The Bucs’ Troubling Playoff Picture
December 4th, 2012
Damn, the Bucs took a punch in the gut this weekend — and with the Redskins’ Monday night victory — as it relates to their playoff hopes and dreams.
At 6-6, the Bucs are a game back of Seattle in the hunt for the final NFC Wild Card spot, except now the Bucs are tied with the Vikings, Redskins and Cowboys. Sadly, the Bucs lose the usually critical head-to-head tiebreaker with Washington and Dallas.
Also, the Bucs now have one more loss in NFC conference play than Seattle and Washington. Conference record is one of the secondary tiebreakers after head-to-head results.
It’s safe to assume the Bucs will need to win their final four and go 10-6 to get into the postseason. Except for Minnesota, their competition doesn’t exactly have brutal schedules, and Seattle has three of its final four at home, where the Seahawks are always tough to beat.
SEAHAWKS (7-5) SCHEDULE
ARIZONA
@Buffalo
49ers
RAMSVIKINGS (6-6) SCHEDULE
BEARS
@ Rams
@ Houston
PACKERSDALLAS (6-6) SCHEDULE
@Cincy
PITTSBURGH
NEW ORLEANS
@WashingtonREDSKINS (6-6) SCHEDULE
BALTIMORE
@Browns
@Eagles
DALLAS
It’s one week at a time, and it’s a good thing that the Skins and Dallas still must face each other. But the odds are flimsy that the Bucs land in the postseason with a 9-7 record.
December 4th, 2012 at 2:20 am
What makes this whole playoff picture even more interesting is the fact that 3 of the NFC divisions Besides the NFC south could be up for grabs, for instance giants have a very brutal schedule . saints @ Ravens @ falcons amdceaglezxwho own them! San Fran can fall apart as well, they still play at Seattle and @ new England as well as Dolphins and cards!! So u never know other doors can still open up, gotta love the excitement they call the playoff picture mess!!!
December 4th, 2012 at 2:25 am
What makes this whole playoff picture even more interesting is the fact that 3 of the NFC divisions Besides the NFC south could be up for grabs, for instance giants have a very brutal schedule . saints @ Ravens @ falcons and eagles who own them! San Fran can fall apart as well, they still play at Seattle and @ new England as well as Dolphins and cards!! So u never know other doors can still open up, gotta love the excitement they call the playoff picture mess!!!
December 4th, 2012 at 2:39 am
Not to be a DB, but when this season started no one thought we would be as good as we are! I think that we should stop worrying about the playoffs and focus on the Eagles! I love the BUCS and was in my moms belly at the first home game ever played, all I want is this team to become a contender year in and year out, with a championship here and there! Keep up the great year and lets beat the Eagles! Get some W’s and the playoffs will come.
December 4th, 2012 at 4:49 am
I keep reminding myself that I expected an 8-8 team AT BEST so this season already looks like a success.
With that said..any hopes for the playoffs this season ended with this last game.
People need to be reminded how bad this same team was at this point last year. It was beyond pathetic, it was embarrassing!
This team lost 10 straight games last season and they blatantly quit in about 8 of those games. This team THIS year fights their ass off until the very last second.
Progress! Ain’t it grand?!?
December 4th, 2012 at 6:26 am
All that shows is we have a shot on paper.
No way the Vikes or Cowboys go 3-1 with those schedules.
The Skins have a fairly easy schedule BUT I can’t see Dallas rolling over week 17 to let them in the playoffs.
The only one I see as being a real issue is Seattle, they already have a game on us but have 3 divisional games left, the problem is somehow the league has scheduled them to play all 3 at home with just the Bills as an away game, I just don’t see them losing that last spot.
December 4th, 2012 at 7:29 am
I go back to when we played the Saints earlier in the season and say that’s a game Josh gave away. He’s been in the league too long to continue to make the same mistakes and excuses i.e., new coaches new system.You gotta love rookie QB’s Russell Wilson and RGIII leadership. They both have new coaches, new players, new system, and they both are new. Leadership is what they both possess and display on the gridiron. They have that determination look in their eyes wherein Josh has that deernation look in his eyes. In 2009 Jeff Garcia sent Josh a message regarding missing the opportunity to get a first down by sliding before making the easy first down because a 190 lb cornerback was attempting to make a tackle on him. He said Josh cannot play like that in this league. My belief is that Josh needs a personal coach to toughen him up. He’s too soft and timid. Once he gets over that hump, then you will see an elite QB. Watch when he’s in the pocket how easily he’s raddled. He has the size and arm but does not possess what the elite QB’s have… the heart of a true leader,yet. It’s not good when others around the league make comments that another team’s QB is soft and plays scared under pressure. How do you continue to overthrow a receiver when there’s no pressure in the pocket?
