. The one who doesn’t? Goes.
And if both don’t, both will likely go.
July 11th, 2016 at 4:18 pm
How often has any Buccaneers scored and the team won a game the past ten-plus years??? lol….it’s sort of a silly stat line when the team has been a perennial loser, Joe.
July 11th, 2016 at 4:35 pm
I don’t think it’s a bad stat at all. Jenkins has been wildly unreliable when the ball comes his way at key moments of the game. The stat highlights that not even a single TD even came in a winning effort. During our wins he actually has made a few plays but the brunt of my memory is him dropping TDs and dropping big plays down field that coulda/shoulda made a difference,…………..If anybody is going to use his six TDs to defend the guy they obviously don’t know half the sorry story about this dude.
July 11th, 2016 at 5:02 pm
@buccaneers
agreed and ASJ play has not really left a lot of room for his defense.That said
Koetter seems to be a no nonsense coach that will ream you out as quickly as he will pat you on the back.If Koetter can tap that potential we will have a better team.My take on ASJ is that he needs to mature.also don’t think he is as fluid a route runner over the middle so far, where Tony gonzalez excelled.
It might be me,but some drops appeared to be because of a little clumsiness
or tripping during route.
July 11th, 2016 at 5:14 pm
I should have said more difficult not because of.ASJ should be a weapon
if he is squared up facing Jameis and then work on the other stuff like route running and patterns.
July 11th, 2016 at 5:29 pm
@bonsai
you may be right.ASJ’s leash will probably be shorter.But the move to draft
Vitale should open up ASJ’s eyes.can’t imagine doug martin or Charles Sims losing that many touches except possibly in goal line situations.Barring injuries of course.
July 11th, 2016 at 5:30 pm
This is the year ASJ becomes a major contributor. I’m not sure why I feel that way, but I do. I hope he gets on track so we don’t have to use a draft pick on a TE next off season.
July 11th, 2016 at 5:41 pm
Brate should start. To hell with draft position. The one thing that matters most above all is performance on field. ASJ and brate can run a few two te sets but Brate gets the call with the ones
July 11th, 2016 at 5:45 pm
I keep forgetting about vitale. Licht isnt dumb enough to give ASJ the payday he will be looking for after one good season. Next season Vitale will be ready to contribute
July 11th, 2016 at 5:47 pm
Kinda funny The Joes have been so quiet about “Super Fan” Miko Grimes today…
Joe will be writing about Miko in the morning. –Joe
July 11th, 2016 at 6:20 pm
@joe
few are saying ASJ has been a valuable cog but most upon reflection most will say
it is sort of silly for ASJ not to score touchdowns because Joe has researched it and thinks ASJ scoring a TD is equivalent to a loss..Hell lack of touchdowns has still been a problem for this offense.
July 11th, 2016 at 6:53 pm
Kevin Says:</b?
In the context of a game, “starting” is insignificant.
Every player in certain situations is a “starter.”
Certainly ASJ has his flaws—IMO, not staying healthy for half the games in two years is by far more important than any other—but keep in mind that if it hadn’t been for ASJ’s injury we’d not know who Brate is.
The Bucs are fortunate to have several solid tight ends on their roster, ASJ included. And their talents are fairly different among the group. That’s important.
And if Licht, Koetter, Embree—and Winston—aren’t freaking out, I’m not either…
Chill, folks. It ain’t Fantasy Football.
July 11th, 2016 at 7:03 pm
Kevin Says:
Aren’t rookie contracts 4 years? This season ASJ is playing his third year. It’s not a “contract year.” That would be next season.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t ASJ a team leader in receptions before getting hurt in Game 2? Wasn’t he a primary target?
July 11th, 2016 at 7:07 pm
The best ability is availability… You can’t help the club from the ice tub… ASJ has so much glass in his jaw, he ought to be a chandelier!!!
July 11th, 2016 at 7:24 pm
As far as I can tell, no one has mentioned another ASJ play from 2014.
The Bucs scored 13 points in the 4th quarter to take a 13-10 lead vs. Minnesota, only to give up a late FG to send the game into overtime. ASJ had even caught the TD pass for the Bucs. I believe it was the very first play in OT that Glennon completed a pass to ASJ for a first down, but he then fumbled the ball, which was returned for the game-winning TD.
tickrdr
July 11th, 2016 at 7:27 pm
So joe- I assume those garbage touchdowns should not count for Winston, correct?
