History Says Don’t Draft QB On Day 3May 5th, 2014
Joe has written the following so many times, regular readers could quote it verbatim: The Bucs will draft a quarterback at some point this weekend, whether it is Johnny Football at No. 7, Derek Carr in the second round, Jimmy Garoppolo in the third round or Aaron Murray on the third day.
But if Bears general manager Phil Emery had any sway with Jason Licht, he would advise him to forget drafting a signal-caller on Day 3. Why? Emery, per his research, said drafting QBs after the third round is a waste of a pick, documented Jeff Dickerson of BSPN Chicago.
“I just did a little study. It’s very interesting,” Emery said. “That developmental theory doesn’t hold a whole lot of water. There’s entire classes of quarterbacks, since ’06, I went back and looked at from Jay’s on — when people say developmental quarterbacks, OK, so who has gotten developed? There isn’t a single quarterback after the third round since 2006 that has been a long-term starter. So you’re either developing thirds, and most of them have been wiped out of the league. So to get a quality quarterback, you’ve got to draft them high. That 2012 class is a blip on the radar that’s unusual, highly unusual.
“Most of the starters in this league come from the first and second round. So that’s where you need to take a quarterback. So when you talk about quarterback every year, they have to be somebody that you truly believe will beat out the second and third quarterback that you perceive on your roster. And if not, history shows that you shouldn’t make that pick.”
Now Joe just knows — JUST KNOWS! — that someone, before finishing this article, is going to type, “… but, but, but Tom Brady… ”
Again, per Emery, not since 2006 has any quarterback drafted in the fourth round or lower become a reliable starter. And the 2012 draft Emery referred to as a “blip?” That would be when Russell Wilson and Nick Foles were drafted in the third round.
So Emery makes an interesting point that Bucs fans can monitor. If the Bucs believe in a quarterback, they better get him early.
Apparently, finding a starting quarterback on the third day of the draft holds about the same odds as winning a Super Bowl with a garbage quarterback.