December 4th, 2012 at 8:37 am
Does anyone really believe we win four in a row with OUR schedule?
December 4th, 2012 at 8:58 am
@stick. With out a doubt
That said our biggest problem is Seattle they have to drop two games which doesn’t look likely. Its unfortunate because we had plenty of oppertunities to have a better record than we do. Either way 9-7 or 10-6 great start to the Schiano order and with some offseason adjustments a playoff run is all but certain next year.
December 4th, 2012 at 9:01 am
@dmatt
Freeman gave that game away against the Saints? Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! I was there it was a good game. This is my opinion, but V. Jax lost that game. 1st getting ran from behind on a 95 yard run were 96 yards would have been a TD( I know he had his calf injury) 2nd not knowing were his feet our on the 2nd to last play. 2 critical errors on his part.
What do you want from Josh he’s still learning. You want Dan Orlovsky, Luke McCown,Byron Leftwich or mabey Jeff Garcia back there playing QB. Josh isn’t the greatest QB, but he is our best option moving forward as of right now.
Personally it’s not Josh I feel is losing up games. It’s those DB back there not covering. That D-line not getting pressure on a QB. Stop pointing at the guy scoring points and start complaining about the side thats giving up so many points. We’ve never had an offense score this many points ever!!! Any of our past Bucs teams would be 0-12 with this defense. That guy Mike Sheridan coaching our Defense, well he got fired from the Giants for doing pretty much what he’s doing now. If anyone needs to be replaced it’s him.
December 4th, 2012 at 9:04 am
Hell, I’m happy with 9-7 maybe even 8-8, no one expected anything but some improvement over last season, yeah, it’s nice to dream, but with the O-line injuries (we lost 2 pro bowlers, and started 2 guys with limited experience to say the least, not many teams can survive that) and the weak play at CB, I’ll be happy with either of those two records. We now have a baseline to work from, to build a team to sustain winning over the long haul takes time, especially when you basically started from nothing (some would say less than nothing). We know our areas of weakness and I’m sure Schiano/Dominik have a plan to strengthen them, we also know our areas of strength and again I’m sure that the two of them have a plan to make those areas even stronger. We are a long way from where we were at this point last season, enjoy it, and know, it’s just gonna keep getting better and better.
December 4th, 2012 at 9:11 am
@dmatt—
Freeman gave away that Saints game? What in the world are you talking about? He basically threw 5 TD passes in that game. Our defense played quite possibly the worst 2nd quarter in the NFL this year.
December 4th, 2012 at 9:28 am
dmatt Says: December 4th, 2012 at 7:29 am
My belief is that Josh needs a personal coach to toughen him up. He’s too soft and timid.
.
First, you are wrong. Josh has taken plenty of hits. He’s being taught to trust his offensive line and they have been failing him drastically. Yes…there have been a couple plays each game when he’s had plenty of time to throw…but those are not enough when the targets are well covered.
Second, revisionist history you have there. Freeman did not cost us the Saints game. If anything he put us in positiion to win it.
I think Dallas and the Vikings coulsd easily go 3-1
December 4th, 2012 at 9:42 am
Sorry tablet cut me off
Dallas and Vikings could likely go 3-1, but it won’t matter because of the Seahawks. They would have to lose at least a couple games with an easy schedule.
As to whether the Bucs can win-out…yes, given the remaining schedule it’s possible. The toughest team left is the Falcons and they will be resting their starters. But again…they Seahawks. They could also win the rest of their games.
It doesn’t really matter to me. I’ve alway felt that if you can win at least one playoff game there is no point in going. All it does is raise ticket prices the next year. While anything is possible with this team…I just don’t think they are ready to contend. Not with all the injuries. Had the team stayed mostly healthy I would feel otherwise.
Of course, getting into the playoffs is good because it gives us another game to watch, but with our secondary we would be watching an almost sure watch and that would only add to the frustration of the fans.
So I will be happy with 9-7, which is what I predicted before the season started (with a small chance at 10-6). I think that with all the injuries causing backups to play we fans should be happy. Imagine how good this team will be next year with the returning starters and some freshly drafted/signed defensive backs.
This is likely Ronde’s last year so I’m going to enjoy watching him break the record over the last few weeks.
December 4th, 2012 at 10:59 am
10-6 is not going to cut it. This team will not make the playoffs. I have been a fan since 1979 when I was only 9. This team has won only one clutch game that I can recall, the 2002 NFC Championship. It just isn’t in the cards for this team. There is always something holding them back, and I think that it is called fate.
December 4th, 2012 at 11:28 am
the seachickens are getting all the breaks this year. maybe it runs out just in time. i will hold out hope. dallas’ schedule looks brutal to me.
December 4th, 2012 at 11:39 am
Bucs will finish 10-6 and make the playoffs,I have been sayin this before the year even started.Book it!!!!!!!!!!!!!