July 11th, 2016 at 7:31 pm
Miko has gone berserk again. Wow.
July 11th, 2016 at 7:33 pm
Cobraboy Says
“Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t ASJ a team leader in receptions before getting hurt in Game 2?”
Wow. And imagine, he held the title for almost 2 whole games!
July 11th, 2016 at 7:34 pm
Why discuss ASJ, the whole teams stinks. From Jason Licht down to the water boy, the water boy is probably the worst water boy in the NFL. Until they rack up some wins, the stench will be on ALL of them. If they cut ASJ, will they make the playoffs? hell no. If they keep ASJ, will they make the playoffs? hell no. This conversation is pointless, like the Bucs past 5 seasons.
July 11th, 2016 at 8:14 pm
I think Miko has been posting here all along!!! As bighogheinous!!!!!!
July 11th, 2016 at 8:20 pm
Yeah Joe. I commented that an ASJ TD was equal to a loss some time ago.
Welcome to the party
July 11th, 2016 at 8:38 pm
You actually summed it up here Joe. ASJ is another bust out of Washington.
July 11th, 2016 at 8:50 pm
LOL……………………She would Never let you off that easy Realist!
July 11th, 2016 at 8:57 pm
@SB with Jameis
Please!!! One twitter war with The Buc Realist, and there would be even more pictures of her face down on the concrete getting handcuffed just like the time at Dolphin stadium!!! She is easier to hook then half the sheep around here!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!
July 11th, 2016 at 8:58 pm
I think Joe has made a fair assessment up to this point. I also get that Buc fans, especially optimists like me hope that ASJ can somehow take that “on paper” talent onto the field.
I think a fair assessment after two years acknowledges that injuries have held ASJ back much as Sims rookie year was wiped out by a bad wheel and many were ready to dump Sims. Thanks goodness the Bucs had more patience.
I think though it’s impossible to ignore the fact that ASJ has a head problem and he’s not in sync with what our locker room has morphed into…largely of course thanks to #3 but he has a supporting cast of “good guys” as well.
Normally I would be down on ASJ…but I loathe showboats when it doesn’t count…scoreboard chumps!!! Having said that I do see one hopeful sign.
This locker room is really starting to gel and I think the coaches know it and will run with it. A really, really strong locker room (see New England) can find a way to keep the head cases in check. If ASJ is to have a great chance in the NFL this is his best opportunity. Hopefully the locker room can readjust ASJ’s head.
July 11th, 2016 at 9:02 pm
Come to JBF Miko!
July 11th, 2016 at 9:06 pm
You are proving my point bro. She would never be as meek as Big Hog. He has been tormented on numerous occasions, some even by me which I try to abstain from, and he still hasn’t gone haywire. Ergo, Big Hog not Miko.
July 11th, 2016 at 9:15 pm
@SB with Jamies
So what your saying, is while their racist remarks are about even, That Miko is even on a another level of crazy!!! Gotcha!!!! Duly noted!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!
July 11th, 2016 at 9:18 pm
No………what I am saying is she will attack where Big Hog has not. Pay attention son. We are on the same side.
July 11th, 2016 at 10:06 pm
BuccaneerBonzai Says:
He was a primary receiver of a rookie QB. Project his numbers and get back to me.
I’m no ASJ fan or sycophant, and have issues with his maturity. But I think the bashing of his physical abilities is absurd.
He’s not the first young guy to have maturity issues early in his career. Many go on to amazing NFL careers.
ASJ has that potential, but “potential” means “you ain’t done it yet.”
I just think the stat parsing out of context is just part of silly season…
July 11th, 2016 at 10:23 pm
When he’s on the field he’s barely contributing. When he’s off the field he’s hurt or embarrassing himself on Twitter. After two seasons, the scenarios are of equal proportions.
That’s not stats. That’s facts.
July 11th, 2016 at 11:04 pm
Simply not true Trooper. When he is on the field he contributes quite a bit. Certainly more than the Harvard tight end that everyone gushes over.
July 12th, 2016 at 12:41 am
Tampaaaaaa,he will be the number three tight end in receptions this year book it
July 12th, 2016 at 5:37 am
… In losses. And in the good games he commits dumb penalties.
July 12th, 2016 at 8:04 am
Not today Buc Realist, Ms Miko can speak for herself!
July 12th, 2016 at 8:49 am
If u think production form your highly talented X factor equals losses, your an idiot. I think your looking a little to hard at misleading numbers.