First-Round QB Less Risky Than DEApril 14th, 2014
Even with all the media coverage of the NFL, there still exists a secretive blossoming underworld inside many franchises. It’s a world where spreadsheets and hard drives and stats geeks try to craft an edge with information.
The Bucs hired their own master of numbers this year, Tyler Oberly. So Joe finds it interesting that Mr. Oberly shared an analysis earlier this month from his old website, TheSidelineView.com.
One of the numbers crunchers there, former high school football coach and longtime national analyst John Harris, studied NFL defensive ends and quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 2002-2011. His data concluded that defensive ends were “total busts” 42.5 percent of the time, whereas QBs only busted 36.7 percent of the time.
Quarterbacks also showed to be average or below — aka a notch better than “total bust — 16.7 percent of the time. DEs only hit that level 10 percent of the time.
Superstars were landed at each position at about a 20 percent clip.
So what does this mean? Well, of course, it means almost nothing. But it is the kind of data being presented to Lovie Smith and Jason Licht behind the walls of One Buc Palace. This type of number crunching is what, for example, helps craft trends like staying away from running backs early in the draft and not being fear-stricken by talented quarterbacks.