December 4th, 2012 at 11:49 am
Chiefbucsfan…I am glad the team does not share your pessimistic views. I have been a Bucs fan since they started as well, and I have seen a great deal of bad play and some truly great play as well. There are teams with no super bowl rings out there as well. Only one team a year gets to go. How can you have been a fan during the Dungy year and say this team has never had a “clutch” game? That defense was brutal, maybe they did not win 5 super bowls under Dungy, but they won plenty. What about the win to shut down the eagles stadium the same year as the NFC championship that was pretty sweet…not to mention that entire play-off run. What about all those epic battles with Sapp and Favre, we won a bunch. Even going back to the Doug Williams days we had some pretty “clutch” wins…I am not sure what ‘clutch” means to you, but how on earth could the SB game not have been “clutch”?
December 4th, 2012 at 11:51 am
Bucobruce has the power of positive thinking! Right on!
December 4th, 2012 at 11:58 am
dmatt…If only Freeman could have thrown six touchdowns! Damn him! You were joking right? I do not think a Bucs QB has ever thrown 5 TDs in one game.
Some of you guys need to go back in history and check out all the “elite” QBs Tampa has drafted. it is a pretty good list. Only one lived up to his potential, but Unfotunatly Steve Young did not do it here. I am a huge Doug Williams fan, but he was not “elite” her or in Washington. Go back and check, Tampa has had a bunch of first round guys that never became elite in Tampa or anywhere else, but they had college potential. Freeman is the real deal, even if he is not elite he is above average and the best we have ever had.
December 4th, 2012 at 1:10 pm
dont be surprised if the bears lose 2 more and give up that other wildcard spot. i think they are @min, vs GB, something else, and @det. not easy.
December 4th, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Always figured the losses to the Giants,Redskins and Falcons would haunt this team. The Bucs lost their close game and Seattle and Washington have won theirs.
December 4th, 2012 at 2:01 pm
The Eagles and Rams are playing very tough football right now, so any Bucs homer who is automatically putting a “W” next to those games might want to think again.
This Bucs team looks exactly like an 8-8 team, which is what I fully expect to be their record.
December 4th, 2012 at 2:38 pm
I said 9-7 at the beginning of the season and I’m sticking to it. My predictions on the season have come true for the most part, except Atlanta flopping. I guess they’ll save their flopping for where they are best at it… the post season.
Still, I correctly predicted the Bucs would be about what the are right now and that the Panthers would still stink AND that the Eagles would be struggling and be having a QB controversy right now.
As for the competition, you can count the Cowboys out. They are playing bad football right now. They have to travel to Cincy which is a guaranteed loss, the play Pittsburgh and New Orleans at home, and Washington on the road. They will likely be the underdogs in all of those games. They would be lucky to not go 6-10.
Vikings are done and have been pretenders for most of the season. It wouldn’t surprise me if they ended up 6-10 as well. That being said, they have a shot against Chicago this week as Chicago is fading at the end again.
The Seahawks lead the pack right now at 7-5 and they are playing good football. As it stands now, one half of their outstanding CB duo is set to appeal his suspension on the 14th which would make him unavailable for the final 3 games if he loses. Sherman’s appeal has to be coming soon as well and those two are extremely valuable to the Seahawks D. I don’t see them going on the road with or without him and winning in frigid Buffalo and if one or both are gone at home against San Francisco they could very well drop that game as well. I think the Seahawks finish the season 9-7.
The Redskins are playing the best football out of all the playoff hopefuls. I could see them winning all 4 remaining games. I could also see them dropping their next two games and finishing 8-8. They lose at least one game in my opinion and finish no better than 9-7.
The Bucs have to win at least 3 games just to have a shot at the postseason. In the event of a 3 way tie between the Buca, Seahawks, and Redskins, the Redskins head-to-head tiebreaker is thrown out so that goes in our favor.
Whatever happens, the team HAS o get hot regardless. Limping into the playoffs and getting destroyed is just as bad as not making it. See the 2010 KC Chiefs for reference.
Another team to watch that might be limping down the stretch is the Bears. We sholdn’t be so quick to annoint them, Wildcard Team #1. If they lose on the road to Minnesota they fall to 8-5, then they have the Packers at home (who are competing for a 1st round bye), and two more road games (at Arizona, and at Detroit). I can honestly say the Bears have a very good shot at finishing 9-7 on the season.
A quick prediction:
Bucs 9-7
Redskins 9-7
Seahawks 9-7
Bears 9-7
Vikings 7-9
Cowboys 6-10
That’s two wildcard berths for whomever gets the tie breakers.
December 4th, 2012 at 2:40 pm
@FLBoy
really??? The Eagles are playing tough football? The Eagles suck. Foles sucks and Bryce is ok. The ALMOST won 1 game against the Cowgirls and all of a sudden they are playing tough football?
The Eagles have virtually no Defense (I sure you seen how many points they given up in that game).
Foles cannot lead the Eagles to a win because he is not a good QB.
I feel like I am wasting my time even discussing this with you but ol’ well.
December 4th, 2012 at 2:44 pm
McBuc Says:
December 4th, 2012 at 11:58 am
dmatt…If only Freeman could have thrown six touchdowns! Damn him! You were joking right? I do not think a Bucs QB has ever thrown 5 TDs in one game.
Some of you guys need to go back in history and check out all the “elite” QBs Tampa has drafted. it is a pretty good list. Only one lived up to his potential, but Unfotunatly Steve Young did not do it here. I am a huge Doug Williams fan, but he was not “elite” her or in Washington. Go back and check, Tampa has had a bunch of first round guys that never became elite in Tampa or anywhere else, but they had college potential. Freeman is the real deal, even if he is not elite he is above average and the best we have ever had.
__________________________________________
Quick lis of Buc franchise QB hopefulst:
#1 Doug Williams
Gave up #1 for Jack Thompson
Gave up #2 for Steve Young
#1 Vinny Testaverde
gave up #1 for Chris Chandler
#4 Craig Erickson (got #1 in return)
#1 Trent Dilfer
#2 Shaun King
#1 Josh Freeman
December 4th, 2012 at 2:46 pm
ryanw Says:
December 4th, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Always figured the losses to the Giants,Redskins and Falcons would haunt this team. The Bucs lost their close game and Seattle and Washington have won theirs.
++++++++++++++++
What? So close wins against the Panthers twice, Raiders, and Chargers don’t count?
December 4th, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Pete Dutcher:
Sorry, but the Vikes and Cowboys could not “easily” go 3-1. They are, by far, the two worst teams of the remaining playoff hopefuls. 1-3 is more likely from either of them.
December 4th, 2012 at 2:58 pm
@Kansas
Yes, apparently you are wasting your time discussing because that was a Cowboys team that EASILY beat the Bucs. You’re only as good as your last game and the Eagles played tough. If you’re expecting an automatic win you might be in for a surprise.
December 4th, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Brandon
Funny thing is, for as many hopefuls at QB the Bucs have had, we’ve had 5 go on to other teams and reach the Super Bowl.
Doug Williams, Trent Dilfer, and Steve Young won it! Chris Chandler and Steve DeBerg(Chris’s back-up) went but lost.
Only one with the Bucs was Shaun King, who went and won, but as a third string back-up.
December 4th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
McBuc
I have followed since 1976 also, and agree!
Maybe chiefsbucfan meant “clutch” purses, which in that case, we did not have any.
December 4th, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Maybe that Bruce Allen is not as big an idiot as people around here say.
Looked like a good young team last night.
December 4th, 2012 at 5:07 pm
PLAYOFFS?? YOU GUYS ARE TALKING PLAYOFFS???
It took Schiano 3 years to win games 4 games at Rutgers and you guys have him running the table to make the playoffs.
All kidding aside, I will give the Little General major props if he can achieve .500 in his 1st year here.
PLAYOFFS???
December 5th, 2012 at 6:58 am
Brandon Says:
December 4th, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Pete Dutcher:
Sorry, but the Vikes and Cowboys could not “easily” go 3-1. They are, by far, the two worst teams of the remaining playoff hopefuls. 1-3 is more likely from either of them.
.
My meaning was that they could easily lose at least one game. Maybe two. Only winning one is beyond reasonable.
Regardless, the Seahawks will block us.
December 5th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
I”m confident that Vegas will have both the Cowboys and Vikings down as underdogs for all remaining games this season. They’d be lucky to win more than 2 games between them.
December 9th, 2012 at 6:41 am
There is still hope for the Bucs. Yes the Seahawks seem to be the main roadblock right now, but what everybody seems to forget is that they will most likely be without their two best defensive players for the last three games. Both of their starting CBs are huge contributors for both the run and the pass on that D. Not having both of them WILL be a huge negative for Seatle. They will already lose one of them for the Arizona game, but that really shouldn’t matter too much against the Cards. But not having both of them for the Bills, 49ers, and Rams will be a huge hill to climb. I can easily see them dropping 2 of those last 3 games. Plus, their #3 CB, Trufant has a injured hamstring and could be out for the next 2 games. Don’t count the Bucs out so soon. There is still plenty of hope left. If they win the next 3 games, it could come down to beating Atlanta to get into the playoffs . . . witch should not be as hard as it sounds due to the fact that Atlanta will most likely sit most of their star players for that last game of the season. They will play it safe and not want to get any of their studs hurt, especially since we already showed we can play a tough physical game against them. They don’t care about us, they want to be healthy for their playoff